The Three Biggest Reasons Why Nuggets Are on the Verge of Getting Upset by Timberwolves

Denver is on the edge of playoff elimination. Here’s how they got there.

Nikola Jokić’s struggles are at the heart of the Nuggets’ playoff problems. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The first round of this year’s NBA postseason has blessed the NBA with another chapter in the Nuggets-Timberwolves rivalry. But it’s not going the way anybody thought it would.

Prior to Game 1, Denver was widely viewed as the favorite, which lines up—Nikola Jokić’s squad is the higher seed with 54 wins to Minnesota’s 49, features an MVP finalist and is made up of largely the same roster that came within one game of upsetting the Thunder last year. The T-wolves hit the postseason after a shaky stretch to end the season with injury questions surrounding Anthony Edwards and even more pressing questions about their identity as a team. There were a lot of reasons to believe in the Nuggets even in light of their shaky defense and recurring soft tissue injuries plauging the rotation even into the postseason.

But that’s why they play the games. With Game 5 looming on Monday night, Denver is on the verge of elimination in what would be, both in letter and spirit, a big upset loss to Minnesota. Game 4 was such a bad loss for the Nuggets that it’s hard to summon the confidence they can pull off a comeback, despite the Wolves losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards for the series due to injuries.

Much is at stake. How did the Nuggets get here? Let’s break down the three biggest reasons Denver is in a 3–1 hole with their backs against the wall in only the first round of the 2026 postseason.

Nikola Jokić has been completely shut down by Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert has historically struggled with Nikola Jokić, but the Timberwolves center has put up a strong fight and Minnesota leads the Nuggets 3–1 entering Monday’s Game 5. | Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

This is the No. 1 reason Denver is in this spot—Jokić has been totally shut down by Gobert, the multi-time Defensive Player of the Year and the anchor of the Timberwolves’ defense.

The stats don’t suggest as much. The Nuggets superstar is averaging 25.0 points, 14.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game. Those numbers are both gaudy and typical of how Jokić elevates his game in the playoffs. But not in this series.

The MVP candidate is shooting under 40% from the floor and an awful 18.5% from three, despite taking nearly seven attempts per game. And all credit must be given to Gobert. Jokić’s deep shooting might come around but Gobert has made his life miserable every second he spends inside the arc. He’s not allowing Jokić to get anything easy and his enormous frame means it’s hard for the Denver center to manipulate the defense with his passing the way we’re used to seeing. As a result, the Nuggets have been outscored by 23 points in Jokić’s minutes on the floor this series, while Minnesota is +7 in all of Gobert’s minutes.

If that doesn’t change, it’s hard not to see an upset in the works. Jokić is more than talented enough to outplay any opponent, but has yet to do so against Gobert this series. He’ll need to lead the way if the Nuggets are to have any hope, and it starts with figuring out how to get the best of the Timberwolves’ elite center.

Shooting woes up and down the roster

Jamal Murray, an elite three-point marksman during the regular season, is shooting just 26.5% from deep in the playoffs. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Timberwolves defense is very good, filled with big athletes and smart defenders backed by a coach in Chris Finch who knows exactly what the Nuggets want to do and how to best hinder them after two prior playoff meetings. But Denver is also suffering from some horrific shooting luck.

After four games, the Nuggets rank 14th among the 16 playoff teams with 9.8 three-point makes per game, just barely ahead of the ugly units in Detroit and Toronto. Moreover, they rank dead last in the NBA playoffs in three-point percentage at 28.5% despite taking the seventh-most attempts per game from beyond the arc. It’s been brick city in every game, and frankly, a bit shocking to see, considering Denver boasts at least two elite shooters and several more good ones in the rotation.

Everybody’s shooting percentages tend to drop in postseason play due to increased physicality, pressure and intensity. But the Nuggets are well beyond what we’d constitute as “normal” on that front. Jamal Murray was a deadeye from deep this year, hitting 43.5% (!!!) on 7.5 attempts per night. In the playoffs? He’s down to 26.5%. Jokić goes through peaks and valleys as a three-point shooter but still finished the regular season at 38%; his efficiency has been cut by more than half. Those aren’t outliers—that’s the case throughout the roster. Everybody has forgotten how to make three-point shots.

It can feel derivative to call the NBA a make-or-miss league—but in many ways it’s the truth. No winning can be had in today’s basketball world without quality shot-making. The Nuggets, because of Minnesota’s tight defense and a cold spell enveloping the entire roster, are completely lacking that right now.

The supporting cast has been invisible

Nuggets wing Cameron Johnson, the team’s biggest offseason addition, has not lived up to the billing this year. | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

More broadly, there just hasn’t been a lot of production beyond Jokić and Murray.

Christian Braun was given a $125 million extension last offseason to be a key cog in the Nuggets’ starting lineup. He is averaging 9.5 points per game and, somehow, is only taking two three-pointers a night. Cameron Johnson, acquired this offseason under the assumption he’d be a more reliable shooter than the departing Michael Porter Jr., is averaging all of 10 points per game and shooting 22.2% from three. Aaron Gordon is hurt again to the point he might end up being a total non-factor for the rest of the series. Regardless, the forward was struggling to offer his usual level of secondary scoring even before that. And those are the starters!

Tim Hardaway Jr. was a finalist for Sixth Man of the Year but is shooting 40% from the floor, an awful number for a player logging 26.8 minutes per game. Bruce Brown may as well not even be out there with how poorly he’s playing, but is getting 20 minutes per game anyway. Above all, nobody is playing good defense.

Even just one of those guys playing at the expected level could have swung the outcome of Denver’s three losses. Instead they are collectively struggling, putting up worse numbers than they did in the regular season. That can’t happen under normal circumstances but it definitely cannot happen when the Nuggets’ two stars are not playing at their usual level of efficiency; beyond Jokić’s struggles detailed above, Murray is having a tough shooting series of his own, despite leading the team with 26.5 points per game.

It has been a bad series for basically everybody in the Denver rotation. As a result, there is a kernel of hope to be found in the idea that everyone is playing so far below the level we saw in the regular season that a regression toward the mean is coming.

But this 3–1 deficit is on everyone’s shoulders. Much better play is needed all around if Denver wants to avoid a gentlemen’s sweep in what would be an embarrassing end to an otherwise solid season.

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