Defining a Successful First Season for Blazers Head Coach Micah Nori

Portland Trail Blazers head coach Micah Nori is in a situation unlike any of his peers this season.

The longtime NBA assistant coach is getting his first crack at the reins this season, one of three head coaches in this position alongside the Orlando Magic’s Sean Sweeney and the Dallas Mavericks’ Dusty May. But unlike Sweeney and May, there’s no safety net for Nori. And while NBA head coaches being fired after one season or less isn’t unheard of -- looking at you Frank Vogel and Adrian Griffin -- they are offered a notion of security.

Multi-year contracts tend to do that. It’s a stamp of faith, at the very least, that even if the first go-around doesn’t set the league on fire, the organization believes you have the juice to lift the team to the height it has fallen from or perhaps never reached.

Unfortunately for Nori, the Trail Blazers haven’t extended this level of assurance. They clearly want him to earn it, hence the rare year-to-year deal and below-market salary, but what does “earning” it mean? It can’t simply just be about winning basketball games; Tiago Splitter did that, overachieved in fact, returning Portland to the postseason for the first time in five years, and it didn’t lead to an extension.

This question can likely only be answered by new owner and governor Tom Dundon, but it’s probably not wrong to assume that his motives are not entirely basketball centered. But let’s not be unfair, surely he has to enjoy winning as much as the next guy, and he’s not the first owner to install a new head coach upon arrival. In almost any world besides sports, he’d receive grace for seeking a tangible return on investment before putting all his chips in.

He’s a numbers guy, obviously, so let’s look at some numbers and see where Nori’s path to an extension may lie.

Escape the play-in

Portland Trail Blazers head coach Micah Nori answers questions from the press conference. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A 42-win season doesn’t often galvanize a fanbase. Shattering expectations does, however, and that’s largely what brought joy back to the Rose City. Projected to win less than 36 games last year, along with a certain controversy to start the season, there wasn’t much to be excited for in terms of on-court success, until there was.

With franchise icon Damian Lillard’s return to the court, alongside the addition of two-time All-Star guard Ja Morant and the ascension of Deni Avdija, combined with the continued development of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, expectations have reset.

Fair or not, Nori’s more likely to be extended for exceeding expectations rather than meeting them. Escaping the play-in would certainly do that. Since the 2021-22 season, the first year of the play-in with an 82-game schedule, the sixth-seed in the Western Conference has won a minimum of 48 games.

The Trail Blazers won’t reach that number if they go 16-33 again against .500 and above teams. The added star power and shot creation of Lillard and Morant, assuming they resemble a piece of their former selves, should keep Portland competitive against the cream of the league and help reach that magic number.

Exposure matters

Minnesota Timberwolves lead assistant coach Micah Nori reacts during the first quarter against the Dallas Mavericks. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Portland will never command the media attention that the darlings of the league do. Currently, Dundon captures most of the attention from the national media. He probably wouldn’t mind sharing some of that.

Instead of the national conversation surrounding the Trail Blazers being about the owners’ unusual cost-cutting measures, it can, with a lot of assistance, transform into a sentiment of, “Hm, maybe he did know what he was doing.”

Winning helps, and winning when the most eyes are watching could help do it best. The Trail Blazers played only nine games across ESPN, NBC, Amazon Prime and Peacock last year, going a lousy 2-7. They have 11 games scheduled across the platforms this year, notably against high-profiled opponents in the Lakers, Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Clippers and Warriors.

The more nationally televised games you win, the more perception can shift. It’s difficult to criticize an owner’s financial decisions if the team is doing well, obviously, but it’s also less interesting to discuss on TV or podcasts if the first-year head coach becomes the story. Hard to imagine Dundon wouldn’t consider rewarding the guy who helps take the heat off. Those 11 games could prove critical.

Establish consistent offense

Minnesota Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori looks on in the second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Clearly much of Nori’s contract fate rests on the team's success. It’s not entirely insightful to point toward avoiding the play-in and winning nationally televised games without at least some discussion of how exactly the Trail Blazers could do that.

Lillard and Morant are not known for their defensive prowess. Portland’s defense last year was a point of pride, but there’s almost a certain dropoff to be expected. With the two eating up heavy minutes, the Trail Blazers can’t really be expected to replicate or improve upon last year’s 114.7 defensive rating, 14th-best in the league.

This is where the offensive firepower comes in. It’s why the organization took a chance on Morant. The Trail Blazers ranked 20th in offensive rating (114.4) last year, including a ranking of 27th in field goal percentage from 3-10 feet. Avdija can’t be the only consistent attacker, the lone guy capable of willing his way to the paint and capping the possession with a score on a nightly basis.

Perhaps Henderson and Sharpe help fill this hole, but Morant wasn’t brought in to spot-up on the perimeter. He has to help establish the Trail Blazers as a credible threat in the interior, whether that’s hitting floaters or making the defense respect the drive enough to leave their assignment, creating dump or kick opportunities.

And the Trail Blazers need all the help they can get in creating quality 3-point opportunities. Portland clearly loved the 3-point game, even if they were terrible at it, sitting 28th in 3-point percentage (.343) while launching the third-most per game (42.2).

They were even awful at the easy 3-pointers, being dead-last in 3-point percentage from the corner (.340). Lillard of course should help immensely in this department, but it’s the potential gravity that Morant could command that’s going to really unlock the perimeter game.

Nori is in a tough situation, but it’s not a hopeless one. Yes, the backcourt is crowded, with only so many shots to go around, and the frontcourt isn’t particularly the most attractive in the conference. But the puzzle pieces are there. If he can put it together, return the Trail Blazers to a top-six seed and help shift the conversation surrounding the organization, he may just “earn” himself another year.

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