3 X Factors for OKC Thunder vs. Lakers in Round 2

The Oklahoma City Thunder are attempting to get back to business in Game 1 of this second-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers. The OKC Thunder have not trailed by more than nine points yet this postseason, while never giving up the lead in second halves to this point after their first-round sweep of the Phoenix Suns. The Los Angeles Lakers come into this series as the underdog after getting past the Houston Rockets in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs in six games.

Both sides are without stars. The Oklahoma City Thunder are still missing All-NBA swingman Jalen Williams, who suffered a grade 1 left hamstring strain in the second half of Game 2 against the Suns, is still considered week-to-week. The Purple and Gold are without superstar Luka Doncic, who is also nursing a left hamstring strain. This changes the dynamic of the series in a massive way and it is unclear when Williams and/or Doncic will debut in this best-of-seven set, or if they will.

Still, there are plenty of X Factors to go around in this series that many predict to go in Oklahoma City's favor in short order. Who will the Thunder need to see step up with the lack of Williams and to ensure these favorable predictions come true?

OKC Thunder, Chet Holmgren, Lu Dort, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA Playoff — Apr 8, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) and Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) celebrate after scoring against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

3 X Factors for OKC Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers

1) Isaiah Joe Punishing Lakers Zone

The Oklahoma City Thunder have seen Joe turn in a career year from beyond the arc. Not only did he shoot the 3 ball at a career-best 42% clip, but he also did so on 6.0 attempts, most of which were off movement and created offense for the team to punish defenses as an off-ball player, breaking down zone concepts and sloppy rotations.

In the opening round of the NBA Playoffs Joe did see his percentage drop to 35% from beyond the arc but he launched 6.7 a night. A volume of triples that the Arkansas product has never been able to produce before in his NBA career, amid a playoff setting. His fearlessness in transition, rising up over hard closeouts and carrying his momentum off a dribble hand off into a triple were encouraging signs in his development.

These are all traits the Oklahoma City Thunder will need against the Los Angeles Lakers as many expect the Purple and Gold to throw everything –– including the kitchen sink –– at Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get the ball out of his hands. If the pumpkin finds Joe and he knocks down shots from downtown, that plan will be effectively foiled by the Bricktown Ballers.

2) Lu Dort Scaling Up Defensively

Dort had a fantastic opening round of the NBA Playoffs despite never producing a gaudy box score. Sure, it didn't have a jaw-dropping scoring night in the four games against Phoenix, but he never attempted a bad look against the Suns. His shot diet was perfect and Dort made quick decisions with the ball in his hands to keep the defense moving and avoid costly turnovers or wasted possessions. That is the defensive ace doing his job on the offensive end of the floor. Now, if those high-quality shots start to fall against Los Angeles, it will be a short series for the Purple and Gold.

Another way Dort will be an X Factor is on the defensive end of the floor. Of course, he is one of the league's best stoppers but without Jalen Williams Dort will be tasked with scaling up physically to defend LeBron James. How he handles that challenge will go a long way in determining if the Purple and Gold can find any offense whatsoever.

Los Angeles will likely try to camp James in the post to operate as their hub, either as a playmaker if the Thunder are forced to send extra bodies to him or as a scorer if he has a smaller matchup on the low block. Dort is certainly capable of still making life tough on James and frustrating the league's all-time leading scorer, but it will be no small feat to pull off.

3) Chet Holmgren's play finishing

While Holmgren himself isn't an X Factor, everyone knows what his game is about and how elite he will be on the defensive end of the floor; the lack of Williams makes him one. The Thunder have seen Holmgren progress as a play finisher, cutting backdoor, rolling to the rim out of the pick and roll, and hanging around the dunker spot for dump-off passes. These traits, on top of his catch-and-shoot ability from beyond the arc and in the mid-range, have made for an offensive leap this season.

Down Williams, the Oklahoma City Thunder are missing their second best on ball shot creator to draw deenses attention and leverage that into easy playmaking chances for Holmgren. The good news is, the Thunder are accustomed to life without the Santa Clara product by now, but it still will be more of a challenge without his fellow All-Star on the floor.

OKC had to make an adjustment from Game 3 –– their first playoff game without Williams –– to Game 4 in finding Holmgren with scoring chances.

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