NFL Trade Deadline: Injuries Play Key Role in Identifying Sellers
Before the season, we imagined a kind of market-shattering selloff for lottery tickets in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. The reality, as we noted in our companion piece, is far more complicated. There aren’t a ton of teams that should be viewing this as a realistic possibility. This is, like most years, less of a vehicle to attain a higher draft status and more of an exercise in getting the most capital out of assets who no longer add significant value to the team as presently constructed.
Based on the results of Sunday’s games, here’s a look at who should be in the mix as a seller before Halloween’s trade deadline.
Minnesota Vikings
Why they should sell: In Minnesota’s 24–10 win over the Packers, Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles. The Vikings have done an admirable job clawing back to .500, but have no realistic chance of making a postseason run without a top-12 option under center. Minnesota probably should have been in rebuilding mode last year, but is now hovering in that familiar Mike Zimmer-ian .500 territory, which was the kind of comfortable hell the team wanted to break out of by hiring Kevin O’Connell in the first place. The Vikings have additional fourth- and fifth-round picks in the 2024 draft. A good trade deadline would allow the team more flexibility in navigating up or down for difference-making talent.
Cousins suffered a torn Achilles tendon during Sunday’s 24–10 win over the Packers.
Matt Ludtke/AP
Who they should sell: Danielle Hunter is the name we have heard thrown around most aggressively, though I am also interested in Harrison Phillips. Phillips is still a solid run defender, but at 29 and as a 2025 pending free agent, he is less a part of the future than a part of a potential playoff team’s fortification process. A former third-round pick of the Bills, he would be infinitely more valuable to Sean McDermott than Brian Flores at the moment.
New England Patriots
Why they should sell: Despite bizarre wins over the Jets and the Bills, New England’s season is quickly spiraling. The Patriots are one team that makes absolute sense as a strategic tanking candidate. Bill Belichick has always taken a more calculated, long-term view of his roster, even if he is always invested in exposing his opponents’ weaknesses on a week-to-week basis. While there won’t be a ton of interest in a roster that doesn’t feature much long-term upside, the Patriots do have a good number of established role players who could be late-round fliers for competitive clubs.
Who they should sell: Jalen Mills, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki…where do we begin? I think Josh Uche, the former second-round pick, is probably the most valuable asset. When unleashed, Uche has notable bendability and versatility to his game. He can instantly upgrade a defense and, having come from a complex system, likely won’t struggle with the quick transition to a new scheme.
New York Giants
Why they should sell: The Giants fell to 2–6 after an overtime loss to the Jets on Sunday in which third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito had to take meaningful snaps. With a small number of teams running away with the conference, the Giants need to take the long view here, which I believe they wanted to do the year prior before getting off to an unexpectedly hot start. The Giants need…so much. But, the roster is strong at certain positions. Like the Colts, the Giants have to make a decision about how competitive they can be and how soon.
Who they should sell: Leonard Williams, Adoree’ Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida and Darren Waller. The Giants have some players who could be valuable in the right hands, but almost completely useless—and, actually, deleterious to the Giants’ overall cap health—in their current situation. If the Giants stand pat at the trade deadline and do nothing to pad their existing draft stockpile, the current front office will be setting the team back significantly. Previous general manager Dave Gettleman was unwilling to trade back to generate more draft capital. Joe Schoen can’t make the same mistake.
Arizona Cardinals
Why they should sell: The Cardinals (1–7) have lost four consecutive games, and have absolutely no reason for this team to rush Kyler Murray back on the field. There is also absolutely no reason for this team to try and add at the trade deadline. Arizona is where we thought it would be, but with the benefit of having played most of its opponents close. The future is bright, along with the Cardinals’ current pick setup.
Who they should sell: Zach Ertz, Marquise Brown, Budda Baker and James Conner. While I know Jonathan Gannon wants to keep some foundational pieces for the 2024 roster and beyond, Arizona should be all in on investing for the future built with a strong core of rookie contracts.
