Why NFL Teams Should Tank for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye
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Lots of questions looking ahead this week. We’ll dive in on those …
From Mike Woodford (@DFlutieBB): Do you think “tanking” will be a big issue this season with the group of QBs available to draft next year?
Mike, in a word, yes. What’s more, I think it absolutely should be.
Let’s, for a second here, go on the assumption that USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye play like they’re expected to in the fall—and the Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert comps hold water into early 2024. If that’s established and I’m, say, the owner of a 2–10 team in December, I am 100% doing what I can to game the system to land one of the first two picks, and preferably the first pick, with my football folks.
Earlier in the offseason, I had a conversation with a general manager who told me he’d be furious at Lovie Smith if he were Nick Caserio over the way Houston’s Week 18 game was handled. He said that he wouldn’t tank a whole season, under any circumstances, but in the case where he was that close, and winning a game had lost its meaning, he saw it as borderline malpractice to not do what you could to get the first pick.
Williams threw for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns as a sophomore for the Trojans in 2022.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
This year, it sure looks like the stakes will be raised from where they were last year, because most people I’ve talked to regard Williams and Maye as superior prospects at this point to Bryce Young or any other quarterback in the 2023 class.
Now, there are examples where a team thought to be tanking for a quarterback actually wasn’t, and it worked out in the end. A great one is the 2017 Bills, who offloaded Ronald Darby and Sammy Watkins in training camp, dealt Marcell Dareus in season, made the playoffs and wound up with Josh Allen the following April anyway.
But there are more cases out there where losing is, in fact, the best thing for a team.
The Jets beat two playoff-bound teams in a row, the Rams and Browns, in December 2020, and it cost them Trevor Lawrence. Conversely, creative roster management helped the Colts snap a two-game win streak in December 2011 to land Andrew Luck over Robert Griffin III. And the Eagles’ Week 17 white flag in 2020 moved them up from No. 9 to No. 6 in the draft order. They traded down from No. 6 to No. 12 and ended up with an extra first-rounder in 2022 for it. The two first-rounders resulting from the tanking became DeVonta Smith and Jordan Davis.
Maye threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns for the Tar Heels in 2022.
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You think the Bengals lament the Week 16 overtime loss to Miami in 2019 that sewed up the first pick the following April? Or doubt that things might be a little different in Washington were it not for a win in Carolina on Dec. 1 of that year?
Now, to be clear, I’m not saying any player should ever be told to go into a game and give less than his best, nor should a coach ask that of him. What I am saying is that these are things that can have long-lasting impacts on franchises—and, when an elite quarterback prospect is involved, can quite literally be franchise-changing. So if I’m a two-win team in December, and Williams and Maye live up to expectations in the fall, and losing means getting one of them, and winning means missing out, am I manufacturing a loss or two?
You’re damn right I am.
From Anthony Aveyard (@AnthonyAveyard): Are the McNairs O.K. with Nick Caserio vomiting up their future draft capital in a desperate attempt to save his job?
Anthony, I’ve seen GMs throw the future overboard to win in the here and now to hold on to their job, and I feel confident in saying that’s not what the Texans’ Nick Caserio is doing here.
In fact, I do have a theory on how this happened, if I put the puzzle pieces together on what I’ve heard the past two months and, fair warning, there is some dot-connecting here. What I know is there were bigger-picture, predraft discussions internally there on how to get both a quarterback and an edge rusher out of the two top-12 picks the Texans held. I also know that there was some feeling like the drop-off from the edge rusher they’d get at No. 12 vs. No. 2 might be greater than the drop-off at quarterback.
That’s where I think some of the buzz that they’d pass on taking a quarterback altogether with the second pick probably started. I can also say that most teams thought they’d take the edge rusher at No. 2 and then either stick at No. 12 or trade up from there to get their quarterback.
Instead, the reverse happened. The Texans took C.J. Stroud with the second pick and traded up to get Will Anderson Jr. with the third pick. Adding it up, again, it sure looks like, through the process, Caserio and his new coach, DeMeco Ryans, both of whom are close to the people at Alabama (the GM because of his relationship with Nick Saban and the coach because, well, he was a legendary player there), got serious about getting Anderson and decided drafting him meant nearly as much as getting the QB.
And note that I did say “nearly.” As we explained last week, pulling the trigger on Stroud with the pick they did have implicitly meant they had to be O.K. with not getting Anderson, if they couldn’t land the pick they didn’t have yet.
