Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic: Final Score Predictions For Tonight's Game

For the third time in the last week, the Atlanta Hawks will face the Orlando Magic, but tonight's game will be the most consequential of the three. The winner of tonight's NBA Play-In Tournament game is going to clinch a playoff spot and set up a matchup with the defending NBA Champion Boston Celtics in the first round. Orlando and Atlanta are plenty familiar with each other and it will be interesting to see how the matchup plays out.

Our own Rohan Raman broke down the game earlier today:

"In the regular season, the Hawks finished 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 14th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 15th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate.

The Hawks ranked 27th in PPG allowed, 28th in field goal percentage allowed, 16th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Orlando's offense has been a work-in-progress for most of the season. They finished 28th in points per game, 27th in FG%, 22nd in 3PA, 30th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 16th in turnovers, and 27th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 26th in points per 100 possessions, 29th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in turnover percentage, 13th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 2nd in free throw rate.

Fortunately for them, the Magic have an excellent defense to fall back on when their offense is struggling. They finished 1st in PPG allowed, 15th in field goal percentage allowed, 1st in three-point attempts allowed, and 20th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando is 2nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and 10th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

One important key to the Magic's success against Atlanta has been their ability to draw free throws. A big part of their recent win over the Hawks was getting 31 free throw attempts to Atlanta's 22. A lot of that comes from how difficult it is to stop Paolo Banchero from scoring without fouling. Whether it's Mo Gueye, Zaccharie Risacher or someone else, the Hawks are going to have to be very disciplined against Banchero and do everything they can to not make it easy for him.

Speaking of making things easier for Orlando, the Magic capitalize on offenses that are careless with possession. They rank 2nd in the league with a 16.9% turnover percentage. Atlanta on the other hand is near the bottom of the league in turnovers, ranking 22nd on offense with a 15.0% turnover percentage per Cleaning the Glass. In the first three games against Orlando this season, the Hawks averaged 14.3 turnovers per game, including games where they had 18 and one where they had 16. Orlando loves to create chaos with turnovers and the Hawks have to limit that if they want to advance to the playoffs.

Despite the offensive burden placed on him, Trae Young has excelled as a scorer against Orlando this season. He's averaged 25 points and 9 assists against the Magic while often propelling the offense down the clutch. However, he hasn't been very efficient, finishing with a below-average TS% of 55.9 in his four games vs Orlando and 9-36 from beyond the arc. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Franz Wagner are both excellent perimeter defenders who can limit Young while Cory Joseph can hold his own despite his age. Because the Magic are likely going to load up on stopping Young, it becomes even more critical for Dyson Daniels, Georges Niang and Zaccharie Risacher to relieve pressure by challenging the Magic from deep. Daniels and Niang have both really struggled against the Magic as shooters this year. Daniels hasn't made a single three against Orlando all season while Niang has only shot 35.7% from deep on a mere three attempts per game in his three appearances against the Magic. Drawing up catch-and-shoot opportunities for Niang and Daniels have to be a priority. It is unlikley the Hawks have enough shooting to bury the Magic by taking a lot of threes, but they can gain an edge by picking their spots better. On defense, Daniels has to be able to turn Orlando's ball-handlers over and give the Hawks transition opportunities. He finished the season as the NBA steals leader and a real candidate for DPOY, but that hasn't necessarily translated to being lockdown against the Magic.

Fortunately, Risacher has actually been quite reliable as a floor-spacer against one of the toughest perimeter defenses in the league. He has made multiple threes in each of the last three games against the Magic and the Hawks are definitely going to need that streak to hold true. Although Risacher can certainly get hot and carry the Hawks' shooting as he did against the Nets, it's hard to rely on that against a much better Orlando defense. Atlanta is going to also need a decent scoring night from Caris LeVert, who has been the Hawks' most reliable bench scorer. LeVert has been an excellent off-ball fit, especially when cutting into space off of Young's gravity. Those easy points will be vital for reducing the pressure on Young to create his own shot.

While it's hard to take anything meaningful away from the regular season finale against Orlando, it was good to see Terance Mann bounce back after being held scoreless in the 119-112 loss to the Magic that relegated Atlanta to the No. 8 seed in the regular season. Mann played 30 minutes and had 19 points while going 9-14 from the field. The Hawks are going to need his activity on defense and ability to provide an offensive spark at times in tonight's game. If he can carry that momentum forward, it would be very helpful for the Hawks' chances in this one.

In the paint, the battle between Onyeka Okongwu and Wendell Carter Jr is going to be important to watch. Okongwu was excellent against the full Magic lineup in his last outing, scoring 30 points and grabbing 14 rebounds while nailing four of his seven threes. It's hard to expect a repeat performance, but Okongwu stretching the floor is a wrinkle to the Hawks' gameplan that opponents aren't always prepared for. While Okongwu had a much better scoring game, Carter had a great defensive game with 3 blocks and six steals against the Hawks. If Okongwu can effectively neutralize Carter, that places even more creation duties on Banchero and Wagner.

On defense, the Hawks will need to do a better job of countering the Magic's rotation players than they did during their 119-112 loss. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was particularly excellent, nailing three of his six attempts from deep and burning Atlanta's defense when Orlando needed to extend its lead. Caldwell-Pope was the most efficient, but Wagner, Banchero, Joseph and Caleb Houstan all finished with two made threes. Neither Wagner or Banchero are particularly good three-point shooters, but they are star players who can come up with those shots. The key is making sure that the rest of the Magic aren't able to get good looks on the perimeter. It is going to be a big challenge for the Hawks, but they do have most of their rotation available for this game."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Magic are 5 point favorites against the Hawks tonight and the total is set at 216.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prediction

The Hawks are underdogs in this game for a reason. Of course the Jalen Johnson injury gets the most attention, but not having Larry Nance or Clint Capela to help deal with the size or Orlando is tough. The Magic's defense has been able to cause chaos and create turnovers against Atlanta and the Hawks have not been able to slow down Paolo Banchero in any of the three matchups he played in against Atlanta. The supporting cast for the Hawks is going to be key in this game, but I think Orlando has too many matchup advantages against the Hawks and I think it will be the Magic that go on to face the Celtics on Sunday.

Final Score; Magic 113, Hawks 107

Additional Links

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic: Spread & Over/Under Predictions For Tonight's Play-In Game

Hawks vs Magic: Game Preview, Betting Odds, Injury Report, Projected Starting Lineups For Today's Game

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic: Official Injury Report For Tomorrow's NBA Play-In Tournament Game