Denver Broncos
Why they should sell: The Broncos (3–5) stunned the Chiefs on Sunday, delivering Sean Payton’s first signature win of his Denver tenure. While I can certainly see a world where Denver makes a push now that Russell Wilson is humming—or, more accurately, maybe Payton sees this world—I think this team needs draft capital more than anything. I think the Broncos know that having only seven picks, and four of them being fifth- or seventh-rounders is not going to serve them well in the near term.
Who they should sell: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Patrick Surtain II, Justin Simmons, Garett Bolles and Samaje Perine. Surtain’s name on the list will raise some eyebrows, but the Jalen Ramsey trade from the Jaguars to the Rams in 2019 yielded a pair of first-round picks. Imagine what Denver could do with multiple first-round picks in each of the next two years. They can’t just be henpecking when it comes to maximizing value. Also, I would call the Bengals and see if they would want their blocking and third-down specialist back now that the Bengals are hot again.
Tennessee Titans
Why they should sell: The Titans (3–4) won a stunner over the Falcons on Sunday. While it would seem like the emergence of a potential star in Will Levis is reason to invest, perhaps the opposite is true, giving Tennessee quite a fascinating dilemma. I’m not sure how much interest DeAndre Hopkins garners, given what his market looked like not too long ago. But there is little doubt he can still play. Does Tennessee keep him on the roster to hand-hold Levis as he learns the ropes, much like how Hopkins eased Deshaun Watson’s transition to the NFL? Or do the Titans take whatever draft capital they can get and reinvest in a team that can better reflect Levis?
Who they should sell: Ryan Tannehill if he’s healthy. Derrick Henry if he’s wanted. And Kristian Fulton could be one of those players who simply needs a change of scenery to succeed. There could be some teams who targeted him in the 2020 draft, or who heavily scouted that ’19 LSU team, that might have an affinity for Fulton or a better understanding of his skill set. As for Tannehill, who knows what he is worth. But how silly would a surprise contender feel with no backup plan at the quarterback position?
Indianapolis is better off setting its sights on the future after Anthony Richardson’s injury.
Jenna Watson/IndyStar/USA TODAY NETWORK
Indianapolis Colts
Why they should sell: The Colts have now lost three straight, but it feels like Shane Steichen can field a competitive team with the staff at a nearby Arby’s. Why not get what the team can for some of its aging stars and pivot toward a more sensible version of the roster built more suitably around Anthony Richardson?
Who they should sell: Grover Stewart is up next year and is still an elite run defender who could provide massive upside for a contending team. He will also command a serious price tag a year from now. Kenny Moore turns 29 before the start of the 2024 season and is also a pending free agent. In ’25, DeForest Buckner, who turns 30 this spring, is also up. Ryan Kelly, who is turning 31 this coming spring, is a ’25 free agent. Teams need…all of this. And while the Colts do as well, I think they should consider the long-term view. They could field a division-winning roster next year with a healthy Richardson. No doubt. Or, they could take a 30,000-foot view, and field a more consistent division winner for the next few years. Indianapolis has a full slate of picks, one in each round, in ’24.
Buffalo Bills
Why they should sell: The Bills are also in our buyers category, but I think the theme of this deadline could certainly be “strategic turnover.” Sometimes, during a period of staleness, a team needs to shift its focus and shed some weight. Buffalo has a massive draft class on tap for 2024 with 10 selections on the books. I don’t think there’s ever a problem with adding more draft capital, especially if the Bills want to break out of the habit of selecting so low, so consistently.
Who they should sell: Kaiir Elam makes sense, and while the return won’t be life-changing, we have seen late-round picks become the foundation of larger moves down the road. The Bills’ 2024 and ’25 free-agent classes are not loaded, though some of the team’s less reliable pass rushers are due to come up. Like Elam, could they find a taker and help use that capital to replenish their draft stock as part of a larger chase for pass-rushing help? It might be worth trying to find out.
