Bear Digest

Chicago Bears over on wins labeled among best NFL early options

With numerous betting experts calling 8 1/2 wins too many for Ben Johnson's Bears, one voice says it's an easy early bet to make.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams searches for a receiver against Minnesota last season.
Caleb Williams searches for a receiver against Minnesota last season. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

While some betting experts have looked at the 8 1/2-win over/under total on the Bears season for the down side, there is something else coming from CBS Sportsline's betting expert Gene Menez.

In fact, his news is twice as good for Bears fans when it comes to over/under totals.

Menez has over on the Bears' win total listed as his four plays worth making right now.

"I expect significant improvements from a defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed per game last season," Menez wrote.

"Chicago went 1-5 in games decided by three or fewer points and 3-7 in games decided by seven or fewer, indicating bad luck in close contests. The Bears' revamped roster, improved quarterback play and coaching upgrades look promising for at least nine wins."

It's difficult to dispute the "bad luck" claim by Menez. A Hair Mary and two blocked field goals figured prominently in three losses.

Then there was the fiasco in Detroit, although that was more dumb coaching than bad luck. Still, without a sketchy penalty call on Teven Jenkins the Bears are looking at winning the game in regulation rather than foolishly eating their last timeout after a sack.

The other bit of good news for the Bears in Menez's best bets is Detroit Lions at under 10 1/2. If he's right, the worst the Bears do is finish with the same record as Detroit and they could finish better.

"The Lions face the most challenging schedule in 2025, with 11 games against playoff teams from last season," Menez wrote. "Detroit must adjust to new coordinators on both sides of the ball following the departures of Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Additionally, the defense lost five Week 1 starters from the 2024 season."

These two do not look like the surest bets regarding the Bears, though. Earlier in the offseason the over/under total for Caleb Williams' passing yards was set at his rookie yardage total 3,541 and at the time Iain MacMillan, Sports Illustrated's senior editor covering betting, called this a very low number. It's even lower now.

As of Friday, FanDuel has it -114 for Williams hitting over 3,525.5. DraftKings has it slightly higher at 3,550.5.

MacMillan summed it up this way: "I'm not the biggest believer in Williams, but it’s not hard to imagine him improving from his rookie season numbers when he threw for 3,541 yards," MacMillan wrote. "Now, he has a much more competent head coach in Johnson and a revamped offensive line, which should do wonders for his development.

Not only that, but when Johnson became Lions offensive coordinator Jared Goff's passing yardage total jumped by about 500 yards and then kept climbing from there.

In 2021, Goff missed three games and had 3,245 yards but was on track for 3,940 in a 17-game season. He had 3,952 in his last Rams season. With Johnson calling plays, he went to 4,438, then 4,575 and finally 4,629.

Those improvements came in 2022 with a Lions offensive line nowhere near what it would be in 2023 and with fewer dangerous wide receiver targets than the Bears now have. Kalif Raymond was their second-leading wide receiver.

The only worry here with the over on Williams' total is injuries. He made it through last year without missing a game and that definitely helps the total.

It was the first time since 2009 in Jay Cutler's first Bears season when the starter went without missing a game. Odds say it won't happen again, but with the impact of Johnson's offensive expertise Williams could probably miss a game or two and still get over the 3,550.5-yard passing total.

-Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.