3 Reasons Blazers Can Actually Upset Suns

While the Phoenix Suns enter the Play-In tournament as the favorite, but the Portland Trail Blazers have the ability to pull off the upset.

Momentum often outweighs seeding in the Play-In Tournament and the Blazers' recent form suggests they are more than just an underdog.

Here are three reasons why the Blazers could beat the Suns and advance to the first round of the playoffs.

Run Out the Shot Clock

Portland Trail Blazers guard Matisse Thybulle against the Phoenix Suns. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Suns rely heavily on their midrange scoring and isolated star play from Devin Booker. However, the Blazers' defensive rotations have become increasingly disruptive against isolation-heavy offenses.

If the Blazers can utilize their length to clog passing lanes and force the Suns' primary scorers into contested, late-clock situations, the Blazers can turn the game on its head. If Portland can also turn defensive rebounds into quick transition opportunities, they can neutralize Phoenix's half-court defensive set before it even forms.

Exploiting the Suns’ Lack of Depth

Phoenix Suns guard Jordan Goodwin reacts during the fourth quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The heavy minutes logged by the Suns' starters throughout the final stretch of the season could finally catch up to them. The Blazers have successfully utilized a deeper rotation to maintain a high level of energy on the floor.

The Blazers will likely run a rotation with Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija and Donovan Clingan as the starters with Matisse Thybulle, Robert Williams III and Shaedon Sharpe coming off the bench. Jerami Grant will also play if he is recovered from his calf is healed. He is listed as questionable for the game.

The Suns will roll with Jalen Green, Devin Booker, Jordan Goodwin, Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams as their starters with Collin Gillespie, Royce O'Neale, Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro as their likely backups. Grayson Allen is questionable for the game and could start if he's available.

If the Blazers can keep the pace high and force the Suns’ bench to play extended minutes, the fatigue factor will favor the younger Blazers squad in the fourth quarter, where the game will likely be won and lost.

Three-Point Shooting

Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker and Jalen Green | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In a single-game elimination, the 3-point line can be the ultimate equalizer. The Blazers have shown a willingness to lean into high-volume shooting from deep, but the Suns are as well. Both teams are in the top five in 3-pointers per game this season.

If the Blazers hit their season average of 42.2 attempts early, it forces the Suns to pull their rim protection away from the paint, opening up the floor for Portland’s secondary playmakers to penetrate and kick.

Our Take

Phoenix Suns forward Ryan Dunn argues with Portland Trail Blazers forward Toumani Camara. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Blazers don't need to be the better team over a seven-game series; they just need to be the more disruptive team for 48 minutes. If the Blazers can lean into their depth and force a high-tempo game, they can pull off the upset and travel to San Antonio.

This is also a great test for both Tiago Splitter and Jordan Ott, two head coaches who are both in their first years leading a team in the NBA. The coach who out-schemes the other will likely pull out the win.

Tip-off between the Blazers and Suns is scheduled for 7 p.m. PT inside the Mortgage Matchup Center. Fans can watch the game on Amazon Prime Video.

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