Why Ace Bailey isn't an ideal option for the Charlotte Hornets' continued rebuild

Breaking down the pros and cons of Bailey's game and why they wouldn't mesh in Charlotte.

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Ace Bailey is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft. With the Charlotte Hornets owning a premium selection near the top of the order, Bailey's name has been, and will continue to be, linked to the Queen City before the lottery balls decide their fate.

However, his game has a myriad of holes that don't necessarily fit what Jeff Peterson and Charles Lee are building in Charlotte. Let's take a look at Bailey's skillset and make the case against him landing with the Hornets.

Bailey's offensive repertoire

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There's no doubt that the freshman from Rutgers is an exciting offensive player. But, in this writer's opinion, his game is not a fit with Charlotte's current 'core four.'

Ace Bailey's diet of contested jumpers and awkward, fading finishes outside of the paint is like eating ice cream for dinner: fun in the moment, but ultimately unsatisfying when you end up trying to fall asleep with a tummy ache. On drives, Bailey takes long, arcing paths to the basket because he doesn't have enough strength or power to bully defenders with his rail-thin frame, decimating his rim-finishing numbers.

These numbers confirm what the eye test showed about Ace Bailey the guy cannot get by defenders at all, he’s probably the player I would be least excited about the Sixers landing if they keep their pick.

(Source: r/NBA_Draft) pic.twitter.com/8huNV0eGNi

— Hoops Reference (@HoopsReference) April 29, 2025

His feet are rarely pointing at the basket when he attempts shots in the paint (an important interior scoring trait that Tom Crean, former head coach at Marquette, Indiana, and Georgia spoke about here), forcing him into off-balance looks around the cup.

Bailey lacks elite ball-handling skills and a go-to move on the perimeter, so he fires up long twos and threes with a hand in his face more often than analytically-savvy minds prefer. He's a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer who eats off of max-difficulty attempts that will become even more difficult at the NBA-level.

Just to clarify, he was 99th percentile in the *amount* of isolation possessions he had, he was only 42nd percentile in points per possession on isolation baskets

— Nick Kalinowski (@kalidrafts) April 27, 2025

It's easy to imagine Bailey dominating high school-aged opponents on the grassroots circuits due to his unteachable physical gifts. Along every step of his basketball journey Bailey was bigger, stronger, and more skilled than anyone he faced, making that tough shot diet palatable. However, his flaws were exposed at Rutgers, and they'll be magnified even greater as a professional.

The case for Bailey is two-fold. One: the shots go in. When the Chattanooga, Tennessee native gets cooking, it's a sight to behold. His pièce de résistance, a 39 point outing in Bloomington against conference rival Indiana, was a masterclass in high-difficulty shot making.

One of the most ridiculous shotmaking displays you're gonna see from anyone in college basketball but especially a 6'9 18-year-old. Ace Bailey's ability to make tough shots is basically unmatched.

39 Points on 16/29 FG & 4/8 3FG pic.twitter.com/mpgZWGbRnA

— Keandre Ashley (@HoopIntelllect) January 3, 2025

Two: he has all of the tools to be an elite third option on an NBA team.

The jumper is clean, he's a fine finisher off of shots created by others, and as the season progressed, Bailey became a serviceable offensive rebounder. If he re-wires his basketball brain and allows himself to become a ball-moving, glass-cleaning, rim-running, floor-stretching power forward? The sky is the limit, and he'd be a great fit alongside Charlotte's ball-dominant guard LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

But, if Bailey comes to the NBA with his patented 'let me cook' mindset, it won't be long before we talk about him with the Derrick Williams and Josh Jackson Jr.'s of the world. 'Selfish' isn't the right word to describe Bailey's offensive game, but what we've seen of him thus far doesn't jibe with Lee and Peterson's desired high-motor, team-first archetype.

Breaking down Bailey's defense

Mar 12, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; USC Trojans guard Desmond Claude (1) shoots the ball while Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey (4) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Ace has all of the tools in his toolbox to be a top-notch defender...he just doesn't use them.

He stands at 6'10" with a seemingly plus wingspan that would terrorize opposing offenses as low-man helper and passing lane disruptor. The problem is that he often looks disengaged and uninterested in defending.

Bailey falls asleep when he's not guarding the man with the ball, making his high-end tool box collect dust due to his inattentive nature.

As an on-ball defender, Bailey swallows up drivers with his pterodactyl arms, and he has the potential to be a switchable, multi-positional defending force that an astute defensive mind can play with.

But just like his offensive, Bailey needs work to access those tools on a consistent basis before he's a fully-finished game-wrecking prospect.

Why Bailey doesn't fit in Charlotte

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Adding Bailey to Charlotte's core would accentuate the weaknesses that Charles Lee is already trying to mitigate. Both Ball and Miller are ball-dominant, perimeter oriented players that struggle to get to the basket. Adding Bailey, an archetypal comp in that regard, would make it even more difficult for the Hornets to create good looks on offense.

Charlotte's three-point shooting percentage in 2024-25 was abysmal, but it wasn't because they employed bad shooters. It's because they employed poor shot creators.

Bailey doesn't project as a high-level shot creator (his 8.3% assist percengate as a college freshman was a below average mark), and he doesn't being enough juice on day-one like comparable prospect VJ Edgecombe to make up for his poor fit on offense.

If the Hornets fall in love with Bailey and select him on draft night, that would be a defensible and sensible decision. However, the red flags are glaring, and this writer would prefer another prospect to don the purple and teal (Edgecombe, Kon Knueppel, or Collin Murray-Boyles) if Charlotte slips in the lottery.

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