Why Warriors' Roster Was Bigger Issue Than Steve Kerr's Coaching

Everyone shares some fault, but let's not make it seem like Kerr was the singular problem

Steve Kerr | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The split between Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors is looking more inevitable by the day.

ClutchPoints' Brett Siegel reported Kerr and the Warriors braintrust will meet by end of the week. They will decide in that meeting whether Kerr will return.

You might think a coach who has won four championships in 12 years wouldn't be the subject of leaked criticism that has become commonplace for players and executives when they leave the Warriors, but alas, you would have been wrong to think that.

ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Anthony Slater reported that Warriors management believes the team needs "philosophy tweaks," including "focusing on diversifying the offensive attack and winning the analytically friendly possession battle more often." Shelburne and Slater also reported that internally, Warriors management felt "they were too reliant this season on three-point variance."

Even if these criticisms are accurate (which we'll get to in a bit), why leak them if you're trying to convince your all-time great coach to return?

But that's not what this column is about. It's about responding to this criticism with the truth:

For the last few years, the roster has been a bigger issue than Kerr's coaching.

Major Roster Issues

The criticisms in the ESPN article are code for the following:

- The Warriors offense had too much side-to-side passing, which became predictable
- That offensive strategy led to too many turnovers
- The Warriors shot too many threes

These are fair criticisms. Kerr's offense is designed for lots of passes that lead to a lot of three-point looks, and the consequence of having dozens of more passes per game than opponents is a higher potential for turnovers.

But what's missing from this criticism is any self-awareness about the roster.

The Warriors are among the worst teams in the NBA in the following:

- Ball-handling
- Creating rim pressure
- Finishing in the paint
- Rebounding

When the Warriors were winning the 2022 title, they were at least adequate in all of these categories. Jordan Poole was decent at the first three, which helped make it so teams weren't keying in on Stephen Curry quite as much.

Kevon Looney was an excellent rebounder, helping the Warriors finish eighth in rebound percentage.

The Warriors have not replaced what these players did for them.

Jimmy Butler provides some of what Poole does, and to be clear, Butler is a much better all-around player.

Of course Butler got injured this year, but even when he was healthy, the Warriors were missing another guard who could threaten a defense. In a sense, Butler was replacing Andrew Wiggins' wing scoring (with some great playmaking as well), but no guard has replaced Poole's rim pressure and paint finishing.

To put it simply, the Warriors' had the least threatening backup point guard situation in the league. That's why so many of their lineups had to pass so much, which led to a high turnover rate.

To make up for losing the possession battle via turnovers, the Warriors could have loaded up on rebounders. But they did not.

In his last four seasons with the Warriors, Looney averaged 13.4 rebounds per 36 minutes. Golden State's leaders (Post and Payton) in this category (minimum of 37 games played) this season averaged 8.4.

This roster needed Kerr's approach to stay afloat. It needed a system with movement and off-ball screens to create advantages because its players couldn't create those advantages off the dribble.

Was the Roster Chosen for Kerr, Making the Issues Partially His Fault?

We don't know what went into every roster decision, but it's likely that Kerr pushed for players with more passing and shooting talent and less dribbling and iso-scoring talent to fit his system.

But we do know one case in which the front office went with the iso-scoring talent over the better system fit.

Kerr reportedly wanted Franz Wagner over Jonathan Kuminga in the 2021 draft, but the Joe Lacob-led front office was enamored with Kuminga's potential.

Kuminga never reached the potential the Warriors had in mind.

This is where many will say if the Warriors simply ran more iso and let Kuminga handle the ball more, he might be the star they are missing.

But what seems more likely is Kuminga will never be that player, regardless of what systems he plays in moving forward.

The combination of drafting Kuminga and James Wiseman did more damage to this team than any strategy Kerr implemented. The front office should be evaluating itself more harshly than Kerr's offense.

Quantifying Talent Drain

In March, I tried to quantify how far behind the Warriors were in talent by using Huge Nerd Index, a metric coined by Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey that averages 12 catch-all stats to rank players.

At the time, the Warriors had just two players in the top 95 of this stat. Of the other 19 teams competing for playoff positioning, 17 of them had at least three players in the top 95. Nine of them had at least five players.

Outside of Curry and Butler, the Warriors are in a talent desert.

Kristaps Porzingis would be a decent third option if he could stay on the court, but the fact that he's missed more than half of the games over the last two seasons essentially doesn't help fix the talent problem.

Perhaps if the Warriors played a different system, some of their players would be better developed and rank better in these catch-all stats. But do you really believe Brandin Podziemski would suddenly be a top-50 player getting limitless pick-and-roll and iso possessions? Or Moses Moody?

They are quality role players, to be sure. But they are nothing more.

Warriors Might Need a New Voice Anyway

That anyone is primarily blaming Kerr for the last four years of Warriors failures is unfair, but it might be time for a new coach anyway.

It is true that the offense needs to be revamped, and even if the Warriors get a better roster, perhaps a coach with new ideas would be what this team needs.

Kerr said it himself after the Warriors' play-in game loss to the Suns: "These jobs all have an expiration date."

There's no doubt that Kerr helped revolutionized the sport with an offense perfectly tailored for the shooting of Curry and Klay Thompson.

But after 12 years, it may be time for a change, and that's OK.

The onus will be on the front office finding a new coach who can have a Kerr-like impact quickly.