After 100 lottery simulations, here's where the Hornets land

The lottery can be somewhat random, but here's what happened for the Hornets.

Apr 5, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg (2) dribbles the ball against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the semifinals of the men's Final Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament at the Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The lottery is coming up soon, and it's when the NBA will decide the Charlotte Hornets' fate. Do they get Cooper Flagg or at least one of the top-three prospects befitting of their top-three worst record? Or do they get unlucky yet again and fall lower and possibly out of the top five altogether? After 100 simulations of the lottery, here's what happened.

To get this out of the way, the odds of winning the lottery are 14% for the Hornets. In those 100 simulations, they won it 15 times, so a 1% increase from the odds in the real lottery. That's still not all that inspiring, but there are a lot of teams gunning for that first overall pick in the lottery.

How often did they move up otherwise? They moved from the third pick to the second pick 16 times. Charlotte stayed static at three overall 14 times, which means they overall picked in the top three 45 out of 100 times.

Mar 21, 2025; Raleigh, NC, USA; Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) celebrates during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Unfortunately, that means they fell out of the top three more often than not, which is bad news in a draft class with arguably three franchise-altering prospects. Maybe they can get VJ Edgecombe if they pick fourth, which they did 10 times in the 100 simulations.

Charlotte picked fifth nine times, so the odds aren't as good. Sixth is unfortunately the most common landing spot for Charlotte in both lottery odds and after the simulations. They landed there an astounding 32 times, which is up from the 26% chance they have in lottery odds. Kon Knueppel might just be a Hornet after all.

The absolute worst-case scenario is for them to fall to seventh. They can fall no further, but they can drop all the way there. Fortunately, that only happened four times in the simulations. The Hornets have not had the top pick often at all, despite generally being a bad franchise, and only time will tell if this was their year to get lucky.

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