Bear Digest

Bears can manage costs for Trey Hendrickson but should they?

The compensation and even the salary cap numbers to some extent could be dealt with by the Bears if they wanted edge rusher Trey Hendrickson but there are other factors involved.
Gene Chamberlain|
Trey Hendrickson is definitely worth the trade compensation being thrown around by one reporter but what about the cost?
Trey Hendrickson is definitely worth the trade compensation being thrown around by one reporter but what about the cost? | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears can definitely find a way to trade for edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.

This isn't even a question, if the actual asking price is what has been reported by CBS' Jonathan Jones. Jones says an early third-round pick is the asking price and coincidentally the Bears have an early third-round pick they could give. Jones also says the Bengals would actually want a late second-round pick.

The Bears could easily turn one of their early second-round picks into a late second-rounder by trading back and also obtain a Day 3 pick in the exchange. Then they could make that kind of deal.

For Hendrickson, even the 41st pick might be worthwhile based on the past production.

The fit is obvious because Hendrickson just started to come into his own as an edge rusher in Dennis Allen's system with the Saints in 2020, his fourth year playing for them after only 6 1/2 sacks in his first three injury riddled seasons.

With so many edge rushers who have big sack numbers, stopping the run is an issue but Hendrickson has had 65 tackles for loss in his last five seasons. His run-stopping numbers have gone up with his pass rushing productivity.

The important numbers are the same ones that would hurt the Bears in a possible trade for Myles Garrett.

It's the cash but even more so one other number.

They might even be able to get around the cash situation, but thanks to the outrageous and irresponsible contract the Raiders gave Maxx Crosby, the next team to get Hendrickson or any team that gives Garrett a new contract is going to need to completely destroy their salary cap structure.

It's probably going low to expect $33.3 million a year or more for three years for Hendrickson. This isn't money that comes out of the 2025 salary cap, which is good for the Bears because they are down below $43 million in available effective cap space as of Friday.

It will come out of their 2026 cap and they'll have other expenses to consider. They might need to give contract extensions out of that to Kyler Gordon, Joe Thuney, T.J. Edwards, Andrew Billings, Jaquan Brisker and Braxton Jones. Some of those players probably won't get extensions but the majority probably will. That would come out of $102 million in available cap space, and then they need to deduct their draft picks and any other free agents they need. The $102 million is only 13th most.

It does look possible, although not easily manageable.

The bigger problem is the other number. It's the number 30. It's Hendrickson's age, of course.

Past production does not mean future production and if you're paying out big money to a pass rusher they better be on the other side of the 30 wall.

Although the Raiders' big contract to Maxx Crosby drove the market sky high, at least they're getting someone 27 years old.

Someone who acquires Hendrickson will be paying for past production and not the future. One study performed over a four-year period from 2018-21 by Broncos writer Joe Mahoney looking at 30 edge rushers showed a decline in production for edges beginning at age 27, picking up speed at 30 and really going off a cliff by age 32.

Someone might get a year or two of good play from Hendrickson but he turns 31 during this next season. Any contract longer than three years would be ill-advised based on the age study.

The ideal situation for the Bears would be to come up with their own pass rusher early in the draft and pay one not quite as accomplished as Hendrickson this year on a free agency deal. They already have the expensive edge rusher they acquired in a trade in Montez Sweat, for better or worse.

Sweat is only 28 and they've had him for 1 1/2 seasons, so that move could be justified at the time according to age.

They do need to add two pass rushers because they already had a weak pass rush, Darrell Taylor and Jake Martin are leaving in free agency and they trimmed starter Demarcus Walker from the roster.

Paying out $100 million deal for three years to a 30-something edge rusher who might command a far bigger chunk of their salary cap than even Sweat's team-high amount while there are other expenses coming at them would make little sense.

It probably would require them to gut their linebackers and secondary and start all over to afford a player who would be fading in productivity.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.