ESPN Predicts Utah Jazz to Edge Past Win Total

Heading into the 2025-26 NBA season, expectations are low for the young, rebuilding Utah Jazz.

In terms of betting lines, those expectations for the Jazz are especially low.

According to ESPN BET, the Jazz's win-total line for the season ahead has been set at a lowly 18.5— the lowest projected win-total in the NBA, and just 1.5 games higher than what Utah posted last season during their franchise-low total wins on the year.

But based on some stat-based projections from ESPN's Kevin Pelton, the Jazz could have the means to shoot over that mark of 18.5.

Pelton's stat-based model to project the win total of each team across the NBA placed the Jazz at a total of 20.2 wins, just a smidge higher than where their over-under is placed, but a step in a positive direction nonetheless.

"Teams with lines this low typically go over, including two of the bottom three teams from last season. In Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz have a pair of above-average starters to counteract the issues caused by their young backcourt," Pelton wrote.

It's easy to draw up reasons as to why the Jazz could struggle next season. The Western Conference is tough, the Jazz are inexperienced, Utah still might have overaching goals of tanking for next year's draft lottery, etc.

But there's also reason to believe that the Jazz won't totally topple over into an absymal team, and could at least put together a formiddable 20-plus wins on the year.

The young talent on the roster should be set to show strides in their development from a summer of work, they'll be well-conditioned with high energy on a nightly basis, Lauri Markkanen is still an All-Star-caliber forward when healthy that'll be back in the fold, and a Will Hardy-coached unit has proven before that they can defy those initial low expectations to become a respectable group.

Oct 10, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy signals to players during the first half against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

That looks like enough, on paper, going their way to post a handful of wins on the board, and maybe even enough to exceed their critically low expectations entering the new season.

It remains to be seen just how high their ceiling pans out to be, but the numbers show that 18.5 wins might just be selling the Jazz short.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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