Don't hold your breath: A fair Hornets, Rockets trade for Collin Sexton is difficult to come by

On a Tuesday episode of his popular NBA podcast, Bill Simmons and his guest Zach Lowe floated a potential trade idea sending Collin Sexton to the Rockets. Houston, previously considered one of the favorites to usurp the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference's established hierarchy, suffered a major blow when they lost Fred VanVleet for the season to a torn ACL earlier this week.

If Houston decides to make a trade to bolster their point guard depth in the wake of VanVleet's injury, the Charlotte Hornets could be at the top of Rafael Stone's rolodex.

Charlotte has four NBA-caliber point guards. LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann, Collin Sexton, and Spencer Dinwiddie are all veteran ball handlers that will split minutes in Charles Lee's back court. In order to alleviate the log jam, a trade could be made between Charlotte and Houston that would be mutually beneficial for both sides.

However, it won't be happening any time soon, if at all.

Breaking down a potential Collin Sexton trade

Jazz guard Collin Sexton (2) drives against Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green — Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Let's hone in on the idea of Charlotte trading Sexton to Houston.

The veteran point guard is in the final year of a contract that is set to pay him $18.9M in 2025-26. This is where the difficulties in crafting a deal begin.

When looking at Houston's salary sheet, there isn't a natural match for Sexton's number. Houston would need to combine contracts to match Sexton's $18.9M salary in order to keep both teams salary cap compliant as a deal could trigger either side getting hard-capped at the first apron.

On the surface, a package containing Jabari Smith Jr. ($12.3M) and Clint Capela ($6.7M), would get it done. However, Smith Jr. signed his rookie-extension this summer, triggering the 'poison pill' clause in his contract, meaning '...he can no longer be traded for a player making equal money. Instead, his current salary is averaged along with the salaries he is to receive in his extension, and that average becomes his incoming salary for trade purposes. His outgoing value for the Rockets will be $12.3M while his incoming value for the receiving team will be $22.3M.' (per FanSpo).

So, where does that leave us? Charlotte does have a couple of players that could make up the difference between Sexton's $18.9M and Smith's $22.3M (Mason Plumlee and Spencer Dinwiddie, for two), but neither of players who recently-signed veteran minimum contracts (worth $2.2M) can be dealt until 12/15/2025. The same is true for Houston's summer signings, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jae'Sean Tate, Jeff Green, Josh Okogie, and Aaron Holiday.

What about Reed Sheppard? The second-year point guard is making $10.6M annually on his standard rookie contract, and rumors swirled around the 2024 NBA Draft that Charlotte was interested in selecting the former Kentucky Wildcat with the sixth overall pick if he was available.

In trading for Sheppard, Charlotte would need to attach assets to Sexton, and even if Houston is willing to move on from the intriguing prospect for more of a sure thing, Reed isn't the type of player Jeff Peterson is likely to 'cash in his chips' on. Not to mention the difficulties in matching Sheppard and Sexton's salaries and the roster math (that Charlotte is already struggling with) that Jeff Peterson would have to crunch.

Which leaves us at a stalemate.

Any deal involving just Charlotte and Houston is wholly unlikely. There is an endless world of multi-team trades that can be explored, but those require Einstein-level cap geniuses to circumvent, and although there is precedence of major moves happening this close to tip-off, it is a stretch to project Houston overhauling their roster for a minimal upgrade at point guard ahead of a pivotal season in Space City.

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