How the NBA's Wild New Lottery System Affects the Hornets Going Forward

The NBA's wild new lottery system takes effect from 2027 on. This most recent lottery, in which the Charlotte Hornets landed 14th, was the last of its kind for at least a few years. The league adopted an aggressive change to combat tanking.

I covered how this might've affected the Hornets retroactively, and I mentioned how much I hate this new system. It is going to leave the three teams with the worst records without the best odds of getting the top pick, despite, in this scenario, being the actual three worst teams.

Nevertheless, as much as other fans and I might huff and puff, what's done is done. Fortunately, the Hornets are not going to be in that conversation anymore. We got better at the right time. It will affect Charlotte, though.

Charlotte owns three first-round picks in 2027, and the new system could affect all three of them. Let's start with the Hornets' own pick. It's hard to say where the Hornets will end up next year, but the new lottery could help in this case.

The lottery has been expanded to include all Play-In teams regardless of result. So if Charlotte makes it as the 7-10 seed and then advances out to the playoffs, they'd still have a lottery pick with minor odds of moving up.

The Hornets expect to avoid the Play-In, but there are going to be a lot of improved teams in contention for the playoffs, so it's going to be crowded. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Hornets were better in 2026-27 but still couldn't avoid the Play-In. Now, that could be the ideal situation.

If they can land the seventh seed out of the Play-In, they'd be in the best spot among all Play-In squads while still possessing a lottery pick. That's where the new system could lead to inadvertent micro-tanking, as potential playoff teams might tank to slide to seventh instead of sixth.

Dallas Mavericks forward Khris Middleton (20) and Charlotte Hornets forward center Moussa Diabate (14) fight for a rebound | Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images

The Hornets own the Dallas Mavericks' 2027 pick, and it's top-two protected. This is where the lottery has a chance to totally ruin the Hornets. The Mavericks will be better next year, but will they move out of that middle range in the lottery, which now has the best odds of a top pick?

That's unlikely, and the basketball gods have never smiled on the Hornets too much, so would anyone be surprised if the Mavericks got better, got into that range, but still landed a top-two pick and kept their choice?

If it doesn't convey, the Hornets get a 2028 second-round pick. It's hard to say how much of a gut-punch that would be, and Adam Silver just made it a little more likely.

Finally, the Hornets own the Heat's 2027 pick, but it's lottery-protected. This one is much simpler to assess. The Heat now have a wider net to protect the pick. Instead of being protected 1-14, it's now protected 1-16. Fortunately, if it doesn't convey, Charlotte just gets the 2028 first-round pick.

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