Trail Blazers vs. Spurs, Game 4 Preview: What Must Portland Accomplish for an Upset Win?

The Blazers have a chance to tie the series at 2-2 against the Spurs on Sunday afternoon. What are some key storylines worth considering beforehand?

San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper reacts after scoring against Portland Trail Blazers guard Jrue Holiday during the second half during game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images | Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images

Moda Center, understandably, found itself in a stunned silence after the San Antonio Spurs turned a 15-point second-half deficit into a 120-108 win over the Trail Blazers in Game 3. But, make no mistake about it: with a chance to tie the series on Sunday afternoon, Portland will be packed with energy.

Obstacles will run aplenty, as Portland attempts to tie the series at two games apiece; here are three storylines worth keeping tabs on:

The Mental Aspect of Game 3’s Collapse:

There’s no way to sugarcoat it, since Portland has already admitted that Game 3’s loss was the type of defeat one would “lose sleep over.” 

The cliches are ones we’ve heard time-and-time again throughout professional sports: “next game mentality,” “flushing” a regrettable performance — pick your favorite phrase. The reality remains the same: when the Blazers touch Moda Center in Game 4, they’ll arrive as a team that let a 15-point third quarter edge — and a 2-1 series advantage — slip through its fingertips.

It isn’t an end-of-the-world development, but the mental boost that San Antonio now has in knowing that they can “flip the switch” and produce offensive firestorms in the postseason without Victor Wembanyama — it encourages the type of swagger that doesn’t show up on a statsheet.

Or maybe it does? 

At some point during NBC’s Friday broadcast, a statistic came about that feels capable of, maybe, defining this series. It went something like this:

Postseason games played by each Blazers starter:

— Jrue Holiday —  100

— Deni Avdija —  3

— Toumani Camara — 3

— Scoot Henderson — 3

— Donovan Clingan — 3

Portland figures to someday be a veteran team with this group, but Apr. 26, 2026 won’t be the day. A battle-tested team might be able to better withstand the “peaks,” and the “valley” that was the second half of Game 3. This isn’t to say this year’s iteration of the Blazers can’t, but it’ll be something to watch.

Wemby or No Wemby, Portland Must Win the “Lineups” Battles:

Portland Trail Blazers center Robert Williams III dunks over San Antonio Spurs forward Carter Bryant during the first half of game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images | Jaime Valdez-Imagn Images

Victor Wembanyama’s presence — poetically — stands as the most-discussed storyline of this series, but make no mistake about it: the backcourt play on both sides has quickly become a showstealer. 

We’re unofficially labelling Game 2 as “The Scoot Henderson Game,” and after Henderson “poked the bears” in San Antonio too often, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle turned Game 3 into spotlight performances of their own. 

Alongside becoming just NBA history’s second-ever duo to record 25+ points each at 21-years-old or younger, the Castle-Harper pairing — with help from some variation that also included De’Aaron Fox, Carter Bryant, and Keldon Johnson — unlocked “small ball” pairings that Portland simply had no answers for.

If Game 3 were an UNO card game, the Spurs had “draw twos” variations in every color; no matter the combination, nor counter, the deck was too difficult for Portland to have any answer, and the lineup data confirms as such. To illustrate:

— Castle-Harper-Johnson lineups: +14.3 in 23 minutes

— Fox-Harper-Johnson lineups: +33.7 in 22 minutes

— Harper-Bryant-Johnson lineups: +24.9 in 22 minutes

By now, you get the picture. The Trail Blazers would unquestionably prefer to solve that puzzle over anything involving Wembanyama, but it’ll be a struggle nonetheless. Portland’s in-the-paint shooting (48.8 percent on 45 shot attempts) during a Wemby-less Game 3 don’t invite enthusiasm, but it isn’t a huge concern.

Portland will have their own lineup quirks to work through, with Robert Williams III’s minutes yielded better results than second-year talent Donovan Clingan thus far. 

There’s also the matter of Jerami Grant, who has his fair share of clutch moments, but also a 7-of-25 shooting start, and a minus-42 plus-minus in 62 minutes. Cohesion is everything, and needless to say, whoever reaps the unique benefits best will win Game 4.

Can Free Throws Become Less “Expensive” for Downhill Deni?

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija reacts after drawing a foul while scoring during the first half of game one of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

[Is yours truly all alone in thinking that this could become one of the NBA’s coolest nicknames?]

The topic itself has been discussed in-depth, but no preview is legitimate without factoring in Deni Avdija’s presence on this game. 

Portland’s offense —  and the decibel levels inside Moda Center — will hinge greatly on what their first-time All-Star will provide, and that’ll depend on a couple of factors.

Among the most obvious:

• How friendly the whistle is for Avdija; as noted, his percentage of points at the charity stripe was way down prior to Game 3.
• How Portland gameplans to encourage spacing, a luxury he wasn’t often guaranteed in Game 3.

And, a subtle, less obvious one:

• If Avdija can rediscover his touch in that “floater-range” area from 3-to-10 feet. During regular-season play, he shot 41.6 percent in that area; this postseason, it’s down to 23.5 percent. 

Just how important is it? This area of the floor accounts for the highest percentage of Avdija’s attempts —  by far —  so, very important.

To hammer down that point on just how important a whistle might be against the Spurs’ contact, consider this:

Avdija on drives — reg. season vs. postseason

• Reg. Season — 19.4 drives / game (No. 1 in NBA) ⇒ 51.1% FG ⇒ 10.1% foul draw rate
• Postseason —  23.3 drives / game (No. 1 in NBA) ⇒ 31.0% FG ⇒ 7.1% foul draw rate

So, a lack of whistles relative to the regular season, and a lack of accuracy on Avdija’s part. The bottom line, though, is that Portland’s megatalent isn’t far off from yet another marquee game, and with Portland’s season hinging on a win, one would imagine the call will be answered on Sunday.

Prediction — Spurs, 111; Blazers, 107. All that said, it’ll be difficult to argue against a Spurs team that: (1) is riding a wave of momentum, and (2) could get their Most Valuable Player finalist back. The prediction is a red-hot start for San Antonio, a resilient fight thereafter, and ultimately, a narrow win for those in silver-and-black.