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Bear Digest

Bears Go From Top Regression Candidate to an Elite Power Ranking

Ben Johnson might not have much to complain about if the power rankings start to follow this path after an offseason of doom-and-gloom predictions.
Gene Chamberlain|
QB Caleb Williams and the offense are the major reason for one Bears ranking that doesn't follow the regressive path.
QB Caleb Williams and the offense are the major reason for one Bears ranking that doesn't follow the regressive path. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

As preseason gets set to open for the rest of the NFL besides the first Bears regular-season opponent, Carolina, and the Arizona Cardinals, the words of coach Ben Johnson stood out even more.

Earlier in camp he had what seemed to be a cloaked war of words with Jaguars coach Liam Coen and actually took a shot at the offseason media forecasts for the Bears as well.

"Well, we're the No. 1 regression candidate," Johnson retorted after Coen had been complaining about how much media coverage Caleb Williams gets and the prime-time dates the Bears have as opposed to his team and QB Trevor Lawrence.

True enough, the offseason has been full of the Bears named as regression candidates. Whether it was CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NFL.com or any number of other outlets, the Bears are always named among top regression candidates and it's usually based on their toughest NFL schedule and how they won so many close games while winning the takeaway battle, as well. Then there are the Caleb Williams doubters who don't see him as capable of raising his completion percentage. That's an entirely different level of anti-Bears rhetoric.

What's important is how most of the predictions call for the Bears to decline, even though Vegas hasn't seen this as a likely path.

With preseason, various power rankings come out or come into sharper focus and few are calling the Bears a top team. That is, except for one. USA Today's Nate Davis is a veteran at putting out their power rankings and has never been particularly soft on the Bears. Davis has the Bears ranked a startling fifth overall. They're ahead of the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and both Detroit (10th) and Green Bay (14th).

Only the Rams (1), Seattle (2), Denver (3) and Buffalo (4) rate higher than the Bears in his power rankings.

Davis acknowledges all of their training camp secondary injuries, "But if an offense with so many young players at the skill positions can take a dramatic leap in Year 2 under Ben Johnson, then a team that reached the divisional round last season could well take the next step … maybe even two."

The next step would be the NFC Championship Game and two would be the, gasp, Super Bowl.

From regression to overrated

While this has to tickle Bears fans, even the most staunch supporters have to admit this is a reach to put them fifth. This is a team with pass rush and run defense as its biggest weakness last year. and the only thing they did to improve it was add backup help at tackle and get back an edge in Dayo Odeyingbo who hadn't done anything before suffering a Achilles tear. He looks remarkably healthy now considering it's only nine-plus months later but his production was the issue last year for half a season.

There's one very good reason to think such a high ranking is possible and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen touched on it Sunday at his press conference prior to practice. He had just come back from Canton, Ohio and the Hall of Fame induction for Drew Brees. Allen doesn't necessarily like comparing coaches but couldn't help but see the similarities between Johnson and his former Saints boss, current Broncos coach Sean Payton.

“I mean, I think I see a lot of the same qualities in terms of how the attacking mindset and not just how we practice offensively, but how we practice in general," Allen said. "The physicality and the effort level that's required is very similar to what we did in those years under Sean in New Orleans.

"So, you know, there's a lot of similarities as to how they coach and philosophically how they see the game.”

If Johnson rates up there already with Payton, a coach who has his team in the top three of these rankings, then perhaps this No. 5 rating isn't so wild after all. Someone with this type of resume can keep a team in Super Bowl consideration for long periods.

However, it's still a shock to the system to see such respect after so many predictions of collapse. And it also makes Johnson's retort to Coen a little less valid.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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