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Ben Johnson Is the Reason Bears Regression Forecasts May Be Dead Wrong

Regression warnings keep piling up on the Bears, but Ben Johnson's track record and Year 2 comfort in his offense may be Chicago's biggest edge.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson engineered last year's road domination of the defending Super Bowl champs and he's a good reason to pay attention to them again despite predictions of backsliding.
Ben Johnson engineered last year's road domination of the defending Super Bowl champs and he's a good reason to pay attention to them again despite predictions of backsliding. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Regression continues to be the theme dominating projections for the 2026 Chicago Bears season, although the reasons vary so much it's difficult to pinpoint one major cause.

One thing is certain: All of those who envision a Bears step back in QB Caleb Williams' third year fail to comprehend the real reason they took a step forward last year.

Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr released his annual 100 bold predictions for the NFL season and the Bears barely got a mention, which is usually a good thing.

Orr did pay tribute to Williams by saying he'll lead the NFC North in passing yards, and also mentioned Luther Burden having a big year, but the bottom line is he sees no repeat of their division title because the Lions not only will finish first but will lead the NFL in scoring and victories.

Apparently the Lions became good?

If the Bears are taking a step back, it actually seems more a case of the Lions taking a big step forward. They did finish last in 2025 so it would be a big step..

However, regression forecasts for Williams do exist all over the media and Pro Football Focus' Mark Chichester found a way to paint the outlook for the Bears quarterback in a less favorable light.

PFF's Chichester labeled Williams one of the luckier quarterbacks last year — eighth luckiest — by the way he escaped interceptions. Chichester had Green Bay's Jordan Love third luckiest, by the way. Although he makes no exact prediction about Williams for 2026, the implication from his story is Williams once again is a candidate for regression because of last year's perceived abnormally good luck.

The problem with the article is it bases Williams' status as eighth luckiest on the 12 interceptions he threw and how he was much worse at this than the previous year.

Of course, Williams didn't throw 12 interceptions. He threw seven and this was only one more than the previous year. Chichester is adding in Williams' postseason interceptions — five of them — to the total, and that's completely unfair. Why not use preseason stats too, then?

The postseason numbers should obviously not count because those attempts are ones numerous other quarterbacks do not get to make or were not good enough to make. A truly objective sample to weigh is the regular season alone, where everyone is an equal-opportunity interception thrower.

This article is enough to make anyone's head spin with the logic in it, and to yearn for those days when newsprint was too valuable to waste space. Cyberspace makes waste. This is a lengthy piece of gobbledygook using worthless hocus-pocus data.

The one piece of recent offseason analysis that does get it is an NFL.com piece by Tom Blair, the NFL media special projects lead. He wrote about the top six "buzzy" teams. Lo and behold, there among them are the buzziest team of last year, the Chicago Bears.

Ben Johnson has them buzzing

It is here where the essence of Bears improvement is pinpointed. It is none other than the man in whom they all trust, Ben Johnson. Orr and Chichester seemed to miss the Johnson effect, and it is the Bears' coach who drives that bus instead of their "lucky" quarterback.

Johnson has not failed to improve every offense year over year since taking over as a coordinator in Detroit in 2022.

Now he has a quarterback with better understanding of what good pro football play from a player at his position looks like and a year in the system. This would take an abysmal year by the defense or some key injuries to halt what Johnson set in motion last year.

Johnson's work is the reason they must be a "buzzy" team and one to take seriously this year even against a more difficult schedule.

"The offense was a legit powerhouse from Week 9 on, ranking fourth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.06), in the vicinity of true contenders like the Rams (No. 1), Patriots (No. 2) and 49ers (No. 3)," Blair wrote. The key performers on that side of the ball (Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai) are all back. I feel comfortable buying in on that unit to drive the bus again."

Actually, it's Johnson driving the bus and the others along for the ride.

As Illinois coach Brett Bielema observed on AM-670 The Score after a recent visit to Bears practice: "Ben is just on top of everything. Everybody in that building speaks his language."

The number Blair revealed is not one to be taken lightly. EPA is the analytic Johnson puts his faith in, and it's significant when the Bears were fourth league-wide against the second half of their schedule in 2025. The second half was easily their most difficult part of the schedule. They played five playoff teams in that stretch, including two games with the Packers. Yet, they were fourth in EPA per play on offense during the stretch.

This year's schedule is perceived as more difficult overall but doesn't have the murderous close they experienced last year.

What they do have is Johnson, and he's reason enough to believe they can do something similar again even if the analysts see regression as inevitable.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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