QB Confidence Index: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye May Take Their Place in NFC

Top draft prospects could shake up the conference in April, but for now, there’s one first-year starter who tops the list with franchise QB potential.

Author:
Gilberto Manzano
Publish date:
Feb 14, 2024

It’s become common knowledge that the AFC has better quarterbacks than the NFC. There’s no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or C.J. Stroud, but the NFC could still get a boost from the 2024 NFL draft.

The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders hold the first and second picks, respectively, in April’s draft. Both face uncertainty at the quarterback position, so they might not be able to pass on quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Also, the Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks could be looking for quarterbacks in the draft.

Others might search for their next starting quarterbacks in free agency. Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield are currently scheduled to be free agents.

With the quarterback carousel starting up again in a few weeks, we decided to rank the NFC based on quarterback confidence. Here’s how each NFC team should feel about their situation under center heading into the offseason:

16. Atlanta Falcons

Quarterbacks: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke

Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. knocks the ball out of the hand of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder. — Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons this season.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons have two quarterbacks listed. That alone explains why they’re at the bottom of this QB confidence story for NFC teams. Atlanta’s failure to find one quality signal-caller ultimately got Arthur Smith fired after three seasons. New coach Raheem Morris probably has a note on his bedroom ceiling that reads, “Find a franchise quarterback.” The Falcons currently have the eighth pick in the draft, but don’t be surprised if they move inside the top five to draft a quarterback. (It would be the first time they drafted a quarterback in the first round since Matt Ryan in 2008.) If Atlanta stands pat, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. could be available.

15. Washington Commanders

Quarterback: Sam Howell

With Washington holding the No. 2 pick in the draft, Howell’s days as the team’s starting quarterback are numbered. The Commanders will likely select either Williams or Maye, Howell’s former college teammate. Perhaps Howell gets another season as the starter to allow the incoming rookie to develop, but top-five picks rarely get a year to watch from the sidelines. Plus Howell didn’t play well enough to be considered a bridge quarterback, unlike Kansas City’s situation with Alex Smith and Mahomes in 2017.

14. New York Giants

Quarterback: Daniel Jones

Jones should thank backup quarterback Tommy DeVito for winning three consecutive games and putting the Giants outside of the top five for the 2024 draft. But that still might not be enough to save Jones’s starting job, with New York holding the No. 6 pick instead. LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner, could be available by the time the Giants are on the clock. Jones, however, does have some leverage: He has $36 million guaranteed for the 2024 season, and it would cost the team $69.3 million in dead money to cut him. But Jones’s guaranteed money is done after 2024, giving the team the option to move on just two years after signing him to a four-year, $160 million extension. Jones had a rough season before tearing his ACL in November.

13. Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: Geno Smith

Smith regressed after winning Comeback Player of the Year in 2022, but he still had a decent season in ’23. (The Seahawks’ disappointing year mostly stemmed from a faulty defensive unit.) Smith is good enough to make the postseason, but he’s not a franchise quarterback who sticks around for years. He could be gone in Seattle if the team finds a better option. Smith doesn’t have any guaranteed money left on his contract, and the team could save $13.8 million in cap space if it decides to release him, according to Over the Cap. The Seahawks have the 16th pick in the draft—perhaps they use it to draft Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or Oregon’s Bo Nix.

12. Chicago Bears

Quarterback: Justin Fields

Justin Fields shifts with the ball in between his two hands as a Falcons lineman runs at him — Fields could be traded ahead of the draft.
Jamie Sabau/USA TODAY Sports

If this were a QB rankings story instead, Fields would have been listed a lot higher than 12th. He’s better than at least half the starting quarterbacks in the NFC, and yet he doesn’t appear to be a special signal-caller. The Bears have the No. 1 pick in the draft—and getting Williams or Maye could do what C.J. Stroud did for the Houston Texans in 2023. It helps that Chicago retained coach Matt Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles, who stayed committed to Fields when the Bears traded the No. 1 pick last year. But Fields dealt with injuries and was again inconsistent as a passer this past season. He also had a flat performance in Week 18 vs. the Green Bay Packers, which was an opportunity for the Bears to spoil their rivals’ playoff hopes.

11. New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: Derek Carr

Carr had a rocky first season in New Orleans, but he played well down the stretch and developed chemistry with wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Also, it’s a good sign for Carr that the team decided not to fire coach Dennis Allen, who pushed for the Saints to sign Carr after his release from the Raiders. As for other advantages, Carr is owed $30 million guaranteed in 2024 and the team would have to eat $52.8 million in dead money to release him, according to Over the Cap. Carr might not be the long-term answer, but all signs point to him being the starting quarterback of the Saints in ’24. New Orleans has the No. 14 pick in the draft.

10. Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Bryce Young

Young’s starting job is safe because of what the Panthers gave up to get him. But there’s not much confidence in his play after poor performances throughout his rookie season. Young did flash his high ceiling during a Week 15 performance against the Packers, throwing for 312 yards and two touchdowns. And he could be set for a better second season with the arrival of rookie coach Dave Canales, who helped Smith and Mayfield revive their careers in Seattle and Tampa Bay, respectively. It’s also on the Panthers, beyond Young, to improve one of the worst rosters in the NFL.

9. Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Kirk Cousins

Cousins might have been a lock to return to Minnesota had he not sustained a season-ending Achilles injury vs. the Packers in Week 8. He was arguably playing the best football of his career and kept the team afloat despite losing star wideout Justin Jefferson due to injury. But Cousins is a pending free agent and entering his age-36 season. The Vikings could, however, agree to a one-year contract extension with Cousins to see how he plays after the severe injury. And Cousins would be the ideal bridge quarterback if they decide to draft another in April. Minnesota holds the No. 11 pick in the draft.

8. San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Brock Purdy

There’s some uncertainty with Purdy after the 49ers again fell short of winning Super Bowl LVIII against the Chiefs on Sunday. San Francisco is in win-now mode and might not have the patience for Purdy to develop into a consistent star quarterback. It doesn't help that coach Kyle Shanahan has ties to Cousins, who, as mentioned, is scheduled to be a free agent. Still, Purdy might have earned the team’s commitment after leading the 49ers to two come-from-behind playoff victories against the Packers and Detroit Lions. Purdy also had a decent showing in the Super Bowl, but he’s not Mahomes, who was a difference maker in the fourth quarter and OT. San Francisco might be searching for its own difference maker.

7. Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Kyler Murray

Murray is similar to Fields in that they’re both supremely athletic with a strong arm, but inconsistent throughout their careers. Murray, however, isn’t on a rookie contract and his team doesn’t own a top-two draft pick. The quarterback has likely shown enough flashes to convince the Cardinals not to draft the third best quarterback prospect in the draft. It appears coach Jonathan Gannon liked what he saw from Murray under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing when the 2019 No. 1 pick returned from injury midway through the season.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield reignited his career during his first season with the Buccaneers. He had a sensational playoff performance in the loss vs. the Lions and developed a connection with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Under the watch of Canales, Mayfield had fewer rocky performances than he did in Cleveland and Carolina. The coach is now in Carolina, but Tampa Bay added Mayfield’s former offensive coordinator Liam Coen to call plays. Coen and Mayfield had positive results during a brief stint with the Rams in 2022. Expect Mayfield and the Buccaneers to agree on a contract extension.

5. Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Jared Goff

Goff will likely cash in this offseason after guiding the Lions to their best season in 32 years. Behind Goff, the Lions beat the Rams and Buccaneers before losing to the 49ers in the NFC title game. Goff might not be your typical franchise quarterback, but he’s been the right signal-caller for the Lions, especially with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (who withdrew from the Commanders’ head coaching vacancy to return to Detroit). Look for Goff and the Lions to agree on a contract extension.

4. Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: Dak Prescott

Prescott will likely agree to another lucrative contract extension with the Cowboys, even despite his lack of postseason success. Prescott, who doesn’t have any guaranteed money left on his current deal, had the best season of his career with Mike McCarthy calling the offensive plays. Owner Jerry Jones should put pressure on Prescott to perform better in the playoffs by making him wait for a new contract, but that likely won’t happen—quarterbacks as good as Prescott are hard to find. Prescott had an MVP-worthy regular season before flaming out in the wild-card playoff loss vs. the Packers.

3. Los Angeles Rams

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford

Stafford returned from an injury-riddled 2022 season to guide the Rams back to the playoffs with an inexperienced roster. Stafford helped with the development of rookie sensation Puka Nacua and made elite throws throughout the season. Because Stafford recently turned 36, Los Angeles could draft a quarterback, but all signs point to him being the starter for the foreseeable future. And, most importantly, Stafford has plenty of confidence from coach Sean McVay.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Jalen Hurts

Hurts didn’t play as well this year as he did in his breakout 2022 season, but he has done enough to be considered a reliable long-term quarterback, which is why the team decided to lock him down last offseason with a five-year, $255 million contract extension. Hurts is a standout dual-threat quarterback who has had plenty of success under coach Nick Sirianni the past few seasons.

1. Green Bay Packers

Quarterback: Jordan Love

Out of all the quarterbacks in the NFC, Love likely has the most confidence from his team thanks to his elite skill set and sensational performances throughout his first season as the starting quarterback in Green Bay. Just on quarterback play alone, perhaps only Stafford is a better NFC signal-caller than Love. But the Packers quarterback is only 25 and could grow to be as good as Stafford in his prime—maybe even better than his Green Bay predecessor Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ confidence level in Love might be at 90% as of now; they can make it 100% by hammering out a massive long-term contract extension with him this offseason.