Bear Digest

Chicago Bears' 2025 schedule is projected to be among the toughest

Can the Bears rise to the challenge and post a winning record for the first time since 2018?
Kirsten Tanis|
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are projected to have the seventh-hardest strength of schedule in 2025, according to Sharp Football Analysis.

A key input into their model is the projected win total for each NFL team from Vegas oddsmakers.

Current Vegas odds suggest that the Bears will win 8.5 games this season. The model also projects that the Bears will be underdogs in eleven of seventeen games.

Why is the Bears' 2025 schedule projected to be so hard?

The main factors driving the difficulty are:

  • Being part of the highly-competitive NFC North, where three of four teams made the 2024 playoffs. Because the Bears play each team twice, it amplifies the difficulty of the schedule.
  • Playing the NFC East, which includes the Super Bowl champion Eagles and NFC Championship runner-up Commanders.
  • Facing off versus the perennially strong AFC North. The Ravens and Steelers were playoff teams in 2024. The Bengals are projected to rebound and put up a winning record in 2025.

It's a myth that the NFL aims to "even the playing field" through the schedule.

Many people believe in the idea that the best teams should play a tougher schedule the next season, and the worst teams should play an easier one. That's not necessarily what happens though.

Consider the Bills:

  • The 2023 Bills had a 11-6 record.
  • In 2024, their actual strength of schedule was the sixth-easiest.
  • Playing that schedule, the 2024 Bills achieved a 13-4 record.
  • Looking ahead to 2025, they are projected to have the fifth-easiest schedule.
  • Bottom Line: They won even more games in 2024, and yet their schedule is slightly easier.

Now, consider the Giants.

  • The 2023 Giants had a 6-11 record.
  • In 2024, their actual strength of schedule was the tenth-hardest in the NFL.
  • The 2024 Giants had a 3-14 record playing that schedule.
  • They are projected to have the hardest schedule in 2025.
  • Bottom Line: They had the worst record in the NFL in 2024, and yet their schedule is projected to be the toughest in 2025.

In fairness to the NFL, there's not a lot they can do to influence which opponents a team plays. That's because opponents for fourteen of seventeen games are pre-determined two years in advance.

  • Six games are against teams within the division.
  • Four games are against teams in another division within the same conference. (rotates)
  • Four games are against teams in a division in the other conference. (rotates)
  • Only three opponents for the remaining games are selected each year to round out the schedule.

As such, the level of difficulty for each team's schedule is heavily influenced by how strong the teams are in the divisions they play each year.

If a team competes in a division with very good teams like the Bears do this season, that's a double whammy in difficulty since they play division opponents twice a year. On the other hand, teams who play in a weaker division like the AFC South or NFC South have been in recent years benefit from an overall easier schedule.

How does the Bears' schedule compare to the rest of the NFC North?

If there is good news, it's that no team in the NFC North will have an easy schedule.

  • The Lions are projected to have the third-most difficult schedule ─ hardest among the NFC North.
  • The Vikings are estimated to have the fifth-most difficult schedule.
  • The Packers are projected to have the tenth-most difficult schedule ─ the easiest among NFC North teams.

When comparing the 2025 projections to each team's *actual* 2024 strength of schedule, some NFC North teams are slated to have more difficult schedules and one team will have an easier one.

The Vikings are among the five teams in the NFL whose projected schedule is much more difficult than it actually was a season ago. In 2024, their actual strength of schedule was fifteenth-easiest. That's a thirteen place difference from their projected fifth-hardest schedule this season.

The Lions schedule is estimated to be slightly harder than last season. In 2024, they had the eighth-hardest actual schedule. Their projection has them fall five spots to the third-hardest in 2025.

The Packers schedule is essentially the same difficulty as a year ago, projected to be only one spot more difficult than what it was in 2024.

The Bears schedule is expected to be easier than it was a season ago, but still difficult. That's because in 2024 the Bears' actual strength of schedule was the hardest in the NFL.

How accurate are strength of schedule predictions?

Predictions improve as the strength of schedule projections are updated with actual results each week during the season.

Projections made before the season are not perfect, but they are informative. Sharp Football Analytics states the following about their prediction model:

"Year in and year out, teams that are predicted to have the easiest schedules are far more likely to finish with winning records. Teams that are predicted to have the hardest schedules are far more likely to finish with losing records."

Their data also shows:

"In 2024, just 2 of 10 teams with the toughest schedules made the playoffs (Lions and Rams). Meanwhile, of the 10 teams with the easiest schedules, 7 produced winning records, with 6 making the playoffs."

As they note above, superb teams can be successful in spite of a difficult schedule. The 15-2 Lions did it versus the actual eighth-toughest schedule in 2024.

Conversely, we've witnessed playoff teams from the previous season falter against a tough schedule. An example from last season is the 6-11 49ers who played the fourth-hardest schedule. (As an aside, one of the reasons they are expected to have a bounce-back season in 2025 is their schedule is projected to be the easiest.)

We've also seen teams surge against an easier schedule, like the 12-5 Commanders. They actually had the easiest strength of schedule in 2024, despite being in the same division as the Super Bowl champion Eagles and playing them twice during the regular season.

As for the Bears, in recent years when they've been projected to have an easier schedule than average, it hasn't turned out to be the case. In 2024, the Bears were projected to have the third-easiest schedule before the season. In reality (as stated above), they had the hardest schedule in the NFL. Something similar happened in 2022.

Here's hoping that more luck bounces in the Bears' favor in 2025, and the schedule turns out to be easier in actuality that what it's predicted to be. Looking at the teams the Bears are facing though, that's hard to imagine.

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Kirsten Tanis
KIRSTEN TANIS

Kirsten Tanis has been covering the Chicago Bears since 2023 with balanced, insightful and well-researched analysis. A lifelong avid sports fan, she is most passionate about NFL Football and believes flea flickers are underrated. She lives with her husband, 3 kids and cats.

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