Why 2 Stats Show Warriors' Biggest Trade Deadline Need

Depending on who you ask, you might get several different answers on the Golden State Warriors' biggest trade deadline need.

Some will say it's a point-of-attack defender. Others will say it's a big three-and-D wing. And others will say it's a center who can rebound and defend the rim.

The Warriors could use all of these things, but we haven't hit on the biggest need yet.

It's someone who can score in the paint.

Two Stats Show How Big of a Weakness This Is

The Warriors are 29th in points in the paint, averaging just 41.1 per game. If the season ended today, that would be second-lowest per-game total of the last five years.

That's the first glaring stat. But this next one might be more damning.

The Warriors have just three players averaging 4.0-plus points in the paint per game. Of the 30 teams in the NBA, 28 have at least five players averaging 4.0-plus. Only the Boston Celtics have as few as the Warriors.

You can imagine how much easier it is to defend the Warriors than other teams when you can practically ignore the possibility that players other than Jimmy Butler (9.2 PITP), Jonathan Kuminga (7.5 PITP) and Stephen Curry (7.3 PITP) will score in the paint.

The Kuminga Conundrum

The most realistic way for the Warriors to add another paint scorer is to trade Jonathan Kuminga when he's first eligible to be dealt in mid-January. The issue is Kuminga is one of the team's best paint scorers, so how would trading him help fix the problem?

There are two ways. First, the returning player could be a much more prolific paint scorer than Kuminga. For example, Ivica Zubac is averaging 14.7 points in the paint per game. If the Clippers are in sell mode by the February 5 trade deadline, the Warriors could target him with a Kuminga-plus-picks package.

The other way is the returning player could help create points in the paint for himself and his teammates.

Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 8.3 points in the paint per game, but he's also a feared three-pointer shooter who would create paint points with his gravity.

Domantas Sabonis is averaging 11.8 points in the paint per game, but he creates much more in dribble handoff sets and as a passer (career 4.9 assists per game).

Of these three, Zubac is the best fit because he's a much better defensively player than the other two.

Perhaps there are better solutions out there, but I'm confident about one thing: If the Warriors trade Kuminga, they'll need to get a paint scorer in return. They can't expect Curry and Butler to carry that much offensive burden.

Comparing This Year's Team to the 2021-22 Championship Team

The 2021-22 championship team had eight players averaging at least four points in the paint per game, five more than this year's team.

Andrew Wiggins led the team with 6.9 PITP, but Jordan Poole was the most crucial piece to the puzzle, averaging 5.8 himself but also creating much more with drives that set up his teammates.

That offense simply hummed more than this year's, as the Warriors got great PITP contributions from Kuminga (5.1), Draymond Green (5.0), Kevon Looney (4.8), Gary Payton II (4.7) and Klay Thompson (4.4) to help out Wiggins, Curry (6.0) and Poole.

How Important Is a Good Ranking in PITP to Title Contention?

The short answer to the subhead question is it's not essential. The 2021-22 Warriors ranked 25th in PITP with 44.7 per game. The Celtics ranked 27th (47.0 per game) in their 2023-24 championship season.

But I doubt that a team averaging just 41.1 per game like this year's Warriors can win a title.

That's an abysmal average, and it's clearly affecting the Golden State offense as a whole.

This year's Warriors are 22nd in offensive rating. Part of their offense's issue is their turnover rate (26th), but that's connected to their lack of paint scoring. For example, countless times they've gotten the ball to someone in the paint for what should be an easy two, but that player has felt the need to make another pass, eventually leading to a turnover.

So naturally, with so few threats to score in the paint, the Warriors are attempting the second-most threes per game. But they aren't an elite shooting team (12th in three-point percentage), so you get these wild swings from game to game, and that about explains their 10-9 record.

My point here isn't that the Warriors need to replace half their roster with paint scorers. All I'm arguing is that the Warriors can't be second-worst-in-the-NBA bad in paint points. Even a slight improvement could make a big difference.