Lottery Look: Wins Continue for Raptors With Another Crucial Stretch Looming

The Toronto Raptors can't stop winning as their lottery odds dwindle with the easiest remaining schedule still looming

Mar 14, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Toronto Raptors guard A.J. Lawson (0) gets past Utah Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson (00) and to the basket during the second half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images | Chris Nicoll-Imagn Images

The first clear sign of what was about to unfold came on March 7.

The Toronto Raptors listed Jakob Poeltl as out for “rest” against the Utah Jazz. It was the first time this season that Toronto opted to sit a healthy player in an effort to improve the organization’s lottery odds.

Since then, the Raptors have pulled out every trick in the tanking playbook. They’ve alternated resting Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley, routinely pulled key players down the stretch, and leaned heavily on the likes of Orlando Robinson, AJ Lawson, Jamal Shead, and Jared Rhoden in crunch time. The message has been clear.

But the results? Not so much.

Despite their best efforts, Toronto has gone 4-1 since its tanking push began in earnest, winning six of its last seven overall. What was once the fifth-worst record in the league has jumped to seventh, leapfrogging Brooklyn and Philadelphia in the process.

The cost? A three-percentage-point drop in their Cooper Flagg odds and a 10.2-percentage-point dip in their chances of landing a top-four pick. The Raptors’ most likely draft position now sits somewhere between No. 7 and No. 10.

And the wins might not stop there.

Toronto still has the league’s easiest remaining schedule. After three road games against Portland, Phoenix, and Golden State, the Raptors close the season with a 12-game stretch in which they’ll likely be favored in 10 of them. Given how the last week has gone, it’s entirely possible they stumble into another seven to 10 wins—even as they try to lose.

The key games now will be Toronto’s two two-game sets against the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs, both sitting just four games back in the reverse standings. The Spurs, missing both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox, appear to be fully embracing the tank. Portland, losers of five straight, seems to be heading in the same direction.

If Toronto slips behind both teams, its lottery odds would take another hit. As the No. 9 seed in the draft lottery, the Raptors would have just a 4.5% shot at landing Flagg and a 20.3% chance at a top-four pick. More likely, they’d be staring at the No. 9 or No. 10 selection, a far cry from where they stood just a few weeks ago.