What We’re Hearing on NFL Coaching Changes and Trade-Deadline Targets
From zb (@zeebra_token): Do you expect Josh Harris to make coaching changes at midseason if Washington continues to lose?
ZB, I think, at this point, the Commanders will stick with the current coaching staff through the season, then reassess. That said, and this goes for all teams, there are a few reasons why you’d make the decision in-season to pull the plug on your coach that actually make sense.
Those are …
Rivera is coaching for first-year owner Josh Harris, who purchased the Commanders for $6 billion.
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- The culture is broken: That often means you get coaches who’ve been tuned out by the locker room and veterans who are checked out, which can create an ugly environment that puts the development of young players in peril. Obviously, having an interim coach—last year’s Panthers would be an example—can provide a team with a spark that gets your young guys going and fixes that sort of problem.
- There’s an assistant on the staff you want to give an opportunity: Best examples of this, I’d say, came in 2010, with the Vikings elevating Leslie Frazier and the Cowboys elevating Jason Garrett at midseason. In both cases, the coaches had been widely seen as premier coaching candidates for a few years, and so firing their bosses gave the teams a chance to make sure they were ready to go all in on the understudies.
- You want to signal to an available coach your job will be available: This happened in 2010 with the 49ers firing Mike Singletary a week early to get in on Jim Harbaugh, with Harbaugh picking the Niners a few weeks later over the Dolphins and Michigan.
- You’re looking to start your search and you don’t want to sneak around: This would be the Broncos last year—they fired Nathaniel Hackett with two games to go, which allowed the new ownership to start digging around on its options. And, ultimately, getting an early first run at Sean Payton allowed for the team to circle back and get him after Payton assessed his options.
I think the last one might be most applicable here. The first, I don’t think, will be in play. I believe the guys will keep playing hard for Ron Rivera. The second could apply to Eric Bieniemy, but I think, with new ownership, if they’re going to fire Rivera, a full detonation of the football operation is in the offing. On the third, I’m not sure about who the big fish they’d be looking to land is. So the fourth reason would be the one, if Harris decides to do something, and I could see, if things really go in the wrong direction, why he’d do that.
But we’re not there yet.
From JP (@Lilpopester): Do you think [Lions offensive coordinator] Ben Johnson pulled out because he knew Carolina would offer him, and he saw how controlling [David] Tepper is? No chance Scott [Fitterer] and Frank [Reich] both make it to next season.
From Jason Green (@HeelofaPanther): You sure Frank keeps his job if the Panthers finish with two wins or less?
JP and Jason, I’m taking both of you at once, because I wouldn’t have even considered that Frank Reich would be in jeopardy after a single year until I saw what he said Monday about where his relationship is with Carolina owner David Tepper. Take a look.
“He wants to bring a winner to the Carolinas,” Reich said from the podium. “He wants it now. He pushes me, and pushes us, to that end. He wants to do whatever it takes, turn over every stone, churn it as much as he has to to produce winning football. So I appreciate those conversations. They’re always very challenging. He’s a super-competitive person. He’s not going to sit idly by. …
“There’s different philosophies in ownership. Some owners kind of stay away and don’t engage a whole lot. Other owners do. And his philosophy is he’s gonna engage. And, listen, it’s only been a short experience, but it’s been a really good experience. It hasn’t been fun. It’s not fun. Those meetings aren’t—I wouldn’t characterize them as fun meetings. But those meetings make me better, and I trust they make us better.”
First of all, I appreciate the honesty from Reich and a window into the unique partnerships owners have with their coaches. Second, it sounds like what I’ve heard from others who’ve worked for Tepper—he’s taken his approach to running a hedge fund into the NFL world, in keeping his thumb on those who work for him and keeping heat on everyone to perform. And Reich is correct to say there are a lot of owners who don’t operate like that (a bunch don’t even live in the cities their teams play in and aren’t around the office much).
I generally think this is a good thing. I’ve long thought it was a strength of Patriots owner Robert Kraft that he didn’t abandon his business principles (a lot of owners do) in how he runs his football operation. It took six years for Kraft to home in on that and get it right, and a lot of other successful owners have to go through that process, too, a process that Tepper is in the midst of right now.
Could Reich be collateral damage to Tepper figuring it out? I don’t think so, yet. But the fact that the coach is vocal about it means, to me, the situation down there, with an 0–5 team, is at least worth paying attention to. And by the way, no, Ben Johnson didn’t pull his name out of the Panthers’ search because he was leery of Tepper or GM Scott Fitterer. The timing simply wasn’t quite right, and Johnson had a really good situation in Detroit.
