Assessing Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Timberwolves This Season

One year ago, the range of outcomes for the Minnesota Timberwolves was relatively narrow after bringing back almost their entire roster from the season before, with hopes of building on their 49 wins from the regular season.

The Wolves' ceiling wasn't very high as they did nothing to improve on a team that was outclassed by the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, but the floor was steady as Minnesota had a foundation of playoff success that seemed replicable.

The Timberwolves ended up having what felt like a 50th-percentile season. They won 49 games in the regular season again, but did it with Anthony Edwards missing more than 20 games. They won a playoff round for the third straight season, but again were routed out of the Playoffs by the eventual Western Conference champion San Antonio Spurs.

This time around, after shaking up the roster in multiple places, the spread of potential outcomes this upcoming season is much wider. If everything clicks into place, the Wolves have the talent to accomplish just about anything. If it doesn't, they could fall further behind the Thunder, Spurs and the rest of the NBA.

Best case: The sky is the limit

If everything goes right for the Wolves this season, the Wolves have enough talent on their roster to join the Thunder and the Spurs in the top tier of Western Conference teams.

To reach that ceiling, the Timberwolves would need a litany of different aspects of their team to fall into place. Most notably, LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, as the newest members of the team, will need to fit neatly into their roles.

For Ball, that means being the primary ballhandler and secondary scorer next to Anthony Edwards. Ball can provide a level of floor spacing similar to Donte DiVincenzo while putting a second creator on the floor with Edwards, who has been one of the most double-teamed players in the NBA.

For Kuminga, he will need to fit in offensively as an off-ball weapon on one end while playing quality defense with a focus on rebounding on the other end. Kuminga has said all of the right things to start his potentially brief Wolves tenure, and those words will need to become actions if the Wolves are to maximize this roster.

Overall, every member of the starting lineup would need to improve in one way or another. Edwards would likely need to ascend to MVP-candidate status, and Jaden McDaniels would need to reach the level of offensive production more consistently, as he showed in last year's Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets.

The Wolves' largest potential upside comes from 19-year-old Joan Beringer, who is set to take over the backup center spot. Minnesota's front office and coaching staff speak incredibly highly of Beringer at every opportunity, which speaks to their level of confidence in the young Frenchman.

If the Wolves do reach their ceiling, it will likely come with a breakout season from Beringer, who could develop into one of the best defensive big men in the NBA without as many of the offensive deficiencies of Rudy Gobert.

From a regular-season standpoint, 55-60 wins would represent a 90th-100th percentile season. The upside to winning 55 or more games would be to either get the number one seed or push either the Thunder or the Spurs, requiring the Wolves to beat only one of those juggernauts.

Looking at the Playoffs, by no means does the Wolves reaching their season guarantee them a championship, but it would give them a fighting chance to upset one or both of the Thunder and Spurs, something that was far from possible with the previous version of the team.

Worst case: More regular season disappointment

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the worst possible season would probably look very similar to the previous two. The Timberwolves would float through the regular season, waiting for the Playoffs, and instead of upsetting a higher-seeded team, would get eliminated in the first round for the first time since 2023.

In this scenario, Ball would be unable to maximize Edwards in the backcourt, the Kuminga signing would go full belly-up, and the Timberwolves' bench depth, specifically Beringer, would struggle to provide valuable depth.

The Wolves' floor is still relatively high. Setting injuries aside, the Wolves should still be able to win a lower 40s number of games, which is possibly good enough to again earn the sixth seed, depending on the performance of teams like the Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Utah Jazz.

As for the Playoffs, the Wolves would be dead on arrival against either the Thunder or the Spurs, who at that point would feel like an unbeatable duo atop the Western Conference.

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