NFL Week 7 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including Sunday night’s showdown between the Dolphins and Eagles.

Author:
Kyle Wood and Matt Verderame
Publish date:
Oct 19, 2023

In this story:

The NFL Week 7 schedule is here, and it has some quality games to watch.

On Sunday night, the Eagles host the Dolphins in a matchup of 5–1 teams. Philadelphia is coming off a shocking loss to the Jets, in which quarterback Jalen Hurts tossed three interceptions. Meanwhile, Miami handled the Panthers after falling behind 14–0, as receiver Tyreek Hill continues his quest to become the first receiver ever to have 2,000 yards.

Elsewhere around the docket, the Chiefs host the Chargers in a key AFC West battle. At 5–1, Kansas City is already 2.5 games ahead of the third-place Bolts, and a win at Arrowhead Stadium would all but relegate Los Angeles to the wild card chase. However, a victory for Justin Herbert and Co. would put the Chargers within shouting distance.

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Below, our staff looks at those games and three others, with picks and analysis to follow.

1. Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill — Tyreek Hill is on pace to smash the NFL’s record for single-season receiving yards.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports

Sunday night’s game between Miami and Philadelphia profiles as a possible Super Bowl preview. The spread is tight and the over/under is high for this meeting between the Dolphins and Eagles, two of the NFL’s five remaining one-loss teams.

Miami imposed its will on Carolina in a 42–21 win last week. Tua Tagovailoa and Co. easily erased a 14-0 deficit as Raheem Mostert added three more touchdowns to his league-leading tally. The Dolphins’ offense remains the gold standard with seemingly untouchable averages of 37.2 points and almost 500 yards per game.

Philadelphia’s passing defense has been porous, which is cause for concern against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the matchup to watch will be Miami’s NFL-best rushing offense against the No. 2 run defense. The Dolphins average over 181 yards per game on the ground and 6.5 yards per carry while the Eagles have held their opponents to 65.8 yards on average and less than four yards a pop.

Jalen Hurts last week had his worst performance of the season in Philly’s first loss. He tossed three interceptions in a 20–14 defeat to the Jets. Luckily for him, Miami is tied for the fewest interceptions in the league (two) and its bottom-10 defense has largely been overshadowed by its record-setting offense. D’Andre Swift might find more success on the ground, depending on Lane Johnson’s status, and DeVonta Smith should have a resurgent game against this secondary, though he also finds himself on the injury report.

As good as the Dolphins have been, they’ve struggled on the road relative to their sheer dominance at home while the Eagles have won 12 out of 13 at Lincoln Financial Field with Hurts healthy. Here’s hoping this game of the week lives up to its billing.

Verderame’s pick: Eagles -2.5, Over 51.5 (Philadelphia 30, Miami 24)
Manzano’s pick: Dolphins +2.5, Under 51.5 (Miami 27, Philadelphia 23)
Wood’s pick: Dolphins +2.5, Under 51.5 (Miami 27, Philadelphia 24)

2. Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson — Against a strong Lions run defense, Lamar Jackson will need to make things happen in the passing game.
David Richard/USA TODAY Sports

You might remember the last meeting between Detroit and Baltimore for Justin Tucker’s record-setting, game-winning, 66-yard field goal as time expired. These Lions are not the same team that lost that day back in 2021. They head to Maryland with a 5–1 record, riding a four-game winning streak as one of the most complete teams in the league.

The Ravens have been more up and down so far. They beat the Titans 24–16 in London last week but they had a pair of bad losses to the Steelers on the road and in overtime against the Colts the last time they were at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 3. Baltimore only has two offensive touchdowns in the last two weeks. The onus is on Lamar Jackson to beat Detroit, which boasts the NFL’s best run defense, through the air.

Jared Goff is doing his best to put his shortcomings on the road to rest. With a 20–6 win in Tampa last week, he improved to 3–0 in away games on the year. He also threw for a season-high 353 yards as the rushing attack floundered. With David Montgomery out and Jahmyr Gibbs banged up, Goff will likely have to air the ball out often against the Ravens, the No. 2 pass defense in the league.

Both teams have been kind to bettors with a combined 9–3 record against the spread. Interestingly, the under has hit in all but one of Baltimore’s games while the Lions have been involved in more high-scoring contests. On the road against a stout defense, this is the lowest over/under of the season for Detroit and just its second time as an underdog.

Verderame’s pick: Lions +2.5, Over 42.5 (Detroit 31, Baltimore 23)
Manzano’s pick: Lions +2.5, Over 42.5 (Detroit 28, Baltimore 20)
Wood’s pick: Ravens -2.5, Over 42.5 (Baltimore 23, Detroit 20)

3. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball against the Broncos during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. — Travis Kelce and Chiefs offense have been hard to stop.
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers have played the Chiefs tight ever since Justin Herbert was drafted but close won’t cut it for L.A. on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Bolts fell to 2–3 with a 20–17 loss to the visiting Cowboys on Monday. Now they’re on the road against their division rival and the hottest team in the NFL.

Kansas City has won five in a row overall and its last three against Los Angeles. The Chiefs’ defense has been at the forefront of their success thus far. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are still shredding opposing secondaries and second-year back Isiah Pacheco has found success on the ground, but their defense allows just 14.7 points per game, second only to the 49ers, and is a top-10 unit against the pass.