Simmons could be a potential trade target before the Oct. 31 deadline.
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From Hulkeinstein (@Hulkeinstein14): Do you expect the Eagles to make a trade before the deadline? If yes, which position is your guess?
From STOUTLAND U (@Br0therlySh0ve): What’s your take on Justin Simmons to the Eagles? Would love to bring him in a similar capacity to what C.J. Gardner-Johnson did for us last year.
Hulk and Stout, let’s start here—I’d never rule that out as long as Howie Roseman’s the GM of the Eagles.
So where would they be looking this year? It seems, to me, like the two positions of greatest need are linebacker and safety.
Justin Simmons would be, for sure, a really good fit for the Eagles, both because Simmons has Vic Fangio–system experience and because he’s a really strong locker room guy who could become a leader quickly in a locker room full of them. I don’t think the Cardinals will move Budda Baker, but he’s another name that I’m sure will be connected to the Eagles in the coming weeks.
Linebacker is a little tougher one to fill, but I like the idea of Josey Jewell in Philly—he’s another Bronco who played for Fangio, and he could steady the middle of the defense. The question there would be health (he’s already been banged up this year).
After that, running back might be the one other spot I’d look at, just because, as good as D’Andre Swift has been, he’s been injured a lot, too. Otherwise, the Eagles still have a good, balanced roster that’s capable of another deep playoff run.
From WDMPatriot (@WdmPatriot): Is there any steam on any Minnesota Vikings players being traded away?
WDM, it’s hard to say right now, but I do feel comfortable saying that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will explore everything ahead of the Oct. 31 trade deadline.
The big question with teams in that position is, simply, how many players there are on the roster that’d have value to other teams. For the Vikings, if you take foundational pieces such as Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison out of the equation, I think you have a handful that might draw outside interest.
Safety Harrison Smith, if he wanted to go chase a Super Bowl ring, could be intriguing for a contender such as the Eagles or Bengals. Edge rusher Danielle Hunter, in a contract year, I’d think would be of interest to a lot of teams. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is a really steady vet who’d fit in a lot of places. Interior lineman Dean Lowry is another one who, if I were another team, I’d look into. And the key with all those guys: Every one of them is 28 or older.
Then, of course, there’s Kirk Cousins. We can have a debate about that one. The problem is that you’d have to field a team the rest of the season and keep that team engaged for the rest of the season, and it’d be a lot harder to do that with Jaren Hall or Nick Mullens as your quarterback.
From LLCashJ (@JesseCa88568330): Do you think Kirk waives his no-trade clause (outside of Miami or San Francisco) for anything less than a three-year extension with 2.5 of it fully guaranteed?
LL, I don’t think he’ll waive it haphazardly. I also don’t think he’ll waive it for the money, because I don’t think the kinds of deals he did with the Vikings—fully guaranteed contracts—are out there for him right now. I do think if there is the chance to compete for a ring, if some contender loses its starter, that’d be something he’d probably do.
But like I said earlier, I still believe he’ll remain a Viking through 2023.
Williams is seen by many as the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL draft.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
From Vinnie (@nottakenname): Did Caleb Williams really provide a limited list of NFL teams that he would agree to play for?
Vinnie, I’m not aware of a list, and I think one thing we have to be careful about here is separating what his dad or the people around him are doing or saying from what Williams himself is doing and saying. Those can be different things, and so just because someone is making this sort of noise doesn’t mean the kid himself will in the spring.
Joe Burrow’s a pretty good example in that regard. Starting with Carson Palmer’s comments in early 2020, there was a lot of noise around the ’19 Heisman winner about refusing to play in Cincinnati. But none of it was coming for Burrow himself, and, it turns out, Burrow really liked the idea of being the change agent for a struggling franchise. It’s entirely possible that, deep down, Williams feels that way.
I’d also forget about the dumb idea that he’d stay in school for an extra year to avoid playing for the team with the first pick. In this day and age, it’d make more sense to be Eli Manning (and force a trade) than Peyton Manning (and wait a year). The bottom line is the team with the first pick is always going to be a bad team. And in any case, Williams would want to start the clock on becoming eligible for his second contract as a pro (after his third NFL season), a contract that, by 2027, could be worth $60 million or $70 million per year.
From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Are there any early concerns for the Colts with the long-term career of Anthony Richardson?
