Putting the 49ers Contention Puzzle Together: The Draft

The draft wild card is Myles Garrett requesting a trade out of Cleveland. The 49ers can be in play, but it would likely require giving up the 11th pick in this draft, and say a 2nd and a 4th that can be this year or next.

The Niners were willing to go all-in for Khalil Mack a few years ago but he was younger, Garrett turns 30 next December. The Browns would prefer to deal Garrett to the NFC, so the Niners do have a legit shot - if they’re willing to give up 11. This is a test for Kyle Shanahan if he goes all-in for the now or values the future. I think he passes on Garrett.

THE DRAFT

After the Senior Bowl, the consensus has the early draft split into three groups of similar talent: 1-5, 6-20, and 21-60. The top five: Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, Mason Graham, and the two quarterbacks. Carter to the Browns at 2 would be locked in with Garrett requesting out.

The Niners will be focused on 6-11. Who goes ahead of them? The projections as of now, the two Wills, Johnson and Campbell, receiver Tetairoa McMillian, edge Mykel Williams, and an eye of the beholder selection or a team looking to pick or trade up for Ashton Jeanty.

11
O: Ashton Jeanty (Boise St) RB, Tyler Warren (Penn St) TE, Josh Simmons (Ohio St) OT
D: Walter Nolen (Ole Miss) DT, James Pearce Jr. (Tenn) Edge, Jalon Walker (Georgia) LB/Edge

Chicago picks before the Niners at 10, I think they will prefer Campbell then Jeanty. My guess is Shanahan has his eyes on another back, but Jeanty has to be tempting. Warren solves the red zone problems, 17 red zone TDs in two years. Simmons is the top tackle, but coming off an ACL injury.

Nolen is the best pass rushing DT in the class and has been comped to Quinnen Williams, Robert Saleh’s blueprint. Pearce is a productive edge with elite tools. Walker is a rising talent but will need the defense built around him.

Defense is the primary need, plus no Niner DT in the PFF Top 50. Saleh’s defense depends on a two-way DT, and I believe Nolen is BPA if he’s on the board. With Aaron Glenn as the new Jets head coach, if he directs the pick he'll likely focus on the defensive line - and may take a Niner target.

The Pick: 1. Nolen (Ole Miss) DT, 2. Pearce Jr. (Tenn) Edge, 3. Warren (Penn St) TE

43
O: TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio St) RB, Mason Taylor (LSU) TE, Donovan Jackson (Ohio St) T/G
D: Jiihad Campbell (Ala) LB, DB or safety considered here if not taken in free agency

While the consensus is trenches, I think there’s a good chance Shanahan goes RB or TE and maybe both on Day 2.

Henderson is Shanahan’s dream back. Home run speed, threat to the defense as a runner and receiver, a great blocker in pass protection, and the cherry on top, no lost fumbles in his career. Fumbling may move Shanahan off Jeanty and on to Henderson. The future back is a need with Christian McCaffrey in sunset, and Shanahan’s offense has thrived when the back is elite.

This is a great draft for tight ends, at the top. Four catch-block players in Warren, Colston Loveland, Mason Taylor, and Elijah Arroyo. Analysts are putting all of them in the first, I think one falls to 43 or within range for a move up. The Niners will have to consider it.

George Kittle is 31 and the offense needs the 12 personnel option with a two-way TE2. Part of drafting is getting ahead of the talent gap; tight end hits a steep cliff to one-way players after the top four are gone. That may force a TE pick here.

Jackson has been a rock for Ohio State all year at guard and tackle, he can be a day-one starter at either position.

If all of the offense targets are gone, I could see the Niners dealing back, maybe 43 and a 4th to Denver for 51 and 85.

Campbell is a tank for Bama, a converted edge. He has all of the physical skills, but not the LB diagnostics.

The Pick: 1. Henderson (Ohio St) RB, 2. Taylor/Arroyo TE, 3. Jackson (Ohio St) OT/OG

Henderson is more important than a tight end, but he may go off the board in the 30s. Without a TE here the Niners are out of options, no free agents, and limited players after the top four in the draft. That adds pressure to go TE at 43.

At 75, edge led by South Carolina’s Kyle Kennard and LSU’s Bradyn Swinson, safety with Andrew Mukuba of Texas and Malachi Moore of Alabama. The pick here will depend on whether the Niners sign a free agent at either position. Mukuba is one of my draft crushes, 4.3 speed with five picks.

99 is the offensive line safety net, if an OL hasn’t been picked yet he could go here. At guard Georgia’s Dylan Fairchild is a great scheme fit and there are more quality options inside than at tackle.

I’ll have a full mock draft later this week.

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