Slowing down Herbert and the Chargers is still a tall task, though Dallas was able to do so on Monday. Austin Ekeler was inefficient in his return from injury and Herbert was uncharacteristically off. L.A. is still a top-10 offense by points (25.4, a few spots ahead of K.C.) and passing yards (259) per game.

Both games last season were decided by a field goal and Herbert has won in Kansas City before. However, the Chiefs — one of the worst teams in the NFL against the spread last season — have performed better against the number lately with four covers in five weeks. They also had a mini-bye to get ready for the Chargers after they played on Thursday Night Football last week.

Verderame’s pick: Chiefs -5.5, Under 48.5 (Kansas City 27, Los Angeles 20)
Manzano’s pick: Chargers +5.5, Under 48.5 (Kansas City 24, Los Angeles 20)
Wood’s pick: Chiefs -5.5, Under 48.5 (Kansas City 27, Los Angeles 21

4. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams

Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett — Kenny Pickett has struggled in recent weeks, but he gets a key weapon back Sunday.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles are both quietly in the thick of things in their respective conferences. In spite of a 31-point deficit for the season, the Steelers have clawed their way to 3–2 heading into a winnable game at SoFi Stadium, where the Rams scored their first home win of the year last week against the Cardinals.

The potential return of receiver Diontae Johnson could breathe some life into an offense that’s 30th in the NFL in scoring average (15.8 points per game). He left the season opener early with a hamstring injury that sent him to injured reserve and his absence promoted George Pickens to Kenny Pickett’s No. 1 option. The second-year quarterback has struggled mightily, completing less than 60% of his passes, and a paltry run game hasn’t done him any favors. Even the defense has taken a step back, though it did hold the Ravens to one touchdown in Week 5.

L.A.’s defense might not stack up to past iterations but it’s holding opponents to just 19.5 points per game so far. With that as a baseline, the offense is doing more than enough to get by. Matthew Stafford is currently third in passing yards, Puka Nacua is fourth in receiving yards and Cooper Kupp has gone over 100 yards in both games since his return. Kyren Williams is up to fourth in the league in rushing after adding 158 to his tally last week but he’s expected to be sidelined for a few weeks, a major blow to a respectable Rams running game.

One number to know for this matchup is that Pittsburgh is 12–4 under Mike Tomlin the week after a bye. The Steelers also ripped off a 7–2 record following their bye week last year after a 2–6 start, so expect adjustments to be made.

Verderame’s pick: Rams -3.5, Under 42.5 (Los Angeles 24, Pittsburgh 18)
Manzano’s pick: Steelers +3.5, Under 42.5 (Los Angeles 23, Pittsburgh 20)
Wood’s pick: Steelers +3.5, Over 42.5 (Pittsburgh 23, Los Angeles 20)

5. San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was 19-of-29 for 220 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers, his first regular season game since suffering an arm injury against the Eagles in the NFC championship. — Brock Purdy looks to bouince back after suffering his first regular-season loss as a pro last week.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers are coming off their first loss of the season, a 19–17 letdown in Cleveland at the hands of PJ Walker. The Browns’ elite defense stifled San Francisco, which lost both Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffrey (oblique, rib) to injuries. Even if neither star is able to suit up Monday in Minnesota, the Vikings’ defense doesn’t present the same degree of difficulty that Jim Schwartz’s defense did.

Last week was Brock Purdy’s first regular-season loss of his career. He threw his first interception of the year, matched a season-high three sacks and completed less than half of his pass attempts. Purdy might be without two of his top weapons and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) is listed as day-to-day. That puts more pressure on the stable of running backs behind McCaffrey to keep one of the league’s best running games afloat and, of course, on the 49ers’ defense, which allows the fewest points per game (14.5) in the NFL.

The Vikings beat the Bears 19–13 last week in their first full game without the injured Justin Jefferson. It was an ugly showing for the offense overall as Kirk Cousins threw for fewer than 200 yards for the first time this season and the running game averaged just 2.1 yards per carry. That poor outing came against a Chicago defense that’s been one of the worst in the league this season, so it makes sense why Minnesota’s implied point total against San Francisco is below 20.

The 49ers might be banged up at key positions heading into this matchup, but the extra day before Monday’s game will do them good against a Vikings team that is winless at home this season.

Verderame’s pick: 49ers -6.5, Over 43.5 (San Francisco 29, Minnesota 20)
Manzano’s pick: 49ers -6.5, Over 43.5 (San Francisco 31, Minnesota 20)
Wood’s pick: 49ers -6.5, Under 43.5 (San Francisco 27, Minnesota 16)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: I’m done with the Chargers until they fire Brandon Staley. Don’t read this as an excuse for Justin Herbert, but Staley is the main problem. The defense constantly gives up big yardage and crucial points despite his supposed acumen on that side of the ball. Unless Kansas City spends three hours beating itself at Arrowhead Stadium this week, the Chiefs will both win, cover and finish the competitive phase of the AFC West race before we get to Halloween.

Manzano: I’ve been critical of the Steelers for most of the season, but they’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Rams, who will likely be without second-year running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been at its best with a balanced attack, but expect them to do enough through the air with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in a game that will probably come down to the wire.

Wood: Aside from the Chargers, I like the other four road teams to cover the spread. I picked the Dolphins to keep things close a few weeks ago in Buffalo and that didn’t turn out, but I think they’ll have more success Sunday in Philadelphia. I’m expecting Tomlin to have the Steelers prepared to pull an upset on the road over the Rams coming out of the bye week and I think the 49ers bounce back in a big way against the Vikings after their first defeat.

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