In the end, it worked out, and they got them both. Will it look smart a year from now? Five years from now? There’s a chance it won’t. But I think it happened because of the team’s affection for Anderson, not because Caserio was out there trying to save his job with a wild swing, knowing someone else might be doing the picking in 2024.
Rodgers joins Saleh, who along with GM Joe Douglas have built the Jets into a contender.
Tom Horak/USA Today network
From Tzvi Machlin (@TzviLovesSports): Are Saleh or JD on the hot seat if the Jets don't make the playoffs? Would they be fired outright?
Tzvi, yeah, I’d say it’s fair to say so.
In many ways, the availability of Aaron Rodgers provided a lifeline for Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas. Few would survive taking a quarterback with the No. 2 pick and seeing him crash and burn as spectacularly as Zach Wilson has the past two seasons. But while that happened, Saleh and Douglas managed to build a roster, and program, strong enough to attract Rodgers to New York.
Which is to say the Jets are in this gray area where team builders rarely are, where success at the other positions has bought them a second big swing at quarterback, and not even really because their boss recognizes that success so much as that second quarterback saw it as a reason to come. And I think that success combined with the quarterback creates a breakthrough for the Jets, just as Tom Brady created a breakthrough for the Buccaneers’ young core three years ago or Peyton Manning got Denver over the hump a decade ago.
If it doesn’t work? Well, then, you’re probably starting over in some areas, including finding a quarterback, and few coaches or GMs get the chance to do that after missing the playoffs in three consecutive years.
From Gambling Avenger (@GamblingAvenge1): What’s more likely if the Colts pick top 2, Williams/Maye or Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Avenger, I think Williams and Maye are good enough that you’d have to at least consider the possibility of, depending on how Anthony Richardson’s rookie season plays out, going with another first-round quarterback and trading the one that you drafted a year earlier. In fact, I think if those guys were in this year’s draft, the Bears would’ve had to have seriously thought about moving on from Justin Fields to draft one of them.
But if Richardson shows so much that you’d want to stand pat and auction the pick, my hope then would be that the team picking third badly needs a quarterback, which would enable me to extract, basically, whatever I want from that team, and still be right there to take Marvin Harrison Jr. with the third pick, and pair him with Richardson. And what a story that would be, for the son to come home and play where dad became an NFL legend.
Toney was a great developmental piece for the Chiefs, and he helped them win the Super Bowl.
Michael Chow/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK
From Moe (@Moe70781066): Are the Chiefs content with the weapons they have at WR, or are they still looking to make a trade?
Moe, Kansas City knew it had to add someone of significance at receiver this offseason, but the Chiefs were also restricted in what they could spend. So, yes, they looked into DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. The problem is one of those guys was under contract at $19.4 million and the other would command $15 million on a one-year deal, and that spend just wasn’t happening in Kansas City. At a lower rate? They’d have wound up landing one of those guys.
And to me that’s proven out with the team spending the capital it has (draft picks) rather than the capital it doesn’t (cap space) on the position, and a high-end draft pick there for the second consecutive year at that. Last year it was dealing down from one of the Tyreek Hill picks (No. 50) to take Western Michigan’s Skyy Moore (No. 54). This year, it was trading up from its second pick (No. 63) to get SMU’s Rashee Rice (No. 55).
With what the team is spending on Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, and will spend again on Jones and Mahomes soon and, to a lesser degree, what it’s sunk into its offensive line, the Chiefs have to cut corners financially somewhere. Going developmental at receiver—and Kadarius Toney is part of this equation, too—around a reasonably priced vet in Marques Valdes-Scantling is how they’re doing it (it’s happening that way at corner, too, by the way). Worked O.K. last year, I’d say.
From Noah Gray burner (@TheGoatMahomes): Are the Chiefs looking into a contract extension for L’Jarius Sneed?
Yeah, Noah Gray, I think they’ll explore it. But the success of the 2022 rookie class, which had three corners who played a lot last year, gives them flexibility—Trent McDuffie played every snap of the Super Bowl, while Jaylen Watson started and played 41% of the snaps in that game, and Joshua Williams played 36% of the snaps on defense—to let Sneed walk if need be. Sneed’s an important young piece, but the Chiefs wouldn’t be in trouble without him.
From GovnaChief (@GovnaChief): What is the floor and ceiling for Myles Murphy and what do you think he will do for the Bengals’ defense?
I think the ceiling, as the Bengals see it, is a bigger, not-quite-as-athletic Danielle Hunter, which is why they were comfortable going with a position that wasn’t necessarily a need at the bottom of the first round. Simply put, there aren’t a lot of guys who weigh in the 270s and can run 4.5 in the 40, with the production Murphy had in the ACC, available that late.