Ronnie, there’s definitely the lingering question on the amount of damage he’s absorbing. He’s started four NFL games, and had to come out of all of them because he was banged up. And this is not new. As a redshirt freshman at Florida in 2021, before he was even a starter, he suffered a concussion, missed time with a hamstring injury and had knee pain eventually requiring surgery. After losing five games to injury, he was able to stay healthy in ’22, but the accumulation of all this was a concern for teams.
That concern exists for the Colts, and it’s clear that Indy is trying to be judicious with Richardson in the run game as a result—after averaging 8.6 carries per game his final year with the Gators, he’s carried it only 6.3 times per game through four NFL games.
That said, there’s a ton to like so far, both in who Indy’s got as a player and person. And I know Shane Steichen and his staff absolutely feel like they got this one right. So this boils down to doing the best they can to leverage Richardson’s otherworldly athletic gifts, while protecting their asset.
From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): The Broncos defense has given up a TON of yards in the past four games. Will Vance Joseph still be their defensive coordinator at the end of the season?
Matt, thus far, the numbers aren’t good.
We can run through them, if you’d like. The Broncos rank 32nd in total defense, 32nd in scoring defense, 32nd in yards allowed per play, 32nd in both run defense and yards allowed per carry, 29th in pass defense, 32nd in yards allowed per pass play and 30th in first downs allowed per game. Even with a relatively small sample size, that’s bad.
And while they did face the Dolphins (first in total offense and scoring offense) and that game skewed numbers, the Broncos’ other four games were against teams ranking 14th, 18th, 27th and 29th in total offense and 12th, 17th, 24th and 29th in scoring offense. So, there’s no real excuse for Vance Joseph to lean on.
With that established, Joseph’s reputation in the league is really good, and a bad start shouldn’t lead to sweeping judgments. Remember, this is a Broncos team that traded Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, and has struck out on bringing in vets to replace them since. Joseph has a few solid pieces in the secondary, and obviously Pat Surtain II is pretty special, but it’s not like he’s scheming with a stacked deck.
If Denver’s defense is bad all year, then I think we can have the conversation about Joseph’s job status, especially since he wasn’t Payton’s first choice (that was Fangio). But for now, I’ll tell you to be patient.
From Fred Saunders (@TheFredzilla): Why won’t people address how terrible the Broncos defense is and the staff Sean Payton put together and stop the hyperfocus on Russ?
Fred, I already sort of answered this, but you’re right. For the most part, Russell Wilson’s been fine, and that much jumped out at me again when I talked with Robert Saleh after his Jets beat the Broncos on Sunday.
Saleh said, “Russell was doing such a great job in the first half, utilizing his feet, utilizing the screen game and it was just one of those things that it was if we could just … we felt like if we could put to bed the screen game and the quarterback scrambles, we’d be all right.” And doing that, as Saleh continued, in the second half constituted, in his mind, playing “lights out” on defense. And that’s even with Wilson leading a seven-play, 75-yard fourth-quarter drive to give the Broncos a shot at the wire.
Is Wilson perfect now? Of course not. He’s not an elite quarterback, and hasn’t been in a few years. But the stuff Saleh said about him—and remember, Saleh was with Wilson in Seattle at the beginning—no one was saying last year. That’s because Wilson is, again, a viable quarterback, even on a pretty imperfect team.
Which only highlights how serious the issues elsewhere in Denver are at this point.
It might be worth the Bills making a call on the Vikings' Jordan Hicks to replace Matt Milano.
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
From CorruptedClown (@Heyyooo000): Who do the Bills target before the trade deadline? Do we need a few players on the defensive side (CB/LB/D-line)?
Corrupted, the most logical acquisition would’ve been acquiring veteran Shaq Thompson, who played for Sean McDermott for two years in Carolina, but Thompson broke his leg and is out for the year.
But that underscores the larger point for me, which is finding an off-ball linebacker to play next to promising second-year man Terrel Bernard.
For those who don’t know, Corrupted’s needs list is tied to injuries to linebacker Matt Milano, defensive lineman DaQuan Jones and corner Tre’Davious White. It’ll be tough for Buffalo to deal with each of those. But I feel better about the Bills’ depth at defensive tackle and corner than at linebacker, where, for now, they’re going to have to hope that third-round rookie Dorian Williams develops quickly. And that’s without mentioning the playmaking element that Milano’s absence will eliminate.
At this point, I’d say it’s worth making a call to the Vikings on Hicks and the Broncos on Jewell and, if you’re looking for a McDermott-adjacent player, maybe the Commanders on Cody Barton (who’s playing for McDermott’s old boss in D.C.). All would help stabilize the Bills at a pretty important spot in that scheme.
