Breaking Down the Warriors' Draft Picks, Protections & Lottery Odds

The Golden State Warriors are waiting until the May 10 NBA Draft Lottery to find out where they will be picking in the first round of the 2026 draft.

In this article I break down what picks the Warriors have through 2032, which picks have protections and what the odds are for Golden State to move up in the 2026 lottery.

And I conclude with a few possible draft targets for the Dubs with their 2026 first-round pick.

Draft Picks and Protections

The Warriors have full ownership of their first-round picks in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2031 and 2032. They have partial ownership of their 2030 first.

They will keep their 2030 first if they land in the top 20. If they land between 21-30, they will trade the pick to the Mavericks.

The Warriors don't own anyone else's first-round pick for the next seven years.

As for second-round picks, the Warriors have traded full ownership of theirs in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2031.

They owe their 2030 second to the Mavs if their first lands between 1-20. They owe their 2032 second to the Grizzlies if the second-round pick falls between 51-60.

On the bright side, they acquired the Lakers' 2026 second-round pick in the Trayce Jackson-Davis trade. That pick will be 54th overall.

Here is a list view of their picks:

	1st Round	2nd Round
2026	Full ownership	Own 54th pick
2027	Full ownership	Traded
2028	Full ownership	Traded
2029	Full ownership	Traded
2030	Protected 1-20	Protected 51-60
2031	Full ownership	Traded
2032	Full ownership	Protected 31-50

2026 Lottery Odds

The Warriors finished with the 11th-worst record in the NBA, so not surprisingly, they are likely to pick 11th. They have a 77.6 percent chance of staying at 11th.

In the lottery, the top four picks are chosen by random selecting of pingpong balls. The Warriors have a 9.4 percent chance of being one of those four teams.

They have a 2.0 percent chance at the No. 1 pick.

Here is a list view of their chances of landing each of the top four picks:

1st Pick	2nd Pick	3rd Pick	4th Pick
2.0%	2.2%	2.4%	2.8%

But it's also possible teams below them jump ahead of them into the lottery. So here is a list view of the odds they pick 11th or worse:

11th Pick	12th Pick	13th Pick	14th Pick
77.6%	12.6%	0.4%	>0.0%

It is impossible for the Warriors to get any pick between fifth and 10th.

2026 1st-Round Targets

If the Warriors are picking in the top four, it's likely they will be targeting BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke center Cam Boozer or UNC forward Caleb Wilson.

If they land 11th, it's harder to predict who they will target.

If they are looking for immediate impact, they can't go wrong with 23-year-old Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg. He helped lead the Wolverines to a national championship by finishing second in the nation in Box Plus/Minus.

If they are looking for a ball-handling guard who can play with Stephen Curry at times and run the offense when he rests, they could target 20-year-old Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr. He averaged 22.0 points and 5.0 assists in his sophomore season.

If they are looking for a center, which could be the case if Al Horford and/or Kristaps Porzingis leaves in free agency, Michigan's Aday Mara could fit the bill. The 7'3" 21-year-old averaged 12.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game for the Wolverines.

Other prospects possibly on the radar are New Zealand Breakers small forward Karim Lopez, Tennessee small forward Nate Ament and Washington center Hannes Steinbach.

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