Obviously, there’s a reason he slipped—he does need development and refinement as a pass rusher. But he’s got a rep for being a really good kid and a good worker, and those types of prospects tend to develop. And the Bengals have a good environment for him to grow in, one in which he won’t be expected to be Myles Garrett from the jump.
He’ll enter a defensive end rotation that boasts Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and Joseph Ossai (who’s coming off labrum surgery), and my understanding is the hope here is that defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can get really creative with that crew in passing situations and keep them fresh with those numbers on run downs. Add that to grabbing Michigan corner DJ Turner in the second round, and I think Cincinnati had a sneaky-good draft.
From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): Any guesses on who the Chiefs might play week 1? Know the Bengals want to play week 1 against KC?
Henry, I thought the Eagles, Bills and Bengals would be the three teams that would be off the table—on the premise that the kickoff game always draws a big rating, and the league, strategically, would want to use those matchups elsewhere on the schedule. By the way, we’re tracking all the schedule release leaks here. But now we know Chiefs-Bengals is set for New Year’s Eve.
The Dolphins would’ve been one to pick out, on the presumption it wouldn’t be a divisional game (of the last 10 NFL openers, only one was an in-division matchup, and that was Bears-Packers to commemorate the league’s 100th season). Miami may be starting to move the needle nationally, and the Tyreek Hill homecoming would be a story line to goose the NFL opener. But now we know that game is set for November in January, so the league gets to avoid having the Tua Tagovailoa–concussion story line discussion.
So maybe a couple of Chiefs guys I’d talked to were right, and they’re going with the Chargers, against the previous trend of avoiding division games. Or the Broncos, with Sean Payton returning to the sidelines. And the Lions would be fun, too, even without Jameson Williams.
Howell enters offseason workouts as the starting quarterback for the Commanders.
Geoff Burke/USA Today network
From C_jackson (@sacred_fandom): Commanders looking to the future at all with the stellar QB class next year?
Fandom, I swear the Commanders are higher on Sam Howell than people realize. Are they sure he’ll be their quarterback five years from now? Of course not. But they think highly enough of him to give him a lot of leash to grow into the role of starter in the coming months, and there’s actually real reasoning behind it.
First, though he went in the fifth round in 2022, the Commanders had a second-/third-round grade on him. In fact, they weren’t even planning on taking a quarterback last year after acquiring Carson Wentz, but it got to the point on the Saturday of that draft to where Howell’s grade demanded it (before his final college season, Howell drew 6.4 and 6.7 grades from Washington scouts, which are starter grades). So they’ve seen him differently than others have for a while.
Second, the decision was made based on his ascension during his rookie year. Defensive players and receivers would talk to coaches about him when he was running the scout team and how he ran the Commanders’ offense in practice as the backup after Wentz got hurt and Taylor Heinicke became the starter (and how he’d self-correct on the fly). And then, finally, the decision was cemented with how he played against Dallas in the finale.
So it’s Howell for now. And, by the way, it’d be pretty dumb for coach Ron Rivera, GM Martin Mayhew and EVP for player personnel Marty Hurney to plan on trying to land Williams or Maye now. Because with new ownership coming in, and consecutive playoff-less seasons on their résumés, if Washington is picking first or second next year, it’s hard to imagine that the current guys will be around to see one of those quarterbacks drafted.
From Ricker81 (@D_Ricker81): Thoughts on the Giants’ offseason and their chances in the NFC going into Year 2 under Daboll? Have they closed the gap at all with the Eagles?
Ricker, I really like the Giants’ offseason. As we mentioned in the Takeaways, coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen have shown great willingness to reward players they inherited—Daniel Jones and Dexter Lawrence being the first among them—as they continue to rework the roster, and I think that’s great validation for the guys in the locker room of what they did last year.
I like how they added to Wink Martindale’s defense with Bobby Okereke in free agency and Deonte Banks in the draft, and gave Jones another weapon in Darren Waller. And John Michael Schmitz has a chance to make the offensive line better. If there’s one criticism, it might be that they still don’t have a top-end threat at receiver, but they’ll be faster this year with Parris Campbell, Jalin Hyatt and a healthy Wan’Dale Robinson.
All in all, I still think Daboll and Schoen are another offseason away from having the roster really rolling the way they want it. But the progress has been steady, and, in a pretty weak NFC, they should be right in the mix to make the playoffs again.
