One Timberwolves Roster Spot That Could End Up Changing

One of the most under-the-radar signings of the offseason for the Minnesota Timberwolves was bringing in 10-year NBA veteran Trey Lyles, who spent the past season playing away from the NBA in Spain for Real Madrid.

When the Wolves originally signed Lyles, they had a gaping hole at the power forward position. Julius Randle and Naz Reid had been traded away, and it appeared Lyles was in line for a solid place in the Timberwolves' rotation, likely off the bench.

Now, with Jonathan Kuminga joining the roster as Minnesota's starting four, Lyles's spot in the pecking order becomes a lot less straightforward, going from someone with an every-night role to a player who is likely out of the rotation with everyone healthy.

There will still be nights where Lyles sees plenty of action, as the Timberwolves are still thin at the power forward position and frontcourt more broadly, but the margin of error for him on this roster is going to be fairly slim.

To stick in the rotation, Lyles will need to rebound and defend his position well while knocking down open three-pointers as the lone stretch big on the roster. That last part is probably where Lyles's season will be made or broken.

Lyles is a career 34.7% three-point shooter with multiple seasons above 38% and a couple below 32%. That is a fairly wide variance in outcomes for his shooting numbers, as the Wolves will require a higher-end shooting season from Lyles.

If Lyles is unable to meet the Wolves' standards for his play, or for whatever other reason he isn't a fit with the team or organization, Lyles's contract, the state of the Wolves' roster, and their salary cap sheet may usher in a quick end to Lyles's tenure in Minnesota.

As of now, the Timberwolves have 14 players on their roster. They can either decide to go into the season with those 14 players or sign a 15th player to reach the maximum number of players allowed on the team.

In either scenario, the Wolves may want to open up another roster spot before the trade deadline to either create flexibility to make a trade or space to sign a player who is bought out by their current team, like they did last season with Kyle Anderson and Mike Conley.

If the Wolves do need to create an extra roster spot, Lyles and his contract may end up as the logical choice. Lyles's contract is at the league minimum, with a cap hit of just below $2.5 million, but only $1.5 million of that is fully guaranteed.

If the Timberwolves were to decide to waive Lyles any time before January 10, 2027, the Wolves would save about $1 million while opening up a roster spot. In that scenario, the added roster spot should be seen as the more valuable commodity, but the lowered payroll would come with an added benefit other than saving ownership some cash.

The Wolves are currently about $4.5 million below the NBA's second apron, a salary threshold they are not allowed to surpass due to earlier offseason moves. Increasing that amount to $5.5 million could help push a trade across the finish line that was being held up due to the Wolves' lack of space below the second apron.

If Lyles can provide value off the bench in a limited role and be a locker room leader on nights when he doesn't play, he will stick on the Timberwolves' roster the entire season, as the Wolves will be happy to pay the final $1 million on his contract.

If Lyles's play doesn't translate back to the NBA game, though, he might find himself right back out of the league as a Wolves roster and salary cap casualty.

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