Now Chet Holmgren Is Injured, Too. Can the Thunder Survive His Absence?

The Thunder’s first two weeks of the new season just went from bad to worse. After Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace went down with injuries that will keep them out for most, if not all of the season, Oklahoma City will now have to deal without Chet Holmgren for considerable time.

Holmgren experienced mild discomfort in his right knee on Sunday which eventually revealed a small patellar tear. He had a biological treatment for the injury on Friday, and he’ll be out for eight to 10 weeks.

In the midst of disastrous injury woes, the Thunder are now down three starters just five games into their season—a season in which OKC aims to return to the NBA Finals and win its second title in three years. Anything is possible with back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, but Holmgren’s prolonged absence came at the worst possible time with the team’s depth already thin.

Williams missed most of last season and couldn’t stay healthy in the playoffs. Even as the Thunder were down their second option, Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and the supporting cast took them within one win of a second straight Finals appearance.

This injury, however, feels different. Especially when you consider the crushing injuries OKC is already dealing with. So, what does it all mean for the Thunder this season?

How Chet Holmgren’s injury impacts the Thunder’s title chase

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has even more responsibility with Chet Holmgren out | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over the last few seasons, this team has won games no matter what was thrown its way. Last year, it was Williams playing in just 33 regular-season games before he got banged up in the playoffs and couldn’t finish out the Western Conference finals against the Spurs. Other than Gilgeous-Alexander’s continued MVP level, what helped the Thunder win 64 games and earn the top seed in the West was Holmgren’s All-Star breakout.

With Williams out, Holmgren stepped up. He averaged 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game and earned third team All-NBA honors alongside his maiden All-Star appearance. If Victor Wembanyama wasn’t around, Holmgren would’ve been the Defensive Player of the Year.

He got punked by Wemby in the playoffs, but this year it felt like Holmgren and the Thunder were out for a vengeance.

“It definitely took me a couple weeks to sit there and reflect and think all that s--- was for nothing,” Holmgren told Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix of his process getting over the loss to San Antonio. “When you lose, it feels like it was all for nothing because at the end of the day, you don't put all that f---ing work in just to lose. You know what I mean? You put all that work in to try and reach the top. And when you don't get there, you can feel like it's a complete failure.”

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The Thunder had something to say about Wemby and San Antonio’s continued rise. They came out and beat the Spurs on opening night in a game where Holmgren was a defensive monster alongside Gilgeous-Alexander’s 32-point performance.

Holmgren has been inactive since Sunday and played just three games before the prolonged absence. If all heals well, he can return around Christmas—best case scenario.

With Wallace and Williams already out for the majority of the season at least, that’s a long time to go without three starters. Especially two of your three top-scoring options in Williams and Holmgren. Holmgren didn’t go nuts scoring-wise over his three games, but he’s enough of a threat to alleviate at least some of the immense defensive pressure Gilgeous-Alexander faces.

Even more significant of a loss is Holmgren’s defense. The Thunder were the NBA’s best defensive team last season and he was their best defender. Yes, Wallace, Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso played a part, but OKC wouldn’t have been that good without Holmgren. Oh, and Dort was traded to Atlanta over the offseason due to financial constraints. To make matters even worse, Caruso is currently sidelined with a sprained ankle.

Holmgren’s timetable keeps him out for OKC’s next 23 games at least. Seeing as it’s still early in the season, he won’t return until he’s 100% ready to go. A 10-week absence would keep him out for about 30 games. That would bring him back before the midway point of the season and, at 4–1, the Thunder won’t fall off a cliff. Gilgeous-Alexander is too good and other players will step up.

However, this is Holmgren’s third major injury and it’s only the start of his fifth season in the league. Williams went down in a freak accident, but he will now be out for the majority of two straight seasons. OKC has shown an ability to stay at the top of the league without one of its top three players, but two may be too much to overcome. The issue isn’t finishing the regular season, it’s staying healthy in the playoffs. And the Thunder seem plagued by the worst injury bug imaginable.

Who needs to step up for Thunder with Chet Holmgren out?

Although Holmgren is one of the NBA’s top rim protectors, OKC still has Isaiah Hartenstein down low. There isn’t a void to fill at center as Holmgren primarily plays the four. A combination of Kenrich Williams and Jaylin Williams will most likely start in his place. Both are solid players who can hold their own defensively, but neither are at the level Holmgren is. That’s no slight to them, you’re just talking about an All-NBA and All-Star guy who’s irreplaceable. Rookie center Aday Mara may get even more run to help defensively with his size off the bench. Dort would help out a whole lot if he was still around, though.

Scoring wise, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain have a ton of added responsibility with the team’s slew of injuries. Mitchell broke out over the playoffs last year before he went down with an injury himself. Early on, his scoring has carried over. He led the Thunder in scoring in each of their last two games with performances even better than Gilgeous-Alexander.

You can never count the Thunder out. They’ve been the class of the NBA for years. After key departures over the offseason and an insane run of poor injury luck, though, their standing as a top title threat is hanging on by a thread.

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