The Pros and Cons of the 49ers Starting Brock Purdy Against Arizona

Is it a risk worth taking?

Oct 6, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws the ball to tight end George Kittle (85) against the Arizona Cardinals during the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Brock Purdy will start against the Arizona Cardinals; the 49ers’ training staff has determined he’s healthy and ready to play. However, reports from practice indicate that Purdy didn’t have zip on his throws and his passes floated. Game day will tell the story of whether it was wise to start Purdy.

The case for starting Purdy

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1. If he’s healthy enough to practice, then as the franchise QB he should start.

2.       The next four games are the easiest of the remaining schedule, now is the time to get Purdy back to form and playoff ready.

3.       If Purdy does return to form the team gains confidence as a unit and in Purdy to close out the year.

4.       Purdy will need time to ramp up, best to do it now against easier opponents than the final three games with the playoffs at stake.

5.       If George Kittle is an indication, the team believes Purdy is the better quarterback over Jones and that will show itself on the field.

6.       Purdy’s performance against Arizona will provide clarity. The team will know if Purdy should or shouldn’t play. The Cardinals game should end any QB debate up or down.

Those in my view are the logical reasons why starting Purdy can work. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are the reasons why Kyle Shanahan is starting him. The narrative obsessed Niners can also be looking to shut down any QB controversy and not let the topic linger. They make a definitive statement with a vote of confidence in Purdy. To me though, they’ve already done that with the contract.

The case against starting Purdy

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1.       If he’s not fully healthy and suffers a re-injury setback that likely ends his season.

2.       The Johns Hopkins turf toe study recommends ten weeks of rest. That’s Week 15, not Week 11. They may be rushing him back. Again.

3.       In order to improve his velocity, Purdy tweaked his mechanics before the draft, using more hip torque to drive the ball. That requires a stable base, turf toe can prevent that, and Purdy can lose velocity as a result.

4.       If Purdy can’t drive off his bad toe, he may not return to form, and can commit turnovers that cost the Niners games they can’t afford to lose. The Johns Hopkins study predicts a 70% chance of returning to past performance.

5.       If Purdy doesn’t return to form, it can impact the team’s emotion and confidence.

6.       There’s no reason to do this. The team has proven it can win with Jones, Shanahan has said Purdy won’t be 100% this season, so why do this? Why risk it?

Given that Shanahan believes Purdy won’t be 100% this year, the risk-reward of this decision is out of balance. The risks are far greater, and for no reason other than narrative? That isn’t putting the interests of the team or Purdy first.  I think it’s reckless and unnecessary. If Purdy suffers a setback that will be on Shanahan, it’s a throw of the dice.