Where Utah Jazz's Draft Lottery Odds Stand With 3 Games Left

The Utah Jazz's long season of losing is nearly at its end, as there are now just three games between now and the conclusion of their 2025-26 campaign.

With that conclusion to the Jazz's season will also come a bit more clarity with what to expect for the Jazz's first-round selection later this summer.

Draft lottery odds around the league are gradually becoming further and further cemented by the day, to the point where we now have at least some idea of how things could shape up for Utah come next month once the drawing arrives in Chicago.

With that in mind, let's take a deeper look at where the Jazz and their odds stand in the lottery with just three games left on tap:

Jazz Confirmed to Have Top-5 Odds

Oct 27, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy (left) and CEO of basketball operations Danny Ainge (right) speak before the game against the Phoenix Suns at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Jazz don't know exactly where their pick will end up falling from now until the end of the season, but they know they'll be slated to have odds in the top five selections, no matter what.

Following the Dallas Mavericks' win over the LA Lakers this weekend, it cements Utah to have at least the fifth-best odds on the board, even if they were to win every one of their remaining three games on the schedule.

In the event they did finish with the fifth-best odds in the lottery, they'll be slated to have a 10.5% chance to secure the top pick, and a 42.1% chance to land within the top four.

Getting as high up the board as possible is important as it is for the Jazz, but especially when factoring in their protected top-eight pick in the hands of the OKC Thunder. The fifth-best odds in the lottery mean that, if it holds, Utah would have a 99.4% chance to retain their own selection, and only a 0.6% chance it lands with OKC.

Even if that same pick falls to the eighth spot in the lottery, ensuring possession of that first-round pick is the priority, and the Jazz have done a strong job of making that a reality come May.

How the Jazz Can Keep Moving Up

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A draft prospect during the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Now, there's still a good chance that the Jazz can keep moving up the list of teams in the lottery from the fifth spot with just a week to go in the season.

A bottom-three finish is technically possible for Utah, depending on how the 19-win Brooklyn Nets close out. The more likely outcome, though, would be for a bottom-four finish, where they're currently tied with the Sacramento Kings at 21 wins.

A tie between both the Jazz and Kings' records would lead to a literal coin flip deciding who has the edge come lottery night. Yet, if Utah can lose out while Sacramento wins just one of their three remaining games, they'll secure the fourth-best odds at landing number one, coming out to 12.5%.

Better yet, the fourth-best odds would leave a 100% chance that the Jazz can hang onto their protected pick with the Thunder rather than having just a slim 0.6% chance they lose out; a small adjustment that can also bring a whole lot of added relief before lottery night comes.

It's safe to say that, with the last three games left on the Jazz's schedule, the primary focus will be to claim those top-four odds.

What Lies Ahead for the Jazz

Feb 28, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz forward Ace Bailey (19) tries to dribble past New Orleans Pelicans forward Herbert Jones (2) during the second half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images | Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images

In the three games left, losing out could be a task easier said than done for the Jazz, even while they're shorthanded.

They'll have a date with two other teams missing the playoffs: the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies, and a season finale against a Lakers team recently losing two of their three best players, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, due to injury.

As close as the Jazz can get to a 21-61 record will make for their best chances of retaining that coveted selection. Considering they're in the midst of a nine-game losing streak headed into their upcoming stretch, it could be in the cards.

As for the Kings, they've got two games left vs. the Golden State Warriors, and one against the Portland Trail Blazers; a tougher slate in terms of strength of schedule, though Sacramento has proven capable of a few surprise wins as of late, going 3-7 in their last 10.

It may not look like it on the surface, but expect the end of the Jazz's season to be an impactful three-game slate that could have some heavy implications on what their future could look like.