From Ryan Cox (@MrRyanCox): Do you anticipate an active trade deadline relative to the past couple of years?
Ryan, my radar is certainly up for that. I think after two more Sundays, we’ll get a clearer picture of who’s falling out of the race. And at that point, I do wonder whether we’ll get subtle hints in, ahem, roster management on the chase for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye heating up.
This is where I think an owner or two might get involved, armed with information from their analytics department, and direct some, uh, creativity in handling the remainder of the year.
From Nate in Appleton (@NateAndree): Is Kirk Cousins starting next year for a team or does this season make him QB2?
Nate, I think Kirk Cousins will end up in a bridge quarterback role for someone next year.
He’s become pretty underappreciated despite being a really good player. Playing for a retooling team—with a roster in flux—Cousins is statistically the NFL’s seventh-best quarterback, posting a passer rating of 101.7 with 1,498 yards, 13 touchdown passes and four picks through five games. He’s had a passer rating well above 90 in each of his eight seasons as a starter (previous to this one) and threw for more than 4,000 yards in seven of those years.
Now, he’ll be 36 on opening day in 2024. So he’ll be no one’s quarterback of the future like he was for the Vikings when he signed with Minnesota at the age of 29. But if you’re planning on drafting and sitting a quarterback next year, you could do a whole lot worse than having Cousins running your team.
Dobbs has earned himself a lot of money over the past month.
Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
From Nikolai (@mothernachure): Has Josh Dobbs earned himself a role as a “plus” backup QB going forward, whether it’s Arizona or elsewhere?
Nikolai, Joshua Dobbs has earned himself a lot of money over the past month—because, to me, he’s comfortably entered Josh McCown territory.
First and foremost, that means he’s a good guy, and a smart player, and the type of tone-setter you’d want to have your young quarterback around. The perfect makeup for a backup-bridge quarterback that’d appeal to a team planning to draft one.
Second, he’s shown the ability to—at the very least—spot start. That was what McCown did in 2013 after the Bears pulled him off the couch and out of retirement a couple of times. And, finally, that year he started five games for the team and proved he could pinch-hit if need be. The results from there: McCown played seven more years in the league, earning nearly $35 million from ’14 to ’20.
So, yes, this ride will eventually end for Dobbs, and I don’t know that he’ll get a shot to start again on a full-time basis such as the one he’s getting now in Arizona. But he is getting a long-term financial benefit from it that’s going to be pretty damn sweet.
From The Coach (@ssomers55): What is the reason for the Steelers lack of offense? Have these great WR weapons and solid RB and TE but is it [OC Matt] Canada or [QB Kenny] Pickett that is the issue?
Coach, I’m planning on digging a little deeper into this in the coming weeks. But for now, I will say there were some encouraging signs at the end of the Ravens game. Diontae Johnson’s return should help, too, as would Broderick Jones emerging at left tackle (he made his first start against Baltimore). And Pickett and George Pickens gave everyone a little glimpse into where they could take things after a bit of a slow start to the season for both.
At the same time, I think it’s fair to look at the post–Todd Haley Steelers and question the direction of the offensive coaching. Over Haley’s final four seasons in Pittsburgh, the team ranked seventh, fourth, 10th and eighth in scoring and second, third, seventh and third in total offense. They were top 10 in both categories again in OC Randy Fichner’s first year, in 2018.
In the four full seasons since, they’ve been 27th, 12th, 21st and 26th in scoring, and 30th, 24th, 23rd and 23rd in total offense. Now, obviously, the quarterback spot has been in flux during that time, so that’s a factor. But statistically, that’s the worst stretch of offensive football that Pittsburgh’s had since Chuck Noll arrived in 1969. And this year’s start—29th in scoring and 30th in yards—hasn’t been very encouraging.
In there, you had three years of Fichner and two years of Canada, with neither of those guys reminding anyone of Haley or Bruce Arians, Mike Tomlin’s first two offensive coordinators in Pittsburgh. And, looking at the personnel, like you said, it’s hard not to point to the coaching as the difference here.
From Don Jr.’s Habit (@SuckItElon): If the Colts are still in the hunt for the division after Richardson returns (probably after their bye), would you see them as a real threat to make a playoff push? If so, is Steichen a lock for Coach of the Year?
Yes, I would. They’re better than people think. Remember, before last year’s meltdown, that team went to the playoffs three times in four years under Reich. And Shaq Leonard, DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson and now Jonathan Taylor again didn’t forget how to play football. Plus, the Colts play in the AFC South, so it’s not like they’re climbing Mount Everest in their chase to make it into the playoffs.
