Brandin Podziemski Warriors Extension Primer: Why $17M Is Key Number

The Golden State Warriors are probably feeling like they can't afford to lose Brandin Podziemski.

After all, they missed on the James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga and Patrick Baldwin first-round picks. They are one of the oldest teams in the NBA. They need more players entering their primes like the 23-year-old guard.

The hope would be that Podz, Yaxel Lendeborg and Moses Moody are still around after Stephen Curry retires. Sure, those three aren't necessarily cornerstones, but they could be great supporting pieces when the Dubs get their next cornerstone.

Podz is extension-eligible through Oct. 19. If the two sides don't come to an agreement, he will enter restricted free agency in the offseason.

Below is all the info you need about Podz's extension.

Podz's Value

Podz is a classic case of being more valuable than he looks to the average fan.

It's obvious he's not a primary offensive creator, which is the thing fans value most. He can score in a one-on-one situation or drive to set up a teammate for a high-quality shot, but he doesn't do either consistently.

Though his defensive impact numbers are always strong, he's also not a lock-down on-ball defender.

Podz simply does a lot of other things well. He's a decent three-point shooter on decent volume. He rarely turns the ball over. He rebounds better than most shooting guards. He's durable (played all 82 games last season). He takes more charges than any player.

Podz could argue he's worth $25 million-plus in average annual value. That would put him in the same contract area as Nuggets guard Christian Braun, whom I'd argue isn't more valuable than Podz.

Some will claim he's worth much less than that because on-ball offense and on-ball defense are the two most valuable parts of a guard's game, and he's not great at either.

$17 Million Is a Key Number

The Warriors are projected to have a significant amount of cap space next free agency, but how they handle Podz's contract will play a role in how much they have.

If Podz enters 2027 restricted free agency, he'll have a $17 million cap hold, which eats into their projected cap space.

Say the Warriors wanted to sign Anthony Davis for $50 million in 2027 free agency. Let's pretend the Dubs agreed to terms with Stephen Curry, taking their roster commitments up to $120 million with the salary-cap line at $176 million.

They actually couldn't afford to pay Davis $50 million due to Podz's cap hold:

Salary commitments: $120M
Podz's cap hold: $17M
Total cap allotments: $137M
Salary-cap line: $176M
Cap space: $39M (Salary-cap line subtracted by total cap allotments)

The Warriors' main option would be renouncing Podz's cap hold to afford Davis, but once a cap hold is renounced, that player is an unrestricted free agent. The Dubs would not have enough cap space to give Podz a big offer, so they'd be stuck with trying to bring him back with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which projects to be $16 million.

That's risky because another team with cap space could offer him more. If I had to guess, Podz would leave the Warriors in this hypothetical.

There's probably no scenario in which Podz will accept a deal worth less than his $17 million cap hold, and there's probably no scenario in which the Warriors will renounce his $17 million cap hold.

With those two assumptions, it would make sense to offer him an extension with a starting salary of $17 million.

Podz's team will ask for more, and maybe the Warriors would be willing to get it done now for a starting number that's a million or two higher.

But every salary concession the Dubs make will eat into their 2027 cap space. They need to establish a hard line and be willing to go into 2027 free agency if Podz is demanding too much.

How Extension Timelines for Poole and Moody Could Be Similar to Podz's

Jordan Poole was in the same position as Podz in 2022. He was entering his fourth year with the hope of a big extension instead of having to go into restricted free agency in 2023.

Poole got the bag with a four-year contract worth up to $140 million. He signed the contract three days before the start of the season.

Moody was also in the same position as Podz in 2024. He signed a three-year extension worth up to $39 million three days before the start of the season.

This is to say the Podz extension decision could easily go down to the wire.

The Pros and Cons of Waiting to Next Offseason

One possible negative to waiting is Podz having a breakout season that gives him a bigger market in 2027 restricted free agency. Perhaps a rival team will sign Podz to a $30 million AAV offer sheet if he excels this season. The Dubs don't want to be put in that position.

One advantage of waiting is not locking Podz into a potentially regrettable contract.

The Dubs can look back on their contract mistake with Poole for guidance. They gave him too much, and a year later they salary-dumped him for Chris Paul.

But the main difference here is that Podz won't be getting anything close to Poole's contract this offseason.

Another advantage of waiting is having more optionality. It would be easier to trade Podz this season without him having signed an extension. If Podz has a disastrous season, releasing him would be an option in the offseason if he's not extended.

But the truth is whether the Warriors extend him now or re-sign him in the 2027 offseason, his contract will probably be of similar length and value.

That is to say, there isn't a huge advantage or disadvantage to waiting.

It's truly a toss-up on whether the two sides agree on an extension.

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