NFL Running Back Market Foreshadows Christian McCaffrey's 49ers Tenure

Today marks as a rude awakening for running backs across the NFL.

Raiders' All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs and Giants' Saquon Barkley did not sign their franchise tags by the deadline. The tag was going to award a guaranteed salary for the 2023 season to both players at $10.1 million. That's a great sum of money for any running back, but Jacobs and Barkley most likely refrained from signing the franchise tag due to absence of long-term security. The lack of a deal for both players has caused an eruption amongst many others at the position.

This is the kind of trash that has artificially devalued one of the most important positions in the game. Everyone knows it’s tough to win without a top RB and yet they act like we are discardable widgets. I support any RB doing whatever it takes to get his bag. https://t.co/sRYfAKwrpQ
— Austin Ekeler (@AustinEkeler) July 17, 2023

1. If you’re good enough, they’ll find you.

2. If you work hard enough, you’ll succeed.

…If you succeed…

3. You boost the Organization

…and then…

Doesn’t matter, you’re a RB https://t.co/mG6In1ATGg
— Jonathan Taylor (@JayT23) July 17, 2023

At this point , just take the RB position out the game then . The ones that want to be great & work as hard as they can to give their all to an organization , just seems like it don’t even matter . I’m with every RB that’s fighting to get what they deserve . https://t.co/OgvBWZCKvn
— Derrick Henry  (@KingHenry_2) July 17, 2023

Running backs have been getting devalued for the last 10 years in the NFL, yet the 49ers hold them in high regard thanks to Kyle Shanahan's love of running the ball. That is why the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey, who I am sure they are glad they do not have to worry about a situation like this with him for another couple years. His contract does not expire until 2026 and his salary does not come off the books since the 49ers restructured his deal back in late April.

Still, the current running back market is bleak and trending in a poor direction for the position. It could foreshadow McCaffrey's tenure with whether or not he hangs around for a second contract. This is a bit tricky because McCaffrey is more than just a running back. He's a great running back who has the additional ability of acting as a wide receiver both in the backfield and lined up at the line of scrimmage, and he does so at a high level. That is why he's received the most guaranteed money out of all the running backs with his current contract at $38.1 million. Only Titans' Derick Henry and Saints' Alvin Kamara come close to him in total guarantees. Henry is a human bulldozer while Kamara is versatile like McCaffrey.

McCaffrey is the PERFECT fit in the 49ers offense because he can be so interchangeable at an elite level. So, if you're the 49ers, you would absolutely pay the high cost to retain him because his skillset is so elite and aligns with what you want to do on offense. However, by the time McCaffrey's contract is about to be up, you have to wonder how his body is holding up. That will be the first and foremost contributing factor into bringing him back and what his value will be at, then it will be how productive can he still be. McCaffrey will be turning 30-years old by the time his deal with the 49ers is done.

Typically running backs begin to fall drastically in performance once they hit their 30s. Given all those factors to consider and with the running back market looking extremely poor, I'd bet that McCaffrey doesn't stay with the 49ers after his current contract expires. The only way it will occur is if he somehow is still one of the best in the league with little health concerns, but again, that isn't usually how it goes for running backs. Look at Jacobs and Barkley today. They can't even get their own teams who drafted them to lock them up for a few years. It's because they're already looking to replace them.

Everything will need to be perfect for the 49ers to want to keep McCaffrey, and it'll also be on McCaffrey to determine what his value is. So unless he wants to come back on a much cheaper deal, then the 49ers will already be looking, if not already found his replacement. It's a tough life for the running backs and every year in the NFL it gets worse for them.

Today is just another example of it growing difficult for them.