Warriors-Clippers Play-In Game Predictions Roundup: Why Experts Are Wrong

It's no surprise that the LA Clippers are favored to beat the Golden State Warriors in Wednesday's play-in game.

After all, the Clippers are 36-19 since starting the season 6-21. That's the sixth-best record in the league in that span.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are 12-26 since Jimmy Butler's season-ending injury.

These teams have been going in different directions, but there are reasons to believe the Warriors can pull of an upset.

The main one is that Stephen Curry is healthy and more fresh than most players are at this time of year. Though he has a minutes restriction, 30-plus minutes of Curry should make the Warriors more dangerous.

But most writers don't think Curry's presence will tip the scales enough.

NBA Writers Overwhelmingly Picking Clippers

Across six major sports outlets, the Clippers are being picked to win by 26 of 31 writers:

ESPN: 11 Clippers, 2 Warriors
CBS Sports: 6 Clippers, 0 Warriors
USA Today: 4 Clippers, 3 Warriors
Yahoo Sports: 3 Clippers, Warriors 0
Bleacher Report: 1 Clippers, Warriors 0
Sporting News: 1 Clippers, Warriors 0

Why Warriors Will Prove Experts Wrong

On Wednesday, the Warriors will be playing their best lineup since the Butler injury. They have had all seven of Curry, Brandin Podziemski, De'Anthony Melton, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Gui Santos and Al Horford available for just one game this season.

They had six of those seven available for their one-point loss to the Rockets on April 5, and Curry played only 26 minutes that game, finishing a plus-12. That type of performance is what should be expected in LA.

Meanwhile, the Clippers are 19-14 since Ivica Zubac's last game, but that record is inflated by playing tanking teams.

Against the nine tanking teams in that span, the Clippers went 10-1. Against non-tankers, they were 9-13, with one of those wins coming against a Warriors team without Curry and Porzingis.

The two games that they were supposed to get up for against the Trail Blazers, they lost by 10 and 19, respectively.

This is all to say that the Clippers are more vulnerable than the writers think.

The other thing to consider is that the Warriors arguably have more talent.

Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey published his end-of-season Huge Nerd Index, which is a metric that averages 12 catch-all stats.

The ranks of Curry's supporting cast are as follows:

- Porzingis (89th)
- Podz (93rd)
- Payton (132nd)
- Santos (143rd)
- Melton (184th)
- Horford (195th)
- Green (254th)

The ranks of Leonard's supporting cast are below:

- Garland (113th)
- Collins (137th)
- Jones (145th)
- Dunn (159th)
- Miller (181st)
- Lopez (205th)
- Mathurin (234th)

The average rank of the Warriors' seven projected rotation players after Curry is 155.7.

The average rank of the Clippers' seven projected rotation players after Leonard is 167.7.

If Leonard severely outperforms Curry, the supporting casts might not matter. But if Curry has a big game, the Warriors should be able to pull this one out.

Prediction: Warriors by four

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