Five X-Factors For Thunder-Timberwolves Western Conference Finals

The Western Conference Finals is primed to be the best series of the NBA Playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder are back on this stage for the first time since 2016 while the Minnesota Timberwolves are making its second straight trip to the Conference Finals.

This best-of-7 set will be littered with chess matches and adjustments, but also plenty of X-Factors. Here are five X-Factors to watch as the Western Conference Finals unfold.

Western Conference Finals X-Factors

1. Shooting Variants

Both teams will need shooting luck in this series for different reasons. The Oklahoma City Thunder will give up open corner triples, as they have the past two seasons, swarming the ball and the paint touches that Randle receives before relying on hard closeouts flying to the corners. If Minnesota makes them pay in that department, it would lift the Timberwolves' offense in a big way.

The Minnesota Timberwolves hardly played zone this season in general, but gave the OKC Thunder a heavy dose of it for good reason. It is the best defense to play against the Bricktown ballers in hopes of slowing superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but it does leave his supporting cast members open from beyond the arc. If Gilgeous-Alexander's co-stars make their triples, it changes how Minnesota must defend Oklahoma City.

This is a two-fold issue for OKC. In lineups with Chet Holmgren as the lone center on the floor, Rudy Gobert will likely cross-match onto Lu Dort, to hang around the rim and allow the streaky shooter to be alone beyond the arc. This lets the Timberwolves not only return to their preferred man shell but gamble on Dort's shot variants while removing Gobert from Holmgren, which is a matchup nightmare in space on the perimeter.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (31.9%) sit as the worst 3-point shooting squad remaining in the field, and only rank ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies and Orlando Magic this postseason. However, Minnesota (35.0%) is the second-worst distance shooting team left in the postseason. Something has to give.

2. Jalen Williams

The Oklahoma City Thunder are asking a lot of the third-year swingman. To be the No. 2 option on a title team is hard at any age, much less in your second-ever playoff run. The results for Williams have been up-and-down this postseason, but the processing and decision-making have never wavered.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a whole new ball game for Williams and company, though. Anchored by Gobert at the rim, it will be pivotal that the Thunder attack the rim with force and go up strong, a trait that has been inconsistent at best this postseason for Williams. The Santa Clara product is also a better 3-point shooter than he has shown this postseason and if that turns on a dime this series, he will be receiving plenty of flowers in the winner's circle by series end. It is all out in front of Williams to shape the perception of his postseason in this series. Which, admittedly, is a ton of pressure in this stage of his career.

3. Timberwolves Ball Handlers

The name of the game is turnovers against the Oklahoma City Thunder. That has been the case all season. Not only does it help the Thunder make up for rebounding shortcomings, which could be exploited heavily this series, but allows the Thunder to avoid half-court offense, which has labored throughout this series.

While the Timberwolves' zone defense and overall elite group on that end of the floor can give Oklahoma City fits, if they are unable to settle in defensively due to always playing in transition, it could go south in a hurry for Minnesota.

While the Thunder have defenders prone to creating turnovers, the Timberwolves are primed for giveaways, averaging 14.8 turnovers this postseason, the most among the active playoff teams, which was compiled against worse defenses.

4. Naz Reid

Reid is a stellar and versatile threat. He allows the Timberwolves to have as many options as the Thunder. Both teams can go solo big, double-big and small ball throughout a game in large part due to Reid.

He will have chances to bury corner triples that make Thunder observers rip their hair out while also providing the physicality needed to disrupt Oklahoma City drivers throughout the series on the defensive end.

His size is a matchup nightmare for the Thunder, who will have to defend him with smaller wings and forwards for most of his minutes. It has led to big games this season against Oklahoma City as Reid averages 22.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and nine stocks (steals + blocks) across four games against the Thunder this season. That 22.5 points per game average is by far his best output against any team this season.

5. Jaylen Clark

This is a hot-take, but in the Western Conference Finals, every option must be on the table. Clark has provided next to nothing offensively all season and has only tallied six postseason minutes due to those limitations.

However, Clark was one of the best defenders of Gilgeous-Alexander all season. If both offenses bog down as expected, what would be the harm of leaning all-in on the defensive side of the floor?

Sure, the Timberwolves have great options in Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and even Naz Reid to toss at the soon-to-be-named MVP. But with Clark's prowess and the potential foul trouble both teams could run into, do not be shocked if Clark gets a chance this series.

This will be a highly competitive series between these two teams with a berth to the NBA Finals on the line. Expect a long, tightly contested best-of-7 set.