ESPN BPI gives Hornets solid chance against Mavericks despite historic losing stretch

The Hornets (14-43) conclude their nine-game road trip on Thursday as they head to the Lone Star State to face off against the Dallas Mavericks (31-28).

This will be the second and final matchup of the season between the two squads that were the talk of the trade deadline, with the Hornets stealing a 110-105 victory in the fourth quarter the first time around.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, the Hornets have a 43.4% chance of coming away with a victory in tonight’s matchup. Considering that the Hornets are on a historic losing streak, a better than 2-5 chance of winning against a team currently seeded for the play-in tournament in the Western Conference feels generous. When you take into account the injury-led variance from players Anthony Davis, Derrick Lively II, Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington, and Daniel Gafford, the closer matchup prediction becomes a bit more clear.

Charlotte's recent games

Feb 25, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard KJ Simpson (25) and Golden State Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski (2) chase a loose ball in the third quarter at the Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The aforementioned losing streak has seen the Hornets average margin of defeat over the last four games climb to a staggering 36.25 points per game. LaMelo Ball has especially struggled during the two games he played over this stretch, shooting just 4/23 from the field and 1/11 from three point range.

The 94.1 offensive rating over those games would be the sixth-worst mark over a single season in NBA history, and the lowest since the 2002-03 Nuggets. The other end of the court is actually somehow worse, with a defensive rating of 129.4 that would be the single-worst rating in NBA history over the course of an entire season. First-year Head Coach Charles Lee certainly has his work cut out for him over the final stretch of the season to ensure that there is a purpose behind the Hornets' final 25 games.

Dallas' recent games

Feb 25, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Dallas Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd during the first half against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Mavericks are 1-2 since the All-Star break, and 5-5 overall since the blockbuster trade that saw Luka Doncic traded to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, Davis exited the first game he played with his new team with a left abductor strain that has seen him sidelined since.

In Davis’ absence, Kyrie Irving has kept the Mavericks afloat by averaging 31.8 points, 3.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game on 48/43/96 shooting splits. Irving has also played an exhausting 39.6 minutes per game in the month of February, a testament to the team’s reliance on the 32-year-old guard in the post-Doncic era.

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