Two X-Factors for Houston Rockets' Guards Next Season

The highly anticipated 2025-2026 roster comes with big swing factors.

Mar 31, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) dribbles the ball during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets built off a breakout 52-30 season by adding Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela and more, all while retaining their most important players in Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.

Given the stability of the returning core and the added veterans, there are things about the Rockets identity that are near surefire bets to happen –– Durant averaging an efficient 20 points per game, Thompson remaining an elite defender and the Rockets dominating on the glass, just to name a few.

At the same time, the newly formed squad has some big swing factors that could change the trajectory of the season from a playoff appearance, to potentially hoisting the Larry O' Brien to cap it off.

Let's take a look at what those biggest X-factors are for the Houston Rockets' 2025-2026 season.

1. Reed Sheppard's offensive growth

Originally taken with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Sheppard was touted as an NBA-ready prospect who could be an efficient guard right away. After averaging 12.5 points per game on 53.6 / 52.1 / 83.1 shooting splits at Kentucky, his efficiency dropped to 4.4 points per game on 35.1 / 33.8 / 81.3 splits in his rookie NBA season.

Nov 23, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard (15) reacts to making a three point basket against the Portland Trail Blazers in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Despite his disappointing rookie campaign, it's clear the Rockets hold high hopes for his second season, as he's been giving a clear path to be the team's lead backup guard. Aside from veteran combo guard Aaron Holiday, Sheppard is the only true ball-handler in the second unit. If he climbs closer to his previous potential, the Rockets' bench unit could flourish. If year two is a repeat of 2024-2025, Houston may be in the market for a new guard come the trade deadline.

2. Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson's 3-point shooting

While these two are at entirely different levels of shooting at this stage in their careers, both have potential to alter the Rockets' offense with a leap from last season. VanVleet shot 34.5 percent from 3-point range in 2024-2025, but has eclipsed 37 percent five times in his career. If the veteran can creep back to that mark, his spacing could be crucial alongside Durant and Sengun.

Nov 4, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Fred VanVleet (5) and forward Amen Thompson (1) react after a play during the fourth quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

As for Thompson, his 3-point shooting is near zero at this point, shooting 27.5 percent on 1.3 attempts per game. He's been an effective offensive player despite this, using his alien-like athleticism to get creative in the paint and run in transition. Team's will likely ignore Thompson beyond the arc in favor of doubling Sengun and Durant, so if Thompson develops a capable catch-and-shoot jumper, it could add an entire new fold to Houston's offense.