Can the Blazers Stun the Spurs? The Reality of Portland's 3-1 Deficit

The Portland Trail Blazers find themselves in a precarious position, trailing 3-1 in their first-round series against the San Antonio Spurs after a crushing fourth-quarter collapse in Game 4.

While the spirit of Rip City remains, a look at NBA history reveals that the Blazers are staring down a statistical mountain that few have ever climbed.

The 3-1 Deficit: A Statistical Death Sentence?

San Antonio Spurs guard De'aaron Fox drives to the basket against Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Coming back from a 3-1 deficit is one of the rarest feats in professional sports. According to historical playoff data, teams trailing 3-1 in a best-of-seven series have recovered to win just 4.4 percent of the time.

In the history of the NBA playoffs, hundreds of teams have faced this exact deficit. Only 13 teams have ever successfully rallied to win the series.
For the Blazers to survive, they must win three consecutive games against the Spurs, who have already proven their worth by reclaiming the series lead even without Victor Wembanyama in Game 3 when he was in the league's concussion protocol.

Here's a look at the 13 teams that have beaten the odds in a 3-1 deficit:

Winning Team	Losing Team	Year
Denver Nuggets	Los Angeles Clippers	2020
Denver Nuggets	Utah Jazz	2020
Cleveland Cavaliers	Golden State Warriors	2016
Golden State Warriors	Oklahoma City Thunder	2016
Houston Rockets	Los Angeles Clippers	2015
Phoenix Suns	Los Angeles Lakers	2006
Detroit Pistons	Orlando Magic	2003
Miami Heat	New York Knicks	1997
Houston Rockets	Phoenix Suns	1995
Boston Celtics	Philadelphia 76ers	1981
Washington Bullets	San Antonio Spurs	1979
Los Angeles Lakers	Phoenix Suns	1970
Boston Celtics	Philadelphia 76ers	1968

Why This Series Feels Different

San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper dribbles the ball against Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The Blazers entered this postseason with momentum, fueled by Deni Avdija’s All-Star caliber play and the tactical leadership of interim coach Tiago Splitter. However, the Spurs, bolstered by the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and the looming presence of Victor Wembanyama, have exploited the Blazers' late-game inconsistencies.

The Game 4 loss was particularly demoralizing. Despite holding a lead, a stagnation in the fourth quarter allowed San Antonio to push Portland to the brink of elimination. In a 3-1 scenario, the margin for error effectively disappears. One more cold shooting night or defensive lapse will end Portland's first playoff run since 2021.

Can the Blazers Pull It Off?

San Antonio Spurs guard De'aaron Fox drives to the basket during the second half. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

To pull off the miracle, Portland needs to find unconventional edges where others see only defeat. This includes:

Portland's path forward depends on getting Avdija back into the dominant form that secured their playoff berth.
The Blazers must find a way to neutralize the Spurs' backcourt depth, particularly Castle’s ability to collapse the defense.
With the series shifting back and forth, taking advantage of home court in a potential Game 6 will be non-negotiable.

In order to get to Game 6, the Blazers have to play a flawless Game 5 in a hostile environment on the road. They need to channel the energy they had in Game 2 when they came back to win in order to do the same again and keep their season alive.

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