Can Paolo, Orlando Magic handle the burden of expectations?

The Orlando Magic have won consecutive Southeast Division titles, but getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs in back-to-back years makes the burden of expectations they face entering 2025-26 a bit strange.

This injury-tortured team finished 41-41 last season, right? Now they’re in win or else mode?

Based on buzz, if the Magic are not one of the top four teams in the East during the regular season and aren’t at least playing into May, calling the season they’re about to embark upon a failure would be a fair assessment.

Hype is hype. Rules are rules, and unwritten rules about hype, warranted or not, are clear. Orlando is either going to meet the moment since many league experts expect a breakthrough, or will fall short as a massive disappointment and make determinations about decision-makers, coaches and personnel from there.

Ironically, Magic president Jeff Weltman created this environment by doing his job well, proclaiming his team was transitioning to “win-now mode” when last season ended with a 4-1 loss to the Boston Celtics. He then backed up his words with one of the offseason’s biggest splashes, landing Desmond Bane from Memphis in a move that will seriously hamper draft capital through the rest of the decade. Bane’s impact will help define this era and what happens next.

The NBA’s annual GM survey listed Orlando as the team most likely to improve, picking up a resounding 47 percent of the vote. Bane was voted the offseason’s most underrated acquisition, even though being the most popular answer in that category is something of an oxymoron.

The betting markets list the Magic as a -160 favorite at DraftKings to win a third straight Southeast Division title. Only eight other teams have better odds to win the NBA championship. Orlando has the third-best odds (+235) to reach the Eastern Conference finals behind the Cleveland Cavaliers (-110) and New York Knicks (+115), and its win total was set at 51.5 in July, also third-highest in the East.

With the season a week away, that number has been bet down to 50.5, but still means the Magic have to win over 50 games for the first time since the 2010-11 season just to meet expectations. What’s interesting is that group ended up being one of the franchise’s biggest underachievers, serving as the beginning of the end of the Dwight Howard era in Central Florida.

Following a 15-4 start on the heels of consecutive conference finals appearances, the Magic fell apart, losing in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks before imploding completely the following year in the strike-shortened season. Jason Richardson came over in 2010-11 as Vince Carter exited the fold, which should tell you how long it’s been since title aspirations have been part of the equation in Orlando since son Jace, a rookie, was barely out of kindergarten when his pops was acquired.

How the Magic adapt to expectations over the course of the season will be massive, but what 2024-25 should have conditioned the fan base for is how crucial it will be to stay healthy. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner missed 58 games combined and played in just 40 together. Jalen Suggs being lost to knee surgery late blew any chance to realistically make a run, so Orlando’s ability to avoid major injuries entering the postseason is half the battle.

The other half will be learning how to respond to being the hunted for the first time. While the East is considered wide open this season, the league sees Orlando coming. A 15-7 start spurred on by a stingy defense and budding stars put the Magic on everyone’s radar, so this regular season will prepare this team for a long playoff run. The expectations, while weird for a team coming off a .500 season, should be embraced. In this instance, pressure is a privilege.

In-state rival Miami is up first on Oct. 22. The first three games are at home. The first 10 are all against Eastern Conference foes. Clearly, schedule-makers got in on the expectation building. A strong start is essential as the rise to meet the moment begins.

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