The one area that will decide whether the 49ers will beat the Bears

This is key.

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The San Francisco 49ers defense is starting to get cold right as the Chicago Bears offense is starting to get hot. This should have 49ers fans worried about their Week 17 matchup that will decide where each teams stands in the NFC, and it does worry the prognoticators at Pro Football Focus. Thomas Valentine broke down the big game and noted that the 49ers defense could win in one specific area. 

Can the San Francisco 49ers shut down the Chicago Bears play action?

The key to the game will be play action, according to Valentine. 

A key reason for the Bears’ improvement on offense has been the use of play action. The Bears are 16th in EPA per play on play-action passes, and Williams has attempted a play-action pass on 34.5% of his dropbacks, earning an 83.5 overall PFF grade — the eighth-highest among quarterbacks. Moreover, his 6.1% big-time throw rate is fifth-highest.

The Bears have married the play-action pass game with their rushing attack to create one of the better offenses in the NFL. The 49ers’ defense has handled play action well in 2025 despite the myriad of injuries suffered. The defense is eighth in EPA per play-action play, and 14th in success rate. Can Johnson scheme ways to beat the 49ers’ defense?

Thomas Valentine

This is going to be a very interesting matchup. As noted, the Bears are very good when they try to attempt play action. That comes down to the idea that they do not overuse it, but also they have a run game that supports it. 

Chicago is better at running the football than passing. They wear teams down as the game goes on and it forces teams to push extra defenders in the box and respect the run game. So, when they do run play action, most teams will be thinking run first anyways. This is what gets them to bite so hard. 

When Williams hits on play action, it is usually for big plays. This will be a big test for many involved.

Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Tatum Bethune just returned to the lineup. He is a good run defender, but a target on his back when it comes to play action. Jason Pinnock is the 49ers dime defender, and he has been an issue since stepping into the role. 

Dee Winters had a huge play against the Colts, but he has struggled in coverage as well. Even Ji’Ayir Brown allowed a touchdown against the Colts. 

The post mentions that San Francisco has done well against play action, but that starts with them doing well against the run. However, this team has hardly been tested against strong rushing attacks, and there are just a few games where they have had to dedicate a real effort to stopping the run. So, they have not been too susceptible to play action. 

The Chicago passing attack will have a say in this game, and the play action is going to be key. However, if San Francisco can stop the run, none of these issues will emerge of be as damaging as expected. Play action is a key to the game, but it will still be determined by what Chicago does on the ground.