The Nine NBA Teams That Can Actually Win This Year’s Championship

The NBA is in the midst of an era of true parity. In the last eight years, eight different teams have won championships. The introduction of the second apron and the general increase in overall talent level has evened the playing field of NBA contention. Dynasties are a thing of the past; instead most fans can enter every season believing their team can make a run at a title if things break right.

The title landscape has never been broader, in fewer words. There are still dominant squads who can boast the strongest chance of raising the Larry O’Brien trophy, with talent on paper superior to nearly every opponent, all else equal. But as the Pacers, Mavericks and Heat taught us in recent seasons, the right combination of top talent and fortunate circumstance can result in a shocking Finals run—and when it all comes down to a single seven-game series, anything can happen. The NBA’s parity era means one lucky bounce can change history.

Thus, with the dawn of the 2026–27 season approaching, I borrowed from Sports Illustrated’s own Conor Orr to identify the nine teams I believe have a chance to win this year’s championship. You are undoubtedly thinking nine teams is a lot. It is! But the barrier for entry to the championship conversation has never been lower. You don’t need more superstars than the other side to make a run. There are more ways to build a title team than ever.

Now, if I had to put my salary on it, I would have a hard time betting against the true favorites (the Spurs, Thunder and Knicks). That’s not the point of this endeavor, though. I aim to capture the full breadth of the championship race this season. In the NBA’s parity era, that race includes nearly a third of the league.

Now, to set the scene before we get into it...

The basic checklist is the same as above: Does the team have a superstar capable of being the best player on a title team? Is the roster well-constructed and talented throughout the rotation? Is it helmed by a good coach?
At a more granular level, I tried to identify the teams who can trot out a strong offense and defense. Historically, NBA champions play both sides at a top-10 level at worst. The favorites trot out a top-five offense and defense. Really good offense can overcome middling defense, and vice versa, but no title team is anything resembling bad at one end of the floor. No matter the personnel.
There were three teams who just missed the cut: the Pistons, Timberwolves, and Heat. Detroit’s lack of secondary scoring behind Cade Cunningham was a fatal flaw last postseason and wasn’t addressed meaningfully this offseason. Minnesota is going to need more time before it can build a championship-caliber defense with LaMelo Ball at the 1. And Miami’s roster around the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Bam Adebayo pairing is pretty rough; Erik Spoelstra will get the most out of the group but right now it’s not up to snuff for a true contender.

Let’s finally get to the list. Below you’ll find the nine teams capable of winning this year’s NBA title, listed in alphabetical order.

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum will take the court without Jaylen Brown this season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Yes, even after trading Jaylen Brown, the Celtics can win this year’s NBA championship. The stunning blockbuster was a downgrade in net talent, to be sure. But this rotation still boasts: an All-NBA player in Jayson Tatum, two star role players in Paul George and Derrick White, and a roster chock-full of good-to-great defenders, good-to-great shooters and elite rebounders. After averaging 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in his return from an Achilles tear last season, Tatum has earned the benefit of the doubt as far whether he’ll look like the superstar he was pre-injury. The whole program is overseen by Joe Mazzulla and his championship experience. Boston boasts a well-constructed squad in an NBA where depth and cohesive talent rule supreme.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland’s recent, spectacular playoff failures cast a long shadow over what has become a very well-rounded roster after Peyton Watson came to town via trade over the offseason. The Cavaliers now check the boxes every contender must: a path to an elite defense and reliable scorers who can score at will in the halfcourt. If it still feels hard to buy in, I don’t blame you. James Harden’s playoff résumé stinks out loud and Donovan Mitchell’s hasn’t been much better since arriving. But the failsafes this roster offers (and the potential of Evan Mobley finally taking that offensive leap we’ve been talking about) makes this the Cavs' best chance at a title since LeBron was in town.

