The Indiana Pacer Most Likely to Be Selected in an NBA Expansion Draft

The NBA is expected to expand to 32 teams, with the current timeline pointing toward the 2028–29 season.

With two new franchises entering the league, an expansion draft would take place, allowing those teams to select players from existing rosters. Teams are typically allowed to protect up to eight players, leaving the rest of their roster available to be selected.

The draft would likely occur during the offseason, with expansion teams selecting from the pool of unprotected players. Once a team has a player selected, it cannot lose another player for the remainder of the draft.

siakam — Feb 20, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) celebrates a made shot with guard Andrew Nembhard (2) in the first half against Memphis Grizzlies at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Pacers Roster Outlook

Looking ahead to the 2028–29 season, the Indiana Pacers currently project to have just five players under contract:

Tyrese Haliburton (final year of his designated rookie extension)
Aaron Nesmith (final year of his two-year, $40.4 million extension)
T.J. McConnell (team option worth $11.8 million)
Johnny Furphy (final year of his deal if his 2027–28 option is picked up)
Kam Jones (team option in final year of current deal)

At this stage, Indiana wouldn’t even have eight players to protect, only five. If the Pacers retain their 2026 pick and add first-round selections in 2027 and 2028, those players would likely round out the eight protected spots.

Of course, projecting a roster three years out is difficult, especially given how frequently NBA rosters change.

Two Scenarios to Consider

With expansion looming, it’s helpful to frame this through two realistic scenarios based on the 2026 draft.

Scenario 1: Pacers Keep Their Top-4 Pick

If Indiana retains its pick and remains in win-now mode, the likely protected group would be:

Tyrese Haliburton
Pascal Siakam
Andrew Nembhard
Aaron Nesmith
Ivica Zubac
Obi Toppin
T.J. McConnell
2026 Top-4 pick

Scenario 2: Pacers Lose Their Pick

If the pick conveys, Indiana would need to protect one additional player from this group:

Jarace Walker
Ben Sheppard
Johnny Furphy
Jay Huff
Quenton Jackson (partial guarantee)
Kam Jones (partial guarantee)
Micah Potter (partial guarantee)

Kobe Brown, as an unrestricted free agent, would not be eligible to be protected.

shep walker — Feb 20, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Ben Sheppard (26) celebrates with forward Jarace Walker (5) after being fouled against the Washington Wizards during the second quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images | Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Fan Poll Results

An X poll of Pacers fans showed strong support for Jarace Walker:

Jarace Walker — 65%
Johnny Furphy — 23%
Jay Huff — 8%
Ben Sheppard — 4%

Walker leading the vote is no surprise given his upside, but seeing Sheppard as the lowest vote getter was. He has been a key bench piece during the Pacers previous two deep playoff runs and completely under appreciated by a good amount of the fan base.

Most Likely Selection

I agree with the majority. Jarace Walker is the most likely player to be protected if Indiana loses its 2026 first-round pick. His upside and pedigree make him too valuable to expose.

However, that also makes him the most likely selection if he were left unprotected. A team like Seattle or Las Vegas would be eager to take a chance on a former top-10 pick with size (6-foot-8) and shooting ability (career 40% from three).

If Walker is protected, Johnny Furphy becomes the most likely selection. His age, contract, size and long-term upside would be difficult for an expansion team to pass on.

Jay Huff is another name to monitor, especially if the available center pool is thin. His ability to stretch the floor, protect the rim and contribute in the locker room makes him an appealing, low-cost option.

Final Thoughts

If an expansion draft were held today, Indiana would almost certainly lose a player capable of contributing to its rotation.

That said, projecting three years into the future is inherently uncertain. Roster turnover, development and team direction will all shape who is ultimately exposed, and who ends up being selected.