NFL Week 8 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

Our experts have ATS and over/under picks for the five biggest games of the week, including a critical interconference game and the battle for New York.

Author:
Kyle Wood and Gilberto Manzano
Publish date:
Oct 26, 2023

In this story:

The way the 49ers and Jaguars have played the past few weeks are examples of why we love the unpredictability of the NFL.

Many were quick to crown the 49ers as the best team in the NFL. Now they’re on a two-game losing streak and many are questioning whether Brock Purdy is the right quarterback. But Purdy might not play Sunday vs. the Bengals because he was placed in the concussion protocol. If that’s the case, the 49ers are going to need their defense to step up after a poor performance in Minnesota.

The Jaguars got their funk out of the way early in the season after ugly losses to the Chiefs and Texans. I’m sure not many football pundits considered them Super Bowl contenders during the two-game losing streak. But now the Jaguars are putting their impressive four-game winning streak on the line in Pittsburgh for one of the most intriguing games of Week 8.

Speaking about the unexpected, not many saw the Browns being 4–2, despite not having a healthy Deshaun Watson for nearly a month. The Browns will be tested this week with a road matchup against the Seahawks.

Below, our staff looks at these three games and two others, with picks and analysis to follow.

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1. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett — Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett got a key weapon back last week and had one of his best games of the season.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville and Pittsburgh would play in the wild card round if the playoffs began this week. The Jaguars, with a plus-27 point differential and a healthy lead in the AFC South, have been much more dominant than the Steelers, who have been outscored by 24 points and trail the Ravens in the AFC North. But Mike Tomlin’s team is 4–0 in one-score games and the oddsmakers like this contest to be another close one.

Only Kansas City has a longer active win streak than Jacksonville, which hasn’t lost in over a month. The Jaguars beat the Saints, 31–24, on Thursday Night Football last week to improve to 2–0 in true road games and 4–0 away from EverBank Stadium. Travis Etienne Jr. logged his third game in a row with two rushing touchdowns and the defense helped out Trevor Lawrence with a pick-six.

Pittsburgh beat the Rams, 24–17, in Los Angeles last week coming out of the bye. With Diontae Johnson back from injured reserve, Kenny Pickett had one of his best games of the season while the defense pressured Matthew Stafford and kept Cooper Kupp in check. Since an embarrassing blowout to the 49ers in Week 1, the Steelers upset both the Browns and Ravens at home.

Both teams have been good to bet on this season in the positions they’ll be in Sunday: The Jaguars are 3–1 against the spread as a favorite and Pittsburgh is 4–1 as an underdog. Tomlin has historically delivered as an underdog and Jacksonville is banged up at a few key positions with its bye one week away.

Verderame’s pick: Jaguars -2.5, Under 41.5 (Jacksonville 20, Pittsburgh 16)
Manzano’s pick: Steelers +2.5, Over 41.5 (Pittsburgh 23, Jacksonville 21)
Wood’s pick: Steelers +2.5, Over 41.5 (Pittsburgh 24, Jacksonville 23)

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey — Especially if Brock Purdy is out, the 49ers will rely heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey Sunday.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a bye, Cincinnati catches San Francisco at an ideal time. After a 22–17 loss to the Vikings on Monday Night Football, the 49ers have now dropped two in a row and are on short rest as they head back to the Bay. A once unstoppable offense has been stifled in back-to-back weeks — and now Brock Purdy is unlikely to play Sunday after entering concussion protocol.

The Bengals, winners of two in a row and three of their last four, just had their bye week for Joe Burrow and Co. to rest up after a strange start to the season. Cincinnati ranks bottom five in scoring average (16.7 points per game) and bottom 10 in both rushing and passing yards per game. It’s defense has performed better relative to its offense, but not enough to entirely overcome those woes, which is why the Bengals are bringing up the rear in the AFC North with a .500 record.

San Francisco struggled against a tough Cleveland defense in less than ideal weather two weeks ago, and those issues persisted Monday in a dome against Minnesota when one of the NFL’s best rushing offenses was limited to three yards per carry. Coach Kyle Shanahan is likely to lean even heavier on Christian McCaffrey if it’s Sam Darnold under center instead of Purdy. Despite modest point totals, one of the league’s top defenses was also exposed in back-to-back weeks, first when it allowed 160 rushing yards to the Browns and then 378 yards through the air against the Vikings.

This is the 49ers’ first two-game losing streak in a year — they haven’t lost three in a row since early 2021. Similarly, Cincinnati has its back against the wall as it’s up against the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. That slow start left little room for error.

Verderame’s pick: 49ers -3.5, Under 43.5 (San Francisco 23, Cincinnati 17)
Manzano’s pick: Bengals +3.5, Under 43.5 (San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 17)
Wood’s pick: 49ers -3.5, Under 43.5 (San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16)

3. Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks

Browns defensive end Myles Garrett walks off the field following a win. — Myles Garrett is coming off a monster game in the Browns’ Week 7 win over the Colts.
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports

Deshaun Watson will not be under center for Cleveland on Sunday in Seattle. After missing games against the Ravens and 49ers, he returned last week against the Colts only to exit early — he did not return after clearing concussion protocol. Watson was replaced by PJ Walker, who led the team to another win and will be out there once again this week.

