Kon Knueppel Should Win ROY Over Cooper Flagg Without Factoring in Team Record

Kon Knueppel is not the betting favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award anymore. The Charlotte Hornets guard is in a slump, while Cooper Flagg has caught fire over his last three games (40.3 ppg).

But there are still plenty of analysts, including award voters, who are sticking by Knueppel. That includes Steve Aschburner, who makes the Kia NBA Rookie Ladder that Knueppel still sits atop.

Reggie Miller came out before last night's game and said Knueppel is still his pick for Rookie of the Year because his games matter right now. What Flagg is doing in a lost season these days doesn't sway him.

Team success has been lobbied as a reason Knueppel should win the award. The Hornets are pretty good, and the Mavericks are not. The Hornets have the best net rating since January 1, and the Mavericks decidedly do not.

I won't complain about any reasoning for these voters to support Knueppel because it might get him the award he deserves but is poised to be somewhat robbed of. But it's not really a fair comparison, and it doesn't even need to be included.

Yes, it's true that the Hornets are better than the Mavericks. Switch the two players, and the Hornets may not be better with Flagg right now, but they're still probably good. The Mavericks would probably be worse.

Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) reacts after scoring against the Los Angeles Lakers | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

But that isn't relevant. It's about individual play, and the individual numbers still make it clear that Knueppel has been better. If we exclude traditional metrics, which are skewed because Flagg's usage rate and minutes total are higher, Knueppel has the edge almost across the board. And that's after factoring in his slump and Flagg's surge.

If we adjust to per-36 stats, the difference between Flagg's and Knueppel's stats is not substantial. Add in the fact that Flagg's usage rate is higher, and it's easy to ignore that part of the debate. Averaging more points, rebounds, and assists is cool, but it's a little misleading.

The advanced analytics, which do a better job of painting an accurate picture of each player, overwhelmingly favor Knueppel, and it's not just because he's a better shooter.

Knueppel is better than Flagg in the following:

Offensive rating (by 10.3 points)
Defensive rating (by 1.6 points)
Net rating (by 11.9 points)
True shooting (by 8.7%)
Value added (by 1.1 points)
Effective field goal percentage (by 10.4%)
Average plus minus (by 8.2)

Estimated wins added is a wash, which is another reason team records should be thrown out. They're both making their teams roughly the same amount of better.

Here's where Flagg has the edge:

Player Impact Estimate (by 1.2 points)
Rebound percentage (by 1.5%)
Assist percentage (by 5.4%)
Player Efficiency Rating (by 0.62)

There's also some context that makes Knueppel's edge even stronger. His true shooting is way better despite him taking more than double the threes Flagg is taking. It's easier to have a high true shooting percentage as a big man. Just ask Ryan Kalkbrenner, whose true shooting is an unfathomable 75.7%.

Charlotte Hornets guard/forward Kon Knueppel (7) moves the ball defended by Phoenix Suns guard Jalen Green | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Flagg is also the defensive stopper, while Knueppel was expected to be a mediocre defender. Yet, Knueppel is better on that end. There's some context as to who the players have to guard, but that's impossible to parse through statistically.

And is the NBA world going to give the award to Flagg because he's slightly better at assisting and rebounding and has better counting stats as a number one option versus a number three?

That shouldn't happen, and while the team record thing may help Knueppel, it shouldn't be necessary.

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