Stats and Storylines That Could Define Blazers' Playoff Matchup vs. Wembanyama, Spurs

The Blazers enter their First Round matchup against the Spurs as underdogs, but are there winnable statistics that could tilt the scale in their favor?

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama dribbles the ball against Portland Trail Blazers guard Scoot Henderson in the second half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

If you’ve got an up-to-date dictionary, it’s possible that you could turn the page to the word “overachiever,” and find logos from one of two teams: the Portland Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs. One is a bit unlike the other, but as Game One tips off tonight, the Western Conference’s 1-8 clash features two teams who’ve far exceeded preseason expectations.

The Victor Wembanyana-led, 62-win Spurs enter, understandably, as overwhelming favorites, but there are statistics that, if exploited, could factor into Deni Avdija’s Blazers creating a competitive must-see. Here’s one observer’s take on a few of those:

Does the "Rest vs. Rust" Narrative Benefit Portland?

Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe and San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper go after a loose ball in the first half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

During the early-April battle between these two teams, Mike Breen made a point that felt almost unprecedented. Factor in the Spurs’ home-heavy end-of-regular-season stretch, the Play-In Tournament, and the postseason’s schedule, and they’ll have been afforded a luxury of staying in Texas for nearly three weeks. From Apr. 5 to Apr. 23, no Spurs basketball will have been played outside of the Alamo.

They’re unlikely to complain about it, but it also has been a while since the Spurs have had to play a game of high consequence. And, given the importance of what they presume to be a championship run, much of April’s slate was dedicated to getting —  or keeping — their stars, namely Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, back to full health. On the flip side, Portland has had to go full “pedal to the metal,” in search of their season’s first postseason appearance since 2020-21.

Could that urgency work in the Blazers’ favor? Since the Play-In's inception in 2019-20, teams who had to go through the tournament have actually won six different Game One matchups.

Early-game scenarios have often seen Portland attempt to use 3-point math to their favor, launching unconsciously from outside to break the ice. The 11.4 opening-quarter attempts ranks fourth-highest in the NBA, and rightfully so; it’s also their most efficient quarter (36.4 percent), with precipitous declines in the periods thereafter.

Only the defending-champion Thunder boasted a more dominant first quarter net rating than the Spurs (+14.7), but it might represent Portland’s best chance to send a message. But, if not …

How About the Experience Factor?

San Antonio Spurs guard De'Aaron Fox talks with Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija after the Spurs defeated the Trail Blazers 115-102 at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images | Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images

… ask any Spurs skeptic to name one logical reason why they can’t win a title in 2025-26, and in so many words, it’ll boil down to one thing: experience. The old basketball adage is that every up-and-coming could-be contender has to first pay its dues. 

Consider this: of the eight Spurs to log the most regular-season minutes in 2025-26, only a single player —  Harrison Barnes — has played beyond Round One. Subtract him, and you’re left with only De’Aaron Fox, who has only a seven-game, 270-minute cameo in 2023 on his ledger.

How does that relate to Portland? Consider that, in their three head-to-heads, the two Spurs wins offered near-identical backdrops: double-digit second-half leads for San Antonio that were ultimately erased by a spirited rally for Portland, similar to how they prevailed in the Play-In against Phoenix.

It could mean nothing, but it could mean everything. ESPN’s Spurs reporter Michael C. Wright deemed the Spurs’ struggle to close out games impactful enough to label it as their “kryptonite” heading into the postseason; as noted, that youthful group has lost 13 different games with a double-digit lead, the NBA’s fourth most. Portland certainly couldn’t call itself an “experienced group” either, but it’s worth monitoring.

Is the Playoff Whistle Favorable for Deni Avdija?

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija against Phoenix Suns guard Jordan Goodwin in the second half during the play-in rounds of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Even in head-to-heads against the Western Conference’s second-most productive team, the philosophy for Deni Avdija went unchanged: if a driving lane is present, get downhill, and either score, or get to the charity stripe. 

This year’s meetings against San Antonio reflect that perfectly, with Avdija averaging 31.7 points per game — his second-highest against any 2025-26 opponent — alongside a whopping 9.7 free throw attempts, and an eye-opening 22-of-36 on inside-the-paint attempts.

As brilliant as those numbers are, a grain of salt is required for two reasons: (1) a seven-foot, four-inch absence on the Spurs’ side in all three matchups, and (2) the idea that it might be more difficult to get those types of whistles come postseason time.

Contrary to popular belief, free throw attempts were actually higher in the postseason compared to the regular season. Last year, the free throw rate per field goal attempt in the playoffs settled at 25.0 percent, a steep climb from the 20.6 percent figure in the regular season. That’s been the case over the last two postseasons.

But, it’s worth mentioning, since we’ve already seen Avdija verbally file into the “complaint box” on whistles he felt were deserving; see the end of the Play-In win over Phoenix for reference. Does his attack-the-rim strategy change with Wembanyama commanding the middle? Six different league leaders in drives per game have made the postseason since the statistic was first tracked in 2013-14; four of them saw their free throw attempts dip in the playoffs. How that plays out — and Avdija’s ability to hit said free throws — could factor in, especially in close situations.

Other Statistics to Consider:

San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson drives to the basket during the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

— Per NBA.com's Jeff Zillgitt, only two tanking teams —  the Nets and Wizards — had a less efficient initial offense than the Blazers, which makes them reliant on offensive rebounds (14.1 per game, No. 2 in the NBA) and second-chance points (18.4 per game, No. 1). Just as you might’ve expected, the Spurs are the fourth-best in both opponent offensive rebounds allowed and second-chance points allowed. A true clash of styles.

— The head-to-head between benches. The Spurs profile as the NBA’s most efficient (49.6 percent shooting overall), but in a Jan. 3, 2026 win, Portland held the odds-on Sixth Man of the Year favorite Keldon Johnson and Dylan Harper to just 16.7 percent (3-of-18), and the Spurs’ bench as a whole to just 5-of-31. On the contrary, in the Apr. 8 loss, Portland’s bench was outscored 48-10.

— Toumani Camara feels like the series’ X-factor, given that he’s one of a few capable bodies Portland could throw at Wembanyama in switches, and one that could shadow Fox in full-court pressure sets, as already shown. In 78 partial possessions, Fox shot 50 percent (9-of-18) against Camara, but did commit five turnovers.

Game One Prediction — Spurs, 118; Trail Blazers, 105 — The thinking is that Game One offers a similar scenario; Portland keeps it close, setting a series tone, before turnovers and a wild 3-point variance allows San Antonio to pull away.

Series Prediction — Spurs in five. Portland steals a Game Three in Rose City, leaving the national media to heap praise and “can they upset” discussions over the 48 hours thereafter. It won’t be the case, but it’ll prove symbolic for how bright Portland’s future is.