Bear Digest

Bears who own the upper hand in matchups against Green Bay

It's a case where Green Bay has strong matchups against the Bears defense but Ben Johnson's Bears can say the same in analysis of a battle for the NFC North lead.
Gene Chamberlain|
Jonah Jackson's blocking has complemented the strong Bears interior on the offensive line well.
Jonah Jackson's blocking has complemented the strong Bears interior on the offensive line well. | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

It's going to be a rematch in name only.

The Bears face the Packers 13 days after their last game but several key changes almost make this like a first game, especially the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons.

The Bears could find it easier since they don't need to alter their offensive plans to a drastic degree out of fear of one of the best NFL pass rushers. Then again, the Packers' defense had given the Bears past problems without Parsons.

"Any time you play a team in the division, there are certainly elements you look at from the first game of what you did well, what you didn't do well," coach Ben Johnson said. "You try to make sure that you don't make the same mistakes and try to continue to attack them in a certain fashion. There are things that I thought we did well that first game, particularly in the second half. We played a lot better on offense in that regard.

"They're changing. Micah is out. You're trying to forecast what they might do to match certain personnel groups or slow down our run game. That's a difficult thing to do when that injury happened last game. We have to be prepared to adjust and play accordingly."

It could make certain receivers easier to get the ball to with more time for Caleb Williams to throw from the pocket.

There are any number of ways the Bears could find more ways to attack.

Here are the best matchups favoring the Bears in Saturday night's Bears and Packers rematch.

LG Joe Thuney vs. DT Karl Brooks

Brooks hasn't been a pushover as a pass rusher inside as he is in the top 20 for pass rush win rate but good luck with that. He's going aginast the highest-rated guard for pass block win rate according to ESPN and Pro Football Focus' highest graded guard for pass blocking. ESPN's run block win rate has Thuney fourth best among interior offensive linemen. Brooks is graded 85th out of 129 defensive tackles by PFF with one sack, eight tackles, and is graded 97th as a run defender.

RG Jonah Jackson vs. DT Colby Wooden

Wooden is graded by Pro Football Focus as the worst tackler of any Packers regular on defense and is 82nd of 129 for overall grade as a defensive tackle. The Bears really pushed around the Green Bay defensive front throughout the second half of the first game, mainly with the running game but also by wearing them down by moving Caleb Williams around so much in bootlegs and rollouts. That's not the kind of game that caters to defensive tackles. Jackson has the eighth-best pass block win rate among interior offensive linemen in the NFL according to ESPN analytics, and PFF grades Jackson the 12th best guard overall in the league among 78 guards. If either Jackson or Thuney needed help with these interior players, Drew Dalman is No. 7 in pass block win rate among interior offensive linemen.

LB Tremaine Edmunds vs. TE Luke Musgrave

It would appear Edmunds is returning from injury and if he needs to take a rest the Bears have the NFC defensive player of the week backing him up in D'Marco Jackson. Edmunds is graded the 10th best linebacker against the run while playing now on the weakside, but against the pass PFF says he's less effective. That's not a thought universally supported. Pro Football Reference/Stathead has him with nine pass breakups, four interceptions and a ridiculously effective 66.4 passer rating against when targeted. Musgrave replaced injured Tucker Kraft and has 21 receptions. Jordan Love has a 92.9 passer rating when targeting Musgrave but a 101.9 passer rating overall.

TE Colston Loveland vs. CB Javon Bullard

The Bears are going to be using Loveland an awful lot as a slot receiver because of injuries to receivers Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze. Loveland has height and strength to give safeties or slot cornerbacks like Bullard trouble. Loveland has 34 receptions in the last nine games and four TDs on the year after a slow start with only fiv catches in the first four games. Bullard has improved over last year but is still at 98.7 for a passer rating against and allows 78.4% completions. He's giving up eight inches to Loveland, who is 6-foot-6, in this matchup.

DE Montez Sweat vs. T Darian Kinnard

Montez Sweat's pass rush amped up with 7 1/2 of his eight sacks over the last nine games. He has nine of his team-high 12 tackles for loss in that period, as well. He'll most likely go against tackle replacement Darrian Kinnard due to the injury to starting right tackle Zach Tom.  Kinnard, a former Eagles and Chiefs bench/special tams player, has started only two games in his pro career. He hasn't been bad for a backup in only 215 play reps overall but Sweat represents a real elevation in competition level.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.