The Seahawks have the same record as the Browns through seven weeks, without as much controversy. Led by Geno Smith, the offense has been sound. DK Metcalf was sidelined for a 20–10 win over the Cardinals last week and it wasn’t Tyler Lockett who stepped up; rather rookies Jake Bobo and Jaxon Smith-Njigba both had big days and Kenneth Walker III turned in his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season. Seattle’s offense has slowed its torrid pace quite a bit after scoring 37 points in back-to-back games in September, but its defense has surrendered just 26 points over its last three games.

Cleveland’s ground game was the difference in its wins over the 49ers and Colts the last two weeks as Walker threw for under 200 yards in each game and three total interceptions. Jerome Ford has been the leading rusher since Nick Chubb was lost for the season but now he’s dealing with an ankle injury that could sideline him this week. That means Kareem Hunt, who scored the game-winning touchdown against Indianapolis, will likely shoulder the brunt of the work against a stingy run defense.

Without Watson and likely Ford, the onus is on the defense, specifically Myles Garrett, to keep this game tight. The low point total indicates Cleveland might be able to do just that in a hostile environment.

Verderame’s pick: Seahawks -3.5, Over 39.5 (Seattle 27, Cleveland 16)
Manzano’s pick: Seahawks -3.5, Over 39.5 (Seattle 24, Cleveland 20)
Wood’s pick: Seahawks -3.5, Over 39.5 (Seattle 23, Cleveland 17)

4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott during Week 6 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers — Dak Prescott is coming off a strong performance two weeks ago against the Chargers.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Dallas had a bye week to regroup after a four-week stretch that included an eight-point loss to the Cardinals (which remains their only win this season), a 35-point win over the Patriots, a 32-point loss versus the 49ers and a three-point victory against the Chargers. The Cowboys have been up and down for a month now, but that primetime victory in L.A. may have righted the ship.

The Rams, similarly, have traded wins and losses for the past month. Most recently, they lost to the Steelers, 24–17, in a game where Kupp was largely contained. The running game stayed afloat without Kyren Williams, but Stafford completed less than half of his pass attempts against a Pittsburgh secondary that teams have been able to throw on this year. Dallas’ defense presents a much tougher challenge.

The Cowboys constantly pressured Justin Herbert last time out while Dak Prescott rebounded in a big way from his three-interception game against San Francisco. He scored a rushing touchdown, did not commit a turnover and connected with CeeDee Lamb all seven times he targeted his top receiver. Tony Pollard has struggled on the ground in the last two games but L.A. is a team he may be able to get going against.

Dallas has had some struggles on the road, but this team has a plus-55 point differential in two games at AT&T Stadium. For their part, the Rams are 2–1 on the road with an upset over the Seahawks on their resume.

Verderame’s pick: Rams +6.5, Under 44.5 (Dallas 24, Los Angeles 20)
Manzano’s pick: Cowboys -6.5, Over 44.5 (Dallas 30, Los Angeles 20)
Wood’s pick: Rams +6.5, Under 44.5 (Dallas 23, Los Angeles 17)

5. New York Jets vs. New York Giants

New York Jets running back Breece Hall — Jets running back Breece Hall has been tough to bring down in recent weeks.
Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports

Ah, the Battle for New York. First team to 20 wins?

The Giants’ defense has made serious strides over the last two weeks, holding the Bills to 14 in a loss and the Commanders to seven in a win. The Jets’ defense continues to be elite as it powered the team to a 20–14 win over the Eagles two weeks ago without its top two cornerbacks. And after losses by the Bills and Dolphins last week, Robert Saleh’s team comes out of the bye in striking distance in the AFC East.

As good as these defenses have been, points are tough to come by for both teams. The Giants average an NFL-worst 12.2 points per game and have started Tyrod Taylor the last two games with Daniel Jones out. The Jets are quite a bit better in that department with an average of 18.8 points, but that figure still ranks in the bottom half of the league. Second-year back Breece Hall has started to come on in the last few games, which is a big development for an offense that averages the fewest passing yards in the NFL.

This game is tied for the lowest over/under of the week and all but one Giants game this season has hit the under. Overs have been more common for the Jets, who have performed admirably against the spread.

Verderame’s pick: Jets -2.5, Under 36.5 (NY Jets 22, NY Giants 10)
Manzano’s pick: Jets -2.5, Under 36.5 (NY Jets 20, NY Giants 13)
Wood’s pick: Jets -2.5, Under 36.5 (NY Jets 19, NY Giants 13)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: We’re going to find out plenty about the Cowboys this week. They’re at home, coming off a bye and trying to stay close to the Eagles in the NFC East. If they lose to the 3–4 Rams, there are some serious issues. Dallas needs to show it can get rolling by handling Los Angeles in its own building, getting itself to 5–2 in the process.

Manzano: After getting carved up by Kirk Cousins, expect the 49ers’ defense to have a better performance at home in a showdown against the Bengals. Perhaps San Francisco was half asleep in road games vs. the Browns and Vikings. It’s tough seeing a team that talented lose three consecutive games even without Purdy. The Jaguars have been surging with a four-game winning streak in 19 days with stops in London, Jacksonville and New Orleans. Now the Jaguars have to play in Pittsburgh. They might be headed for a letdown game against the Steelers.

Wood: This week feels like an inflection point for plenty of teams. The Steelers have a shot to legitimize their strong start while the Jaguars can solidify their spot in the AFC’s upper class. The Bengals are in need of a win, but so are the 49ers, who are looking to avoid a third straight loss. The New York teams are fighting for different things. A Jets win keeps them competitive in the AFC East and a Giants victory could turn things around with an easier schedule on the horizon. Jets-Giants aside, I’m backing the home teams this Sunday.

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