Bears Fail to Inspire Confidence in Latest Win Total Predictions From SI

Caleb Williams gives the Bears a sky-high ceiling in 2026, but it's hard to shake the ghost of Bears teams of the past.

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams calls the snap count at the line of scrimmage. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Even after a historic 2025 season for the Chicago Bears, some analysts still find it difficult to be all-in on this team in 2026. The Bears have given us false hope many times before just to crash back to Earth the very next year. So, it should come as no surprise that NFL analystGilberto Manzano's over/under win total predictions for all 32 teams sees the Bears ranked near the bottom of his confidence meter.

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson addresses the media at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Caleb Williams inspires confidence, but uncertainty still lurks in the shadows

Writing for Sports Illustrated, Manzano picked the Bears to hit the over on their projected win total of 9.5 games, meaning he's expecting them to win at least 10 games in 2026. However, he ranked them at No. 29 on his list, meaning this is one of his least confident bets.

Justifying his prediction, Manzano writes, "It’s easier to bet on more wins for Chicago because Caleb Williams proved last season he’s on the brink of superstardom. And usually with star QBs, nine wins is the floor. So, with an ascending Williams and a retooled secondary with the arrivals of safeties Dillon Thieneman and Coby Bryant, the Bears should pick up where they left off in a surprise 2025 season."

So why did Manzano rank Chicago so low on his confidence meter if he's so high on Caleb Williams? The answer is simple: decades of watching this historically incompetent franchise backslide after a fluke season. We all know that this current Bears team is wholly different from past Bears teams, but it's difficult to shake the feeling that we've seen this movie before, and that the ending never changes.

For what it's worth, Manzano picked both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions to also come in over their projected win totals of 8.5 and 10.5, respectively, but he takes the under on the Packers at 10.5 wins. If Manzano is right, then the NFC North will once again be a gauntlet of playoff teams.

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams calls the snap count from shotgun formation. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Bears fans shouldn't give in to the fear of another collapse

Regardless of the specters of the Bears' history, fans of the team shouldn't deliberately lower their expectations. In fact, there's an argument that many fans' expectations should be even higher. Colin Cowherd sees a Super Bowl ceiling for the Bears in 2026, and he was one of the Bears' biggest doubters a year ago. Our own Gene Chamberlain also made a compelling case, listing four reasons to ignore the 2026 regression warnings about this team.

As I mentioned earlier, this team is entirely different from those teams who crumbled under pressure in the past. Caleb Williams is not Rex Grossman or Mitch Trubisky, nor is he Justin Fields. Ben Johnson is not Matt Nagy or Matt Eberflus. This team is built on such strong fundamentals as a punishing run game and a sharp quarterback. These are the traditional bones of a perennial playoff team, not the flukey, one-hit-wonders.

The Bears may not have a great track record when it comes to following up successful seasons, but these players and coaches have given the fans every reason to believe that they're truly a different breed of Bears.

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams celebrates after a game against the Eagles. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Bottom Line

Manzano's prediction for the Bears is perfectly reasonable in every way. Picking the Bears to finish with at least 10 wins is a no-brainer when you look at how well they played last year, their first year with an all-new coaching staff and a still young quarterback. However, it's natural to not feel terribly confident about this pick when you consider the weight of history.

At the end of the day, all we can do at this point in the offseason is speculate. Football won't be played for another three and a half months, and that gives Bears fans plenty of time to fantasize of Tyson Bagent's Super Bowl prediction coming true.

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