What the Over/Under for Receptions is for Deebo Samuel in 2023

I don't believe Samuel will have back-to-back poor seasons. He's extremely motivated to rewrite history with his down year in 2022 and I fully believe he will be able to.

Deebo Samuel had a "fall from grace" 2022 season.

He went from being the driving force that carried the 49ers in 2021, to being reduced to a threat and decoy for the offense. All of his stats took a dive this past season, but his targets were still fairly high at 94. Of those 94, Samuel reeled in 56 of them. Drops played a slight role as well as poor targeting and throws from his quarterbacks. 

But Samuel is not an effective route runner. He's simply average there, which makes sending him out on anything intermediate to deep on pass plays useless. That is probably why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under for receptions for Samuel at 59.5. They could be banking on him having another down year. 

So, will Samuel have over or under 59.5 receptions in 2023?

It's a close call for me, but I will go with the under. I don't believe Samuel will have back-to-back poor seasons. He's extremely motivated to rewrite history with his down year in 2022 and I fully believe he will be able to. But how I envision that season being rewritten in 2023 is him having way more big plays registered. It's kind of the middle ground between the low 2022 season and the vastly high 2021 season.

Samuel will rip off more chunk plays that go for over 20 yards with some going for scores. Because of that, the targets going his way will not be that high. It would be unwise for the 49ers to ride his coattails again like they did in 2021. I think it's safe to say that while 2021 showed how electric and magical Samuel can be, it isn't sustainable. That season was revealing of his talent and also an outlier. I sincerely doubt he ever comes close to that version again.

Not to mention that the 49ers have way better talent next to him than they did in 2021. That season it was him with Elijah Mitchell playing an adequate complimentary role. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle were just the "support characters" to the "main character" that was Samuel in 2021 in story/movie terms. Well, 2023 has a bunch of main characters in the 49ers offense, so there is no need for Samuel to be the 2021 version. That version will probably only come out in a few games at best when he is desperately needed if it comes to that. 

Still, 59.5 receptions isn't an incredible number for receptions. Samuel could very well get over it, but I think he will miss out by several receptions. He's only ever gone past 59.5 once and that was his All-Pro 2021 season. I wouldn't worry much about the catches though because he will make up for it with quality over quantity. Kind of like Kittle was last year with his high scoring (11) output to fairly low receiving (60) tally. I like the under for catches for Samuel this upcoming season.