Revisions for Bears Fantasy Totals
The entire game of projecting fantasy football production or football statistics is opportunity meets situation.
Two seasons ago BearDigest.com not only predicted David Montgomery's rushing yardage total on the head, but also got Allen Robinson's receiving yardage total within 20 yards.
Situations develop in seasons just as they do in the offseason. Last year's situation was the stench from the Matt Nagy offense and coaching staff, combined with COVID and injuries.
Injuries always disrupt the prediction business.
Yet there are ways around this.
Last year the big question for fantasy players was what Justin Fields would do stat-wise as a quarterback who was being held back by the Nagy regime?
Numbers being put forth in many places for Fields were entirely unrealistic. BearDigest forecasted this:
- 10 starts, 5-5 record, 63% completions, 2,328 yards, 16 TDs, 10 interceptions, 85.6 passer rating, 6.8 yards per attempt, 331 rushing yards, 4 TDs.
It was made using a formula involving need and taking into account the struggles likely ahead for Nagy's offense.
The yards per attempt missed by one-tenth. The games were hit right on the head, the interceptions were nailed. His rushing yardage wasn't far off and his yardage was within the ballpark. Fields' completion percentage and overall passer grade were off but if you measure his last five starts after Nagy figured out he couldn't let Fields stand back there and be pummeled, then they were dead on. His passer rating for the last five starts was within two points and his completion percentage within two points.
Injuries and the unexpected occur in preseason. A projection for Fields was made well before training camp, but now after receivers have been injured, others stepped up and the offensive line has been shuffled about, new numbers are necessary for Fields and other Bears.
More important for the fantasy player is the logic behind these revisions because it could lead them to make decisions based on actual expectations for the coaching staff.
David Montgomery's participation looks to be a little greater than before training camp because it's apparent offensive coordinator Luke Getsy doesn't need more sharing if he likes what he sees from Montgomery, but he does have options. Fields' numbers are influenced by the love of Getsy for the running attack and RPO, with Fields running it or Fields rolling out after the play extends and then running.
Also, some passing and receiving numbers are greatly influenced by the initial wave of training camp/preseason injuries to the receiver corps.
Here are revised numbers for key Bears for use by fantasy players or anyone who loves number projections.
QB Justin Fields
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 15 starts, 455 attempts, 288 completions, 3,322 yards, 63.1% completed, 20 TDs, 10 INTs, 7.3 yards per attempt, 90.56 passer rating, 687 yards rushing, 100 attempts, 6 TDs.
2022 FanNation Projection: 16 starts, 466 attempts, 298 completions, 63.9% completed, 3,448 yards, 21 TDs, 11 interceptions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 91.39 passer rating, 627 yards rushing, 97 attempts, 5 TDs.
WR Darnell Mooney
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 72 receptions, 1,062 yards, 14.7 ypc., 6 TDs.
2022 FanNation Projection: 83 receptions, 1,145 yards, 13.8 ypc., 6 TDs.
TE Cole Kmet
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 56 receptions, 580 yards, 10.4 ypc., 3 TDs
2022 FanNation Projection for Kmet: 66 receptions, 700 yards, 10.1 ypc., 5 TDs.
RB David Montgomery
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 246 carries, 997 yards, 4.05 ypc., 8 TDs; 41 receptions, 369 yards, 9.0 ypc., 1 TD.
2022 FanNation Projection: 233 carries, 955 yards, 4.1 ypc, 8 TDs; 60 receptions, 481 yards, 2 TDs.
WR Byron Pringle
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 30 receptions, 401 yards, 13.6 ypc., 3 TDs.
2022 FanNation Projection: 53 receptions, 645 yards, 12.2 ypc., 5 TDs.
WR Velus Jones Jr.
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 24 receptions, 244 yards, 10.2 ypc., 1 TD; 11 carries, 48 yards, 0 TDs; 24 kick returns, 672 yards, 28.0 yards/return.
2022 FanNation Projection: 36 receptions, 369 yards, 2 TDs; 6 carries, 25 yards, 0 TDs; 18 kick returns, 450 yards, 25.0 ypr, 0 TDs.
WR Equanimeous St. Brown
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 18 receptions, 275 yards, 15.3 ypc., 1 TD
*No original projection due to forecasted lack of total production.
TE Ryan Griffin
Revised 2022 FanNation Projection: 17 receptions, 167 yards, 9.8 ypc., 1 TD.
2022 FanNation Projection: 23 receptions, 243 yards, 10.6 ypc. 2 TDs.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
