The Fall of the Warriors Dynasty Part 1: Multiple Wiseman Mistakes

When the Golden State Warriors won their fourth title in eight years in 2022, their dynasty seemed rejuvenated.

Alas, there reign on the NBA was actually ending.

Since, they've won just two playoff series and missed the playoffs altogether twice.

In this four-part series that's loosely in chronological order, we go over how the Warriors' dynasty fell.

We begin with the all the mistakes the Dubs made with James Wiseman.

Taking Wiseman Despite Unusual Draft Profile

As the Warriors were struggling through a 2019-20 gap year, it was clear that they were going to get a high-end lottery pick. They ended up landing No. 2 overall.

We'll never know exactly how much organization agreement there was on taking Wiseman, but we do know Joe Lacob got what he wanted.

“To be honest with you, he was my No. 1 forever, basically,” Lacob said after the Warriors drafted him. “I just think he’s a once-in-a-decade kind of guy. I would argue that, other than (Joel) Embiid, I don’t know that there’s another center prospect that’s come along in the last decade that you would put in the same category."

Wiseman played just three games in college, which meant he had an unusually small amount of tape against decent competition.

Lacob and the Warriors weren't deterred by that, as he had been a hyped high school player for years. In his senior season, he averaged 25.8 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.5 blocks per game.

Some scouts believed he was worth a top-two pick mostly due to his combination of size (7'1") and athleticism.

Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman was among the scouts who didn't think he was worth such a high pick.

"He's currently a rim runner and finisher, and that's fine, because with his size and bounce, he should continue to be a high-percentage target and cleanup man around the basket. But that won't be enough to justify top-five overall value," Wasserman wrote. "How much can and will he improve his shot creation, shooting and passing?"

Warning Signs Ignored from Rookie Season

Wiseman's counting stats were decent for a rookie—11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds in 21.4 minutes per game. But his net rating was a warning sign the Warriors ignored.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Dubs were 17.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Wiseman on the floor.

Of course there is some expectation that a rookie will bring down his team's net rating.

The following Warriors had negative net ratings as rookies: Klay Thompson (-1.7), Draymond Green (-4.3) and Harrison Barnes (-0.8).

But minus-17.8 suggests the problems went beyond typical rookie bumps in the road.

It was clear that Wiseman needed a long runway that conflicted with what Stephen Curry was doing in the present. He averaged 32.0 points per game in 2020-21 on outrageous efficiency, but the Warriors were so bad around him that they missed the playoffs.

Wiseman suffered a torn meniscus in April, and it was not clear when he would return.

Even with the injury, the Dubs could have traded Wiseman before his second season started while his value was still pretty high to a rebuilding team tantalized by his potential, but Lacob explained to Tim Kawakami why they wouldn't consider it.

“I’m very high on James. Very high on James. You just don’t see that kind of talent very often. Look, is it this year, right away? Is it this year later in the year? Is it next year? I don’t know. It takes these guys usually until Year 3. Jordan Poole (is coming into his own) in Year 3. Even Kobe Bryant, it wasn’t right away. … I think what you have to do is wait a little bit to see what they’re going to be. Wait ’til Year 3 to kind of really know what you’ve got.”

Warriors Double Down on Youth After Winning Title

Wiseman never appeared in a game with Golden State during his second season after suffering a setback in his rehab. Without him, the Warriors won it all, defying the odds after missing the playoffs the last two seasons.

Their window for another sustained run of dominance was opened if they made more of an organizational commitment to winning now.

But what Lacob told Anthony Slater during the locker room celebration showed their priority was not doing whatever it took to improve the roster for a repeat run.

“They were doubted,” Lacob said in regards to the core of Curry, Thompson, Green and Andrew Wiggins. “But these guys are not 40 years old. We believed in that core. Not many teams have a core four. A lot of people say core three. I say core four. We’re spending the money to do that. Then, we supplement and surround that team. I know some people thought we could’ve done more, got another star. But who were we going to get? Who was available that would make a difference? We didn’t think there was, and we really wanted these young guys to be developed and learn from these guys. They have learned. We are going to be even better as a result of that in the years going forward.”

This was the key window to trade Wiseman. If he struggled early in his third season, his trade value would be shot. Even if they didn't trade for another star, they could have gotten some high-value draft capital for him that gave them more options in the future.

Instead, they kept him and played him as reserve center, and the results were disastrous.

Wiseman had a minus-22.8 net rating in 21 appearances. His offense was an issue, as he had shown no growth as a shooter or passer. But the bigger issue was his defense, as he was constantly just out of place, leading to wide-open shots and free throws for the opponent.

Partially because they chose to let Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II walk to save money while paying Wiseman $9.6 million, the Warriors had much less margin for error and got off to a bad 3-7 start. They eventually concluded they had to bench the third-year center.

The Dubs traded Wiseman for a package headlined by Payton at the trade deadline. After getting Payton, they discovered he had a core muscle injury that ended up keeping him out for six weeks.

But even if Payton were healthy, there was no getting around how big of a debacle this was.

When the Spurs had a gap year in 1996-97, they selected Tim Duncan in the next draft. That was the dream.

The Warriors' reality was a draft bust traded so late that the best they could was get an eighth man of the rotation for him.

Who knows how much better off the Warriors would be if they got even an average result from what a No. 2 pick typically brings. Completely whiffing was the first major blow to the dynasty in the 2020s. There were a few other major mistakes that I'll explore in Parts 2, 3 and 4.

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