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Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokić is perhaps the greatest floor-raiser we’ve ever seen grace an NBA floor. He makes all of his teammates so much better it’s almost unbelievable. For that reason it’s hard to quit the Nuggets as a true contender even after consecutive offseasons of talent drain following their 2023 championship. Denver’s starting five is still quite dangerous when fully healthy and the Jokić-Jamal Murray two-man game is an automatic bucket come playoff time. We’ll see if this year’s iteration of bench mob musical chairs pays dividends (perhaps DeMar DeRozan’s pure midrange shot will finally keep the offense afloat when the stars sit) but Jokić is a singular force who can brute force his way to wins on good and bad nights both. Those players can never be counted out of the championship conversation.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Luka Lakers have finally arrived. Los Angeles spent this offseason crafting a rotation ideally suited to accentuate Dončić’s strengths and (more relevant to the title conversation) compensate for his weaknesses. Walker Kessler and Quentin Grimes give the defense a higher baseline of play and are perfect role players to take advantage of the stress Dončić puts on opponents offensively. JJ Redick showed off some quality playoff coaching skills when his unit blitzed the Rockets for a six-game first-round series win despite missing star talent. Above all, Dončić is an elite problem-solver who can torture opposing teams in the crunch of postseason play with the right team around him. The Lakers are now that team, or close enough to it that Dončić’s greatness can power a deep run if he gets hot.

New York Knicks

The Knicks did lose key bench piece Mitchell Robinson to free agency this summer but otherwise return every major and minor contributor to their first championship in a half-century. The elite starting five of Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby, Hart and Towns figure to once again overwhelm teams with their verstatile offensive and defensive excellence. Miles McBride and Landry Shamet will offer shooting aplenty off the bench. Mike Brown’s steady hand will be ever-present on the sideline. New York might take the foot off the gas during the regular season after last year’s deep playoff run but at its best this roster can go toe-to-toe with anybody in the NBA.

NEXT: Regrading the Knicks’ Blockbuster Trade for Karl-Anthony Towns, Two Years Later

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder combine an elite, turnover-heavy defense with the best isolation scorer in the game to win games en masse. And boy, does it work! Oklahoma City racked up 64 wins and came within one game of a second consecutive Finals appearance through the singular talents of two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with a roster deeply committed to the team’s defensive identity—largely without All-NBA wing Jalen Williams (33 games played in 2025–26). The second apron forced GM Sam Presti to send out some talent for nothing but draft picks in return. This is still a monster of a roster with elite talent littering the rotation. The Thunder will be a wins machine again and their style has already proven enough to win a title.

Philadelphia 76ers

There is no question the 76ers have the starpower to win it all. Philadelphia’s overhauled rotation still features top-tier scorer Tyrese Maxey and the undeniable (if unreliable) Joel Embiid, as well as up-and-coming rookie VJ Edgecombe. But those three are now joined by first-team All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown and the LeBron James. If all goes well, the quintet will dominate through overwhelming skill and versatility. Could the defense prove an issue? Sure. Will LeBron’s quote about not leaving his family to bow out in the second round come back to haunt them? Perhaps! But talent still reigns supreme in the NBA and if the Sixers can figure out how to play together, their collection of talent will outweigh all others.

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San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are the most popular pick to be the last team standing in June (and if not, at least among Sports Illustrated’s NBA experts). It’s not hard to see why. Victor Wembanyama is on the rise as a generational talent and one of the five best players in the NBA—and with plenty of room to improve still. The supporting cast around him is chock-full of talent and skill, from the young backcourt of Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle to veterans like De’Aaron Fox and Tobias Harris. After a grueling playoff run that ended in heartbreak, the most common criticism of this team last year (lack of experience) no longer holds true. There’s no doubting San Antonio has the star talent and structure to win a championship; the only question is if they’re up to the task of getting the job done after five blown leads in five Finals games last June.

Toronto Raptors

Will Kawhi Leonard’s arrival propel the Raptors to championship heights? | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

How completely do you believe that defense wins championships? If it’s the mantra upon which you build your sports philosophy, then these Raptors are for you. Toronto has spent years collecting an impressive array of hard-nosed, highly athletic defenders who consider it a personal affront if any points are scored. They made for one of the NBA’s fiercest defenses last season—and this year, Kawhi Leonard will join the chorus. He’ll be another elite wing defender to trot out alongside Scottie Barnes, and his ability to score will be unlike anything the Raptors have seen since... well, the last time Leonard was in town. And that worked out great. This Toronto team isn’t quite as versatile on paper as the ‘19 championship squad but the defense has the ability to be so good it doesn